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Saturday, December 3, 2016
Bishop Barron's Advent Reflections: How Can We Fully Enter Into Advent
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Bishop Barron's Deaily Gospel Reflection Saturday, December 3, 2016
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So, Why Can't You Call Taiwan?
So, Why Can't You Call Taiwan?
https://www.theatlantic.com/
It’s hardly remembered now, having been overshadowed a few months later on September 11, but the George W. Bush administration’s first foreign-policy crisis came in the South China Sea. On April 1, 2001, a U.S. Navy surveillance plane collided with a Chinese jet near Hainan Island. The pilot of the Chinese jet was killed, and the American plane was forced to land and its crew was held hostage for 11 days, until a diplomatic agreement was worked out. Sino-American relations remained tense for some time.
Unlike Bush, Donald Trump didn’t need to wait to be inaugurated to set off a crisis in the relationship. He managed that on Friday, with a phone call to the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. It’s a sharp breach with protocol, but it’s also just the sort that underscores how weird and incomprehensible some important protocols are. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/12/trump-taiwan/509474/
Friday, December 2, 2016
Pakistan and the Gulf: Feathered Diplomacy
http://lobelog.com/pakistan-
Every winter the ordeal resumes. Arab royals and their entourages arrive in the deserts of Pakistan, and set themselves upon a small and unassuming migratory bird. Releasing their falcons into the sky, the sheikhs tear through the provinces of Balochistan, Sindh, and Punjab, following the hunt from air-conditioned SUVs. Their prey, the houbara bustard, is shy and reclusive; its beige and white speckled feathers help it blend into arid surroundings. But camouflage alone cannot save it – excessive hunting has decimated its numbers and placed it on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s list of threatened species. And its plight doesn’t end there. The birds are also illegally exported to the Gulf for the purpose of training falcons.
Though hunting the houbara is officially banned in Pakistan, the federal government regularly issues special hunting permits to Arab dignitaries, a practice it has rather blithely admitted to being “a cornerstone of foreign policy.” Such permits usually allow for the deaths of 100 birds within a maximum hunting period of 10 days. In January 2014, however, Saudi prince Fahd bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud embarked on a three-week rampage that slaughtered 2,100 birds in Balochistan.
By March, Saudi Arabia had donated $1.5 billion to Pakistan, which “contributed to a sharp recovery of the Pakistani rupee…it’s strongest rally in 30 years,” according to the country’s oldest English-language daily. The government referred to the grant only as a “gift for the people of Pakistan,” stirring speculation among analysts and the media. In the face of such kind gifts, what were a few feathers? http://lobelog.com/pakistan-and-the-gulf-feathered-diplomacy/#more-36952
Pakistan and the Gulf: Feathered Diplomacy
by Alia P. AhmedEvery winter the ordeal resumes. Arab royals and their entourages arrive in the deserts of Pakistan, and set themselves upon a small and unassuming migratory bird. Releasing their falcons into the sky, the sheikhs tear through the provinces of Balochistan, Sindh, and Punjab, following the hunt from air-conditioned SUVs. Their prey, the houbara bustard, is shy and reclusive; its beige and white speckled feathers help it blend into arid surroundings. But camouflage alone cannot save it – excessive hunting has decimated its numbers and placed it on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s list of threatened species. And its plight doesn’t end there. The birds are also illegally exported to the Gulf for the purpose of training falcons.
Though hunting the houbara is officially banned in Pakistan, the federal government regularly issues special hunting permits to Arab dignitaries, a practice it has rather blithely admitted to being “a cornerstone of foreign policy.” Such permits usually allow for the deaths of 100 birds within a maximum hunting period of 10 days. In January 2014, however, Saudi prince Fahd bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud embarked on a three-week rampage that slaughtered 2,100 birds in Balochistan.
By March, Saudi Arabia had donated $1.5 billion to Pakistan, which “contributed to a sharp recovery of the Pakistani rupee…it’s strongest rally in 30 years,” according to the country’s oldest English-language daily. The government referred to the grant only as a “gift for the people of Pakistan,” stirring speculation among analysts and the media. In the face of such kind gifts, what were a few feathers? http://lobelog.com/pakistan-and-the-gulf-feathered-diplomacy/#more-36952
“Mad Dog” Mattis: Trump’s Least Belligerent Foreign Policy Advisor?
http://lobelog.com/mad-dog-
During a surreal, post-election “campaign rally” in Cincinnati on Thursday night, President-elect Donald Trump announced (or, to be completely accurate, announced that he would be announcing) that he’s selected retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis as his nominee for secretary of defense. Prior to his retirement from the military, Mattis served as the commander of U.S. Central Command from August 2010 through March 2013.
In terms of policy, Mattis is known first and foremost as an Iran hawk, as Jim Lobe wrote about several days ago:
“Mad Dog” Mattis: Trump’s Least Belligerent Foreign Policy Advisor?
by Derek DavisonDuring a surreal, post-election “campaign rally” in Cincinnati on Thursday night, President-elect Donald Trump announced (or, to be completely accurate, announced that he would be announcing) that he’s selected retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis as his nominee for secretary of defense. Prior to his retirement from the military, Mattis served as the commander of U.S. Central Command from August 2010 through March 2013.
In terms of policy, Mattis is known first and foremost as an Iran hawk, as Jim Lobe wrote about several days ago:
Mattis described five military threats posed by Iran to the U.S. and/or its regional allies: the “latent threat of the nuclear weapons program,” the counter-maritime program, the ballistic missile program, cyberwar, and the threat posed by Iranian-backed militias, such as Hezbollah. He clearly sees the JCPOA as neutralizing the nuclear threat for defensible reasons but suggests that the others need to be addressed more aggressively.http://lobelog.com/mad-dog-mattis-trumps-least-belligerent-foreign-policy-advisor/#more-36963
One key passage also suggests that Mattis believes that the Islamic State (ISIS or IS) and Iran are somehow in cahoots. It came when he was talking about the perception among U.S. allies in the region that the Obama administration was at best indifferent to Iran’s alleged activities and, at worst, somehow making “common cause with Iran, Russia, and Assad…”:
I consider ISIS nothing more than an excuse for Iran to continue its mischief [in the region]. Iran is not an enemy of ISIS; they have a lot to gain from the turmoil that ISIS creates.
I would just point out one question for you to look into: What is the one country in the Middle East that has not been attacked by ISIS? One. That is Iran. That is more than happenstance, I’m sure.
WPR Articles Nov. 23 — Dec. 2
WPR Articles Nov. 23 — Dec. 2
The Risks of a Trump Administration Dominated by Former Military Officers
By: Steven Metz | Column
Appointing
military officers to a presidential administration is an American
tradition. In the past, though, it has been the exception rather than
the norm. That may be changing, with Donald Trump considering an
unprecedented number of former officers for Cabinet positions. Is this a
cause for concern?
Bachelet’s Labor Policy Leaves No One Happy in Chile
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
A
month-long strike by Chile’s public sector employees ended earlier this
month after workers failed to win a pay increase of 7 percent and
instead accepted President Michelle Bachelet’s initial proposal of a 3.2
percent raise. In an email interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses labor
relations in Chile.
Energy Demands Increasingly Shape China’s Behavior in the South China Sea
By: Sagatom Saha, Quinn Marschik | Briefing
Nationalism
and militarization are in part driving China’s aggressive posture in
the South China Sea. But leaning too heavily on these explanations
conceals a third factor behind Beijing’s maritime claims: a burgeoning
energy demand. The U.S. must adapt its own strategy accordingly.
Iran Struggles to Grow Its Economy While Adapting to Climate Change
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Lake
Urmia in northwestern Iran has become a symbol of the dangers of climate
change, having lost 90 percent of its water since the 1970s. Iran has
pledged $5 million for conservation efforts, but it is unclear if the
lake can be saved. In an email interview, Gary Lewis discussed Iran’s
climate change policy.
Fragile and Failed States Could Get in the Way of Trump’s “America First” Agenda
By: Connie Veillette | Briefing
President-elect
Donald Trump will soon be confronted with global challenges that will
test his popular campaign rhetoric of “America First.” Trump’s foreign
policy team may find that agenda difficult to implement, since
instability and conflict in other parts of the world do not respect
state borders.
Can Cooler Heads Prevail in the South China Sea?
By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing
Since
an international tribunal ruled in July that China’s claims to the
South China Sea lacked legal basis, key actors have tried to ease
tensions. Despite progress, translating these gains into sustainable
solutions for the disagreements between China and five other claimants
will prove difficult.
In India, Women’s Issues Make Headlines, but Not Progress
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
India’s
minister for women recently declared that the country’s rape problem
was exaggerated, and that the Indian media’s overemphasis on rape was
negatively affecting tourism. In an email interview, Nandita Bhatla, of
the International Center for Research on Women, discusses women’s rights
in India.
The Battle to Repair Iraq’s Social Fabric, Beyond Mosul’s Front Lines
By: Matthew Schweitzer | Briefing
With
international attention focused on the battle for Mosul, there is an
ongoing crisis on a forgotten battlefield in another part of northern
Iraq. Predominantly Sunni towns like Hawija are a test for whether
Iraq’s government and its proxies can mend ties and calm sectarian
tensions.
To Counter Populism, Start by Taking Globalization’s Discontents Seriously
By: Judah Grunstein | Column
The
U.S. presidential election offered a clear example of how emotion and
affect increasingly drive political behavior. But now that the shock of
Donald Trump’s victory has worn off, resolve, and not despair, must be
the order of the day for those who would seek to shore up the liberal
international order.
Can South Africa’s ANC Survive Zuma’s Culture of Corruption?
By: James Hamill | Briefing
Even
by the standards of his corrupt and largely disgraced presidency, the
past month in South Africa has represented a nadir for Jacob Zuma. Has
this notorious survivor finally run out of time? The ruling African
National Congress, split between rival factions, finds itself in a
no-win position.
Can Trump Calm European Nerves Over His Election?
By: Magnus Nordenman | Briefing
The
surprise election of Donald Trump as America’s 45th president has upset
long-standing assumptions about America’s role in the world. America’s
European friends and allies are among those most worried about the
future U.S. role in Europe, at a time when the continent is surrounded
by instability.
Vulnerable to Climate Change, Costa Rica Works to Become a Carbon-Free Economy
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last
month, Costa Rica ratified the Paris Agreement. After the vote, the
environment minister said, “Costa Rica showed the world that it has the
courage to take bold and timely decisions to work for a sustainable
development.” In an interview, Mariel Yglesias discusses Costa Rica’s
climate change policy.
Will the U.N. Post Make Nikki Haley Wish She Was Back in South Carolina?
By: Richard Gowan | Column
U.N.
officials who feared that Donald Trump would nominate a unilateralist
firebrand as ambassador hope that Nikki Haley is someone they can do
business with. But if she struggles, it may not be due to her lack of
foreign policy experience, but because of flaws in both the U.S. and
U.N. systems.
How West Africa Became Fertile Ground for AQIM and ISIS
By: Anouar Boukhars | Feature
Al-Qaida
in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates have expanded their footprint
in the Sahel and West Africa, looking to economic hubs and coastal
areas that had previously been spared from violence. Unless regional
governments and international actors change strategy, instability will
likely deepen.
Nigeria Looks to Untapped Mineral Riches to Revive Its Oil-Dependent Economy
By: Matthew C. DuPee | Briefing
Nigeria’s
expansive but untapped mineral wealth is no secret. With sagging global
oil prices and an ongoing local insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta,
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is moving to
develop plans to diversify the economy, with its sights set on the
mining sector.
Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive Under Trump—and at What Cost?
By: Ellen Laipson | Column
Despite
Donald Trump’s tough talk about canceling the Iran nuclear deal during
the presidential campaign, it appears he may let the agreement remain in
effect. But hostility to Iran seems rampant among his advisers, meaning
the spirit of the agreement will likely be violated, with serious
costs.
Local Governance Vacuums Are at the Heart of Mexico’s Teachers’ Protests
By: Jerónimo Mohar, Benoît Gomis | Briefing
The
Mexican state of Michoacan is not only a bastion of drug cartels, but of
a dissident teachers’ union vehemently opposed to education reforms.
The same conditions that allowed organized crime and vigilante groups to
flourish there are providing fertile ground for the teachers’ union to
wreak havoc.
The Costs of Uncertainty With Trump’s Trade Policies
By: Kimberly Ann Elliott | Briefing
No
matter who was elected president on Nov. 8, there was going to be a
pause in U.S. trade policy. Donald Trump said he would go much further
than Hillary Clinton, but there is uncertainty about what Trump will
actually do once in office. Here is a rundown of key trade issues that
Trump will face.
Why Trump’s ‘America First’ Could End Up Getting Left Behind
By: Judah Grunstein | Column
The
irony of Fidel Castro’s death is that, in closing the symbolic book on
the Cold War, it accentuates the feeling that we are living through the
closing moments of the post-Cold War period. A level of uncertainty has
been introduced into national, regional and global politics not seen
since 1991.
Arab Rulers Are Happy to See Obama Go, but Uncertain About Trump
By: Frida Ghitis | Column
Barack
Obama ran for president in 2008 vowing to improve ties with the Arab
and Islamic world. In contrast, Donald Trump promised to get tough on
Muslims. It’s ironic, then, that Arab capitals are relieved to see Obama
leave, and hopeful that Trump will align the U.S. more closely with
their concerns.
Political Gains Haven’t Translated to Social Gains for Rwanda’s Women
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last
month, the African Union praised Rwanda for its inclusion of women in
government—women make up 64 percent of the lower house of parliament—and
encouraged other African countries to follow Rwanda’s lead on gender
equality. In an email interview, Pamela Abbott discusses women’s rights
in Rwanda.
Germany’s Right-Wing Identity Movements Offer a Cautionary Tale for the U.S.
By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines
In
Germany, the emergence of a new right-wing movement has not been limited
to the political class. The forces underpinning the rise of the
far-right party Alternative for Germany have galvanized grass-roots
groups demanding an end to immigration and what they call the
Islamization of Germany.
How Much Damage Will India’s Cash Crisis Do to the Economy, and to Modi?
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
On
Nov. 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500-rupee and
1,000-rupee notes would be withdrawn from circulation, a move designed
to tackle corruption that has created chaos and disproportionately
affected India’s poor. In an email interview, Jan Breman discusses
India’s informal economy.
Populist Fears and Corruption Woes Put the Spotlight on Romania’s Elections
By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing
Wedged
between Central Europe, the Balkans and the former Soviet Union,
Romania’s strategic importance is often overlooked. Parliamentary
election on Dec. 5
may not change its pro-U.S. and pro-EU alignment, despite concerns
about waning U.S. interest and risks to independent institutions.
West Africa in the Crosshairs of AQIM and ISIS
By: The Editors | Trend Lines
In
this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein,
and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss Fidel Castro’s death and
the implications for reform in Cuba and ties with the U.S. For the
Report, Anouar Boukhars talks with Peter Dörrie about militancy in West
Africa.
The End of Globalism Where China and the United States Go From Here
December 2, 2016
When it rains, it pours. As the Great Recession, eurozone crisis,
stalled trade deals, increased conflict between Russia and the West,
electoral revolts against European political elites, and finally Brexit followed the 2008 financial meltdown, the fact that globalization was running out of steam
should have been obvious to all. Yet most of its converts were blind,
and even the fiercest rebels against globalization never expected to
claim the top prize—the White House—and so soon.
World powers are now scrambling to react to Donald Trump’s paradigm-shifting election as president of the United States. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, after repeatedly expressing concern about a potential Trump presidency and pointedly meeting with only Hillary Clinton before the election, rushed to New York for face time with the president-elect. European leaders have been more ambivalent, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel even putting conditions on working with Trump. And the Russians have seemed downright gleeful; in a congratulatory note, Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote that Trump’s victory could bring “a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the principles of equality, mutual respect and real consideration.” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-12-02/end-globalism
The End of Globalism
Where China and the United States Go From Here
World powers are now scrambling to react to Donald Trump’s paradigm-shifting election as president of the United States. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, after repeatedly expressing concern about a potential Trump presidency and pointedly meeting with only Hillary Clinton before the election, rushed to New York for face time with the president-elect. European leaders have been more ambivalent, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel even putting conditions on working with Trump. And the Russians have seemed downright gleeful; in a congratulatory note, Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote that Trump’s victory could bring “a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the principles of equality, mutual respect and real consideration.” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-12-02/end-globalism
Trump Versus China: What’s Really at Stake
Trump Versus China: What’s Really at Stake
Why you should care
Because nature abhors a geopolitical vacuum, too.The economy of Asia is likely to drive the 21st century. Leaders of most nations would believe the United States should maintain and even expand its role there. And yet, the U.S. runs a very high risk of doing exactly the opposite — turning away from the region and ceding its leadership in Asia.http://www.ozy.com/pov/trump-versus-china-whats-really-at-stake/74298
Rethinking U.S. National Security
Rethinking U.S. National Security
A New Role for International Development
Now that SecDef thinks Israeli Occupation is Apartheid, will the Lobby Blackballing Fail?
http://www.juancole.com/2016/1
The interview of Gen. James Mattis by Wolf Blitzer at Aspen in 2013, in which the recently-retired former CENTCOM commander spoke freely on Middle East policy, has come back to haunt him now that Donald Trump has put him forward as the next Secretary of Defense. At a time when the US has ground troops in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, however, it is not his position on those conflicts that is controversial. It is his remarks on Secretary of State John Kerry’s attempts at peace talks between Israel and Palestine . Alternet quoted him as saying:
Now that SecDef thinks Israeli Occupation is Apartheid, will the Lobby Blackballing Fail?
By Juan Cole | (Informed Comment) | – –The interview of Gen. James Mattis by Wolf Blitzer at Aspen in 2013, in which the recently-retired former CENTCOM commander spoke freely on Middle East policy, has come back to haunt him now that Donald Trump has put him forward as the next Secretary of Defense. At a time when the US has ground troops in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, however, it is not his position on those conflicts that is controversial. It is his remarks on Secretary of State John Kerry’s attempts at peace talks between Israel and Palestine . Alternet quoted him as saying:
“So we’ve got to work on [peace talks] with a sense of urgency. I paid a military security price every day as a commander of CENTCOM because the Americans were seen as biased in support of Israel, and [because of this] moderate Arabs couldn’t be with us because they couldn’t publicly support those who don’t show respect for Arab Palestinians.”http://www.juancole.com/2016/12/occupation-apartheid-blackballing.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
A multitude of rivals
http://www.newstatesman.com/
Well, who’d have thought it? Another popular insurgency in the series that started in Tunis in late 2010. The gift that keeps on giving. Only this time it has hit the United States, to the bemusement of those who like their liberal internationalism neat and any populist revolutions a long way from home. The same people who misread the Arab uprisings of 2011 and continue to believe magically that movements based on the word of God will embrace tolerance and inclusivity seem shocked that some Americans have decided to have an uprising of their own.
A multitude of rivals
Unless Donald Trump is able to master geopolitical complexity, the trouble in the Middle East will get far worse.
Well, who’d have thought it? Another popular insurgency in the series that started in Tunis in late 2010. The gift that keeps on giving. Only this time it has hit the United States, to the bemusement of those who like their liberal internationalism neat and any populist revolutions a long way from home. The same people who misread the Arab uprisings of 2011 and continue to believe magically that movements based on the word of God will embrace tolerance and inclusivity seem shocked that some Americans have decided to have an uprising of their own.
None of this will be lost on the leaders or people of the Middle East.
My guess is they will be a lot less shocked than commentators in the US
and Europe are. After all, the blurring of business and politics, the
instrumentalisation of identity, ambiguity about where the public good
ends and personal advantage begins and an often casual attitude to facts
are characteristic of the politics of the region. More fundamentally,
relations between states in the Middle East and North Africa are
transactional; most significant trade flows are in commodities; and
conflict within and between states is endemic. The region politically
looks far more like the Hobbesian world of early-modern Europe than it
does the Kantian dream of the European Union. Donald Trump talks like a
mercantilist: Barack Obama talks like a Rawlsian idealist. Most Arab,
Israeli or Iranian leaders are more comfortable with the former than the
latter. http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/11/multitude-rivals
Senate votes unanimously to extend Iran sanctions
Senate votes unanimously to extend Iran sanctions
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/senate-iran-sanctions-vote-232061
Egypt and Saudi Arabia: Marriage on the Rocks?
http://lobelog.com/egypt-and-
For several decades, the alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has served as an anchor of a pro-Western geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Dating back to the 1970s, Cairo and Riyadh’s mutual interests and concerns about common threats and shared opportunities have fostered strong ties between the Arab world’s most populous state and its wealthiest one.
Egypt, which has faced major security, political, and economic challenges in recent years, has grown quite dependent on the oil-rich kingdom for financial aid. The Saudis, long reliant on external support for defense, have counted on Egypt as a strong and experienced military force to confront what they perceive to be Iran’s expansionist and “aggressive” operations throughout the region.
Recently, however, the Cairo-Riyadh relationship has significantly deteriorated. In October, Egypt sided with Russia in yet another clash within the United Nations Security Council over Syria by voting with Moscow in favor of a Russian resolution that argued for a ceasefire in Syria excluding Aleppo. The move felt like an unexpected betrayal for Saudi Arabia, which for years has strongly opposed the axis crafted in Syria among Moscow, Tehran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Damascus. Abdullah al-Muallami, Riyadh’s envoy to the U.N., called Cairo’s vote “painful,” Just a few days later, Saudi Aramco announced its intention to suspend deliveries of petroleum to Egypt, a country that is constantly at risk of energy crises. http://lobelog.com/egypt-and-saudi-arabia-marriage-on-the-rocks/#more-36960
Egypt and Saudi Arabia: Marriage on the Rocks?
by Cinzia Bianco and Giorgio CafieroFor several decades, the alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has served as an anchor of a pro-Western geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Dating back to the 1970s, Cairo and Riyadh’s mutual interests and concerns about common threats and shared opportunities have fostered strong ties between the Arab world’s most populous state and its wealthiest one.
Egypt, which has faced major security, political, and economic challenges in recent years, has grown quite dependent on the oil-rich kingdom for financial aid. The Saudis, long reliant on external support for defense, have counted on Egypt as a strong and experienced military force to confront what they perceive to be Iran’s expansionist and “aggressive” operations throughout the region.
Recently, however, the Cairo-Riyadh relationship has significantly deteriorated. In October, Egypt sided with Russia in yet another clash within the United Nations Security Council over Syria by voting with Moscow in favor of a Russian resolution that argued for a ceasefire in Syria excluding Aleppo. The move felt like an unexpected betrayal for Saudi Arabia, which for years has strongly opposed the axis crafted in Syria among Moscow, Tehran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Damascus. Abdullah al-Muallami, Riyadh’s envoy to the U.N., called Cairo’s vote “painful,” Just a few days later, Saudi Aramco announced its intention to suspend deliveries of petroleum to Egypt, a country that is constantly at risk of energy crises. http://lobelog.com/egypt-and-saudi-arabia-marriage-on-the-rocks/#more-36960
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