WPR Articles 31 Dec 2011 - 06 Jan 2012

The New Rules: A Foreign Policy Wish List for 2012

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column

Last year was a tough one in terms of global economics, humanitarian disasters and political leadership among the world's great powers. But it was also the year of the Arab Spring and hints of similar developments in Myanmar, Russia and Ethiopia. So while the year's "fundamentals" weren't so good, it left us with plenty to be grateful for. Keeping all that in mind, here is my foreign policy wish list for 2012.

Global Insights: Righting Trans-Atlantic Defense Spending in 2012

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The past year was an eventful one for NATO, but despite the success of the alliance's intervention in Libya, persistent problems will continue to affect trans-Atlantic defense relations in the New Year. The U.S. will need to redouble its efforts to get European member states to commit resources to defense capabilities, with the NATO Summit this May providing an opportunity for high-level attention to the issue.

Over the Horizon: Trouble Ahead for Russia's Triangle Arms Trade

By: Robert Farley | Column

Since the end of the Cold War, the Russian arms industry has sustained itself by arming China and India. However, this situation is almost certainly unsustainable in the long run, as both countries appear to be outgrowing their dependence on the Russian military-industrial complex. This will spell trouble for Russia, which has had great difficulty developing exports based on anything other than arms or energy.

World Citizen: In Changing Region, Hamas Faces Urgent Choices

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The ongoing transformation of the Middle East has affected every government and every political organization in the region. In the case of Hamas, the Arab Spring has brought a disorienting combination of extremely good and extremely bad news. Hamas now faces a starkly different world with conflicting forces at play. More importantly for the Hamas leadership, it must urgently make some very difficult decisions.

The Realist Prism: U.S.-China Relationship Could Hang on Biden, Xi

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

According to an unconfirmed report this week, Vice President Joe Biden has been tasked with overseeing U.S.-China relations. While improvements at the margins can be expected, Biden’s appointment is unlikely to achieve any major breakthroughs. In part, this is because some fundamental U.S. and Chinese interests are at loggerheads, and even an improved dialogue mechanism cannot bridge the divide.

More

For Regional Powers, Economic Interests Trump Principled Policy in Myanmar

By: Roberto Tofani | Briefing

In 2011, Myanmar astonished the international community with a series of political openings that led even U.S. President Barack Obama to see "flickers of progress." The moves seem to have launched a regional race among the country's neighbors for gaining a "special relationship" with the former pariah state, but it is doubtful that increased economic engagement will strengthen Myanmar's nascent democracy.

U.S. Sanctions One Factor Among Many Behind Iran's Currency Slide

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing

Iran’s exchange rate is experiencing unusual volatility, with the U.S. dollar and the euro both rising by more than 25 percent against the Iranian rial over the past three weeks. While new U.S. sanctions targeting the Iranian central bank have played a role in the exchange-rate volatility, a cluster of domestic policy moves and private-sector trends have also played a major role in the rial’s slide.

Transnistria Vote Highlights Tension Between Values and Interests

By: Matthew Rojansky | Briefing

On Dec. 25, Yevgeny Shevchuk, a young reformer, was elected president of Transnistria by a landslide. It was a triumph for democracy in a remote corner of Southeastern Europe that few outside the neighborhood would have had any reason to notice. But it is worth noting, as Shevchuk's victory offers a larger lesson at a time when popular democratic movements are shaking the foundations of governments worldwide.

Cutting Through the Rhetoric on Defense Sequestration

By: Veronique de Rugy | Briefing

The prospect of $500 billion in cuts to the U.S. defense budget from 2013-2021 has Washington in a panic. In unveiling an updated military strategy yesterday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned that such cuts would lead to a “demoralized and hollow force.” We should not allow such claims to scare us into letting the Pentagon off the hook. The cuts would indispose the Pentagon, not destroy it.

From Trend Lines:

Ethiopia's Oromo Liberation Front Shifts from Violence to Politics

Hamas' Haniyeh Strengthens Ties with Turkey

The Rise of the American Oligarchy By MICHAEL KINSLEY

 

The Rise of the American Oligarchy

By MICHAEL KINSLEY

 

'Pity the Billionaire'

By THOMAS FRANK
Reviewed by MICHAEL KINSLEY

Thomas Frank argues that conservative politicians and President Obama are governing to please the plutocrats.

Judy Miller Alert! The New York Times Misleads About Iran's Nuclear Program

It's deja vu all over again. AIPAC is trying to trick America into
another catastrophic war with a Middle Eastern country on behalf of
the Likud Party's colonial ambitions, and the New York Times is
misleading its readers about allegations that said country is
developing "weapons of mass destruction."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/ny-times-iran_b_1189407.html

FAIR has an alert up:

FAIR: NYT Misleads Readers on Iran Crisis
Paper disappears some inaccurate reporting
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=4454

Panetta's Remarks on the Defense Strategic Review

Panetta's Remarks on the Defense Strategic Review

from CFR.org - The Council on Foreign Relations by Leon Panetta

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta gave these remarks on the defense strategic review, "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense", at the Pentagon on January 5, 2012.

Right Now the Debt Crisis is European, But the Problem is Global

Right Now the Debt Crisis is European, But the Problem is Global

Why Not Attack Iran?

http://warisacrime.org/iran

[N.B. Both the map and the defense-spending chart below are of dubious accuracy.  The US now has no bases in Saudi Arabia.  The estimate of Chinese defense spending is the grossly inflated figure used by DOD to justify bigger defense budgets here.  Still, Mr. Swanson makes many valid points.]

Why Not Attack Iran?

By David Swanson, DontAttackIran.org
The push to attack Iran has been on for so long that entire categories of arguments for it (such as that the Iranians are fueling the Iraqi resistance) have come and gone. At DontAttackIran.org we've been collecting the arguments for and against attacking Iran for years. We've campaigned against an attack, but never been able to claim a success, because decisions not to launch wars are never announced, because those pushing for wars never give up, and because those believing what their government tells them think the Pentagon never campaigns for wars but is forced into them defensively on short notice by attacks from evildoers.

One Nation, Under Arms

The private papers of the late George F. Kennan, Cold War architect and diplomat extraordinaire, reveal his anguish over the way his famous 1947 warning about Soviet expansionism helped transform the America he loved into one he no longer recognized: a national-security state. A half-century after a similarly historic warning—President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s speech about the dangers of a powerful “military-industrial complex”—Todd S. Purdum shows how completely Kennan’s and Eisenhower’s worst fears have been realized, warping almost every aspect of society, deflecting attention from urgent problems, and splitting the country into two classes.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/01/Todd-Purdum-on-National-Security

Mitt Romney embraces the neocons by MJ Rosenberg, Foreign Policy Matters

Mitt Romney embraces the neocons

by MJ Rosenberg, Foreign Policy Matters

http://nationalinterest.org/article/reviving-the-peace-process-6281

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Reviving the Peace Process

Daniel Kurtzer

Ron Paul And The Banks from The Baseline Scenario by Simon Johnson By Simon Johnson

Ron Paul And The Banks

from The Baseline Scenario by Simon Johnson

By Simon Johnson

Ponzi Planet The Danger Debt Poses to the Western World By Alexander Jung

Ponzi Planet

The Danger Debt Poses to the Western World

By Alexander Jung

Obama unveils new defense strategy

Thursday, January 5, 2012

President Obama Unveils New U.S. Military Strategy -- News Roundup 

http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2012/01/president-obama-unveils-new-us-military.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WarNewsUpdates+%28War+News+Updates%29

Obama announces new, leaner military approach -- Washington Post
Obama Vows US Will Stay World's Top Military Power -- ABC News/AP
Obama: Defense cuts will mean 'leaner' U.S. military forces -- L.A. Times
Obama touts strategy for 'leaner' US military -- AFP
Obama unveils plans for pared-down military -- CNN
Obama announces Pentagon budget cuts -- USA Today
Obama unveils new strategy for 'leaner' US military -- BBC
Obama Describes Refocused Strategy for Leaner Military -- New York Times
Obama Unveils Defense Strategy for a Changing, Austere World -- National Journal
Obama Unveils New Military Shaped by Budget Cuts -- Voice of America
Obama reveals 'leaner' US defence strategy -- Al Jazeera
Barack Obama sets out plans for leaner military in historic strategy shift -- The Guardian
Obama defense plan would end ability to fight two conventional wars at once -- New York Daily News
Pentagon chief: Smaller military means extra risk -- Yahoo News/AP

Strategic Review Suggests Potential New U.S. Nuke Cuts -- Global Security Newswire
Pentagon Emphasizes Asia-Pacific, Cyber -- Bloomberg
New strategy to keep up spy technology funding -- Reuters
Panetta Said to Eye 14 Percent Cut in Army -- Military.com
U.S. To Drop Long-War Ability, Focus on Pacific -- Defense News
U.S.’s leaner military ‘turning a page’ on a decade of war: Obama -- National Post
Obama's Strategy for Trimmed Military -- Robert Burns, Time/AP
DoD’s “21st century priorities” -- Phillip Ewing, DoD Buzz
Obama Unveils Defense Cuts While Iran Threatens War -- KT McFarland, FOX News
New Obama Strategy Looks Misguided, Predictable, Underwhelming -- August Cole, Aol Defense
What the DoD’s New Strategy Means for Our Newest Tech -- Defense Tech
Tomorrow’s Pentagon: Doing Less, With More -- Mark Thompson, Time
Obama’s New Defense Plan: Drones, Spec Ops and Cyber War -- Spencer Ackerman, The Danger Room

WNU Editor: The document that outlines U.S. military strategies for the 21rst century can be found here.

Quick reactions to the Obama strategy roll-out from Shadow Government by Peter Feaver

Quick reactions to the Obama strategy roll-out

from Shadow Government by Peter Feaver

The need for honest risk assessment from Shadow Government by Kori Schake

The need for honest risk assessment

from Shadow Government by Kori Schake

A budget strategy that courts disaster from Shadow Government by Dov Zakheim

A budget strategy that courts disaster

from Shadow Government by Dov Zakheim

A risky defense strategy

A risky defense strategy

DEAR OBAMA: How Could You Sign This Police-State NDAA Bill?

DEAR OBAMA: How Could You Sign This Police-State NDAA Bill?

from Clusterstock by Henry Blodget

Commentary: Threats to watch in 2012 By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/01/05/Commentary-Threats-to-watch-in-2012/UPI-42961325766675/

Commentary: Threats to watch in 2012

By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE
UPI Editor at Large
WASHINGTON, Jan. 5 (UPI) -- On Dec. 18, 2010, a police slap of a vegetable-cum-fruit peddler in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid triggered an "Arab Spring" that no one had forecast and that quickly spawned a long, dark Arab winter.

How the oil industry intends to attack Obama over the coming year

 

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/04/how_the_oil_industry_intends_to_attack_obama_over_the_coming_year?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheOilAndTheGloryBySteveLevine-Home+%28The+Oil+and+The+Glory+by+Steve+LeVine+-+HOME%29

US army's new Afghan nightmare – how to ship $30bn of kit

Flying home colossal MRAPs that save Nato troops from Taliban IEDs is part of $30bn logistical nightmare

Updates from the Afghansistan Study Group Perspectives on the Peace Process

From ASG
1/4/12
Withdraw Troops From Afghanistan But Stay Engaged
Afghanistan Study Group by Mary Kaszynski
Bringing the troops home is not retreat, and it is not abandonment. It is simply the first step towards a more effective Afghanistan policy and a smarter, more responsible defense budget.
ARTICLES
1/3/12
US army's new Afghan nightmare – how to ship $30bn of kit
The Guardian by Jon Boone
The US army has begun the massive task of withdrawing $30bn (£19bn) worth of military equipment from Afghanistan three years before most Nato troops leave, with logisticians warning of complications from the lack of decent roads and the nightmarish geography of a landlocked country surrounded by states that are either fickle American allies or outright enemies.
OPINION
12/22/11
A long goodbye to Afghanistan
LA Times by Doyle MacManus
The Afghanistan withdrawal won't be anywhere near as final as the one we just saw [in Iraq]. U.S. military leaders are working on a new slimmed-down strategy that would keep some American troops in combat against the Taliban for years to come, long after 2014.
12/27/11
Military Advice and Policy Decisions
National Interest by Paul Pillar
If General Allen understands his mission to be stabilization of Afghanistan and the continuation in power of the Afghan government of the day, he should provide his best advice as to what forces are needed to accomplish that mission. And if whoever is the U.S. president in 2014 determines that accomplishing that mission is not sufficiently critical to U.S. interests to warrant extending a U.S. military expedition that would have already gone on for thirteen years, he should overrule the general's advice.
1/2/12
2011 Reflections: What happened to the US debate on Afghanistan?
CS Monitor by Ben Arnoldy
Should the war run for three more Christmases? That question can be answered in various ways. But as someone who has just returned to the US, I simply want it to be asked here.
As I enjoy the peace of this holiday season, so removed from the conflict zone I recently experienced, I remind myself that we should spare a few thoughts for those who won't be home for the holidays – and consider why exactly that is.

U.S. Focuses on Thwarting China, Iran

U.S. Focuses on Thwarting China, Iran
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/u-s-focuses-on-thwarting-china-iran/

The U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines must combine resources to thwart any
efforts by countries such as China and Iran to block America’s access to the
South China Sea, the Persian Gulf and other strategic regions, according to a
draft of a Pentagon review.

Hard-line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Toward Belligerence: Vali Nasr

By Vali Nasr
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/hard-line-u-s-policy-tips-iran-toward-belligerence-vali-nasr.html

The latest warning by Iran, that a U.S. aircraft carrier that recently transited through the Strait of Hormuz should not do so again, is a sign to the West that should be well-observed. It tells us the regime in Tehran is ready for a fight.

david.wood@huffingtonpost.com 

U.S.-Iran Tensions: Mideast Showdown Builds As United States Tightens Military Ties To Israel

Posted: 01/ 4/12 04:08 PM ET
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/us-iran-tensions-israel-joint-military-exercises_n_1183952.html?ref=mostpopular

"Tectonic Shifts" in Employment

"Tectonic Shifts" in Employment
by David Talbot
Information technology is reducing the need for certain jobs faster than new ones are being created.
Read More »

William Pfaff on War and the Election

William Pfaff on War and the Election
"Ron Paul's Popularity a Sign of a War-Weary America" -- The clear crossover vote-getter issue on which Ron Paul has differed from the rest of the candidate crowd is war: his hostility to the commitment of both Democratic and Republican administrations to prosecuting undeclared war in the Middle East, South Asia and elsewhere.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/ron_pauls_popularity_a_sign_of_a_war-weary_america_20120103/

Robert Scheer on the Obama Administration's Saudi Arms Deal

Robert Scheer on the Obama Administration's Saudi Arms Deal
"Arms Dealer Obama Will Win by Default" -- Barack Obama will be re-elected not as a vindication of his policies but because the Republicans are incapable of providing a reasonable challenge to his flawed performance.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/arms_dealer_obama_will_win_by_default_20120105/

China's war against Harry Potter by Stephen M. Walt

China's war against Harry Potter

from Stephen M. Walt by Stephen M. Walt

What do the Iowa results say about Republican foreign policy? from Shadow Government by Peter Feaver

What do the Iowa results say about Republican foreign policy?

from Shadow Government by Peter Feaver

The U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal and Iran

The U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal and Iran

	Eight Strategic Factors to Consider in 2012

Iraq. Began with big lies. Ending with big lies. Never forget.

Iraq. Began with big lies. Ending with big lies. Never forget.

from Foreign Policy Journal by William Blum

Does Mr. Obama, the Peace Laureate, believe the words that come out of his mouth?

Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf… As the election season begins, war clouds gather

Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf…

As the election season begins, war clouds gather

Thanks to Our Military Debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, America's 'Superpower' Status Has Officially Ended

Thanks to Our Military Debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, America's 'Superpower' Status Has Officially Ended

from AlterNet.org by Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch.com

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not only drained American treasure, but exposed the relative helplessness of the "sole superpower."

Will Iran make good on its threat against US?

The A-List: Ian Bremmer - Iran is bluffing and baiting, but America won’t bite

The A-List: Ian Bremmer - Iran is bluffing and baiting, but America won’t bite Iran has been relentlessly provoking America for the last 10 days. Its military recently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran warned on Tuesday that US aircraft carriers should not return to the Gulf. But Iran is bluffing, and war with the US or Israel is very unlikely in the foreseeable future.
http://link.ft.com/r/VKY5JJ/TUVWO0/8A25BP/2OA5N7/7AIGN5/HK/h?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=4

China’s President Lashes Out at Western Culture

Let's Get Rid of the State Department

Americans' incomes dropped 6.7% during 'recovery'

Read more at: http://times247.com/articles/americans-incomes-dropped-6-7-during-recovery

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/amid-n-korea-succession-china-makes-push-for-stability/2012/01/04/gIQApZFIaP_story.html?tid=wp_ipad

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Amid N. Korea succession, China makes push for stability

By Chico Harlan,

Asia in 2012

Asia in 2012

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2012/01/03/asia-in-2012/
Posted on Tuesday, January 3, 2012

by Evan A. Feigenbaum

World Politics Review Media Roundup 04 Jan. 2012

Media Roundup: 04 Jan 2012

Iran Warns U.S. Aircraft Carrier Not to Return to Gulf

By: J. DAVID GOODMAN | The New York Times

The warning, by Iran's army chief, was the latest and most aggressive volley in a near-daily exchange of barbed statements between Iran and the United States.

China Takes Aim at U.S. Naval Might

By: JULIAN E. BARNES, NATHAN HODGE AND JEREMY PAGE | The Wall Street Journal

China is building a new class of ballistic missiles designed to arc through the stratosphere and explode onto the deck of a U.S. aircraft carrier, potentially forcing U.S. carriers to stay farther away from its shores.

Samurai Rules Say the North Korean Succession May Fail

By: Yuriko Koike | The Daily Star

Although Kim Jong Il received his reign from his own father, North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung, history suggests that a clean transfer of authority from father to son is the exception rather than the rule.

More News

• Sudden Reunification Could Be Trouble for Seoul
  By: FOSTER KLUG | The Associated Press
  
• Militant Groups in Pakistan Form United Front
  By: Karin Brulliard and Haq Nawaz Khan | The Washington Post
  
• Militias Could Drag Libya Into Civil War: NTC Chief
  Reuters
  
• Possible Showdown With Iran Sends Oil Prices Soaring
  By: Jonathan S. Landay and Kevin G. Hall | McClatchy Newspapers
  
• Why Iran's Currency Dropped to Worst Low in Two Decades
  By: Roshanak Taghavi | The Christian Science Monitor
  
• U.S. Sanctions One Factor Among Many Behind Iran's Currency Slide
  By: Nader Habibi | World Politics Review
  
• Myanmar Freed Only 12 Political Prisoners, Group Says
  Reuters
  
• Israelis, Palestinians Meet in Jordan for 1st Time in a Year
  By: Sheera Frenkel | McClatchy Newspapers
  
• Afghanistan Widens Effort to Recoup Bank's Assets
  By: GRAHAM BOWLEY | The New York Times
  
• Kazakhstan Extends State of Emergency After Protest
  Agence France-Presse
  
• Russia Reluctantly Enters Into a New Revolution
  By: Pavel K. Baev | Eurasia Daily Monitor
  
• Onetime Mubarak Foes Move Closer to Power as Egyptians Vote Again
  By: Jeffrey Fleishman | Los Angeles Times
  
• Hope Meets Hate in New Libya
  By: Alexander Smoltczyk | Der Spiegel
  
• China's President Lashes Out at Western Culture
  By: EDWARD WONG | The New York Times
  
• Suspected Senegal Rebels Attack Police Post
  Agence France-Presse
  
• Oil Tanker Released By Pirates Heads for Dubai
  By: Fareed Rahman | The National

Commentary: Youth bulge

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/01/03/Commentary-Youth-bulge/UPI-14321325589599/

Commentary: Youth bulge

By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE
UPI Editor at Large
WASHINGTON, Jan. 3 (UPI) -- With more than 50 percent of the world's population under age 30, humanity is getting younger and less experienced. E-mail is already passe. Some universities have stopped distributing e-mail accounts. The social gamers have taken center stage.

Obama Seeks to Distance U.S. from Israeli Attack Analysis by Gareth Porter*

Obama Seeks to Distance U.S. from Israeli Attack
Analysis by Gareth Porter*

WASHINGTON, Jan 3, 2012 (IPS) - President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are engaged in intense maneuvering over Netanyahu's aim of entangling the United States in an Israeli war against Iran.

af 2012: Netanyahu’s shadow war for the GOP begins?

http://972mag.com/2012-elections-netanyahus-shadow-war-for-the-gop-begins/32060/

Tuesday, January 3 2012|Noam Sheizaf

2012: Netanyahu’s shadow war for the GOP begins?

Israel’s National Security Council calls U.S. President Barak Obama “naïve,” Israel’s pro-Netanyahu daily reports

The Jamestown Foundation's Top 11 Stories of 2011

The Jamestown Foundation's

Top 11 Stories of 2011

The "most popular" stories of the past year based on visitors.

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11. China's 2010 National Defense White Paper: An Assessment

By Michael S. Chase, China Brief

 Despite this White Paper’s lack of detail on specific capabilities, Western analysts should study the perspectives offered in the biannual assessment. One reason is that this White Paper tells us Beijing still sees a security situation that is mostly favorable, but its suspicion of U.S. strategic intentions seems to be increasing and it perceives growing challenges related to China’s maritime interests.

 

10. Turkey Diverges From Western Position On Libya

By Saban Kardas, Eurasia Daily Monitor

Turkey pursued a policy over the popular uprising in Libya reflecting the investment and business ties it had developed with Libya. More importantly, Turkey’s position in the ongoing debate concerning the involvement of the international community in the form of sanctions or possible military intervention increasingly sets Turkey apart from Western policy.

 

9. Egypt's Lotus Revolution - Scenarios for a New Middle East

By Andrew McGregor, Special Commentary

 Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s February 1, 2011 announcement that he would step down at the end of his term in September but would not leave Egypt (“I will die on its soil”) seems to indicate Mubarak and his military colleagues are seeking enough time to consolidate the power of the military-security structure that controls Egypt in the face of massive demonstrations calling for political change.

 

8. Former Pakistan Army Chief Reveals Intelligence Bureau Harbored Bin Laden in Abbottabad

By Arif Jamal, Terrorism Monitor

 In spite of denials by the Pakistani military, evidence emerged that elements within the Pakistani military harbored Osama bin Laden with the knowledge of former army chief General Pervez Musharraf and possibly current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. Former Pakistani Army Chief General Ziauddin Butt (a.k.a. General Ziauddin Khawaja) revealed at a conference on Pakistani-U.S. relations in October 2011 that according to his knowledge the then former Director-General of Intelligence Bureau of Pakistan (2004 – 2008), Brigadier Ijaz Shah (Retd.), had kept Osama bin Laden in an Intelligence Bureau safe house in Abbottabad.

 

7. Beijing Wary of 'Color Revolutions' Sweeping Middle East/North Africa

By Willy Lam, China Brief

 The chances are low that an Egyptian-style “color revolution” is about to flare up in China any time soon. Yet it is a reassertion of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration’s seemingly lack of confidence that it has gone to great lengths to minimize the spillover effect that the dramatic events in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen may have on China. Apart from controlling news coverage of Egypt’s “Lotus Revolution,” the authorities are trying to steer the debate toward the unsuitability of the “Western democratic model” for developing countries.

 

6. Satellites Support Growing PLA Maritime Monitoring and Targeting Capabilities

By Andrew S. Erickson, China Brief

 New satellites are enhancing Chinese command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities. These systems will enable the Chinese military to strengthen cueing, reconnaissance, communications, and data relay for maritime monitoring and targeting. Emerging space-based C4ISR capabilities could thus greatly increase China’s capability to use military means to assert its interests along its contested maritime periphery.

 

5. China's Maritime Strategy Is More Than Naval Strategy

By James Holmes, China Brief

A string of recent events suggests both that Chinese leaders have not abandoned their ambitions in the "near seas" and that these ambitions are apt to encounter pushback from fellow Asian sea powers. Furthermore, the uptick in maritime confrontations demonstrates that China’s "smile" diplomacy—a diplomatic campaign designed to portray China as an inherently beneficent great power—is on hold.

 

4. The Death of Factions within the Chinese Communist Party?

By Willy Lam, China Brief

Beijing appears to be undergoing a major shift toward conservative and even quasi-Maoist norms, which begs the question: are there still checks and balances among the party’s disparate camarillas? This is despite the fact that while the 90-year-old party has always claimed that there are no “mountain strongholds”—meaning cliques and power blocs—within its leadership, factions pushing different ideologies and policies have existed since Mao’s days.

 

3. Can African Mercenaries Save the Libyan Regime?

By Andrew McGregor, Special Commentary

The use of foreign mercernaries by Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi's Libyan regime to slaughter unarmed civilians and quell opposition suggested the beginning of the end of Qaddafi's four decade rule.

 

2. Bin Laden's Neighbors Say Compound Was Under Surveillance Since 2005

By Arif Jamal, Terrorism Monitor

There was evidence that the occupants of the compound housing Osama bin Laden were well known to Pakistani intelligence from the time the purpose-built compound was finished and occupied in 2005. Neighbors cite the fast pace of construction, wealth of inhabitants and constant ISI surveillance as unusual and striking.

 

1. An Initial Assessment of China's J-20 Stealth Fighter

By Carlo Kopp, China Brief

 The J-20 is the first combat aircraft developed by China that qualifies as "state of the art" by Western measures. It also shows that China has mastered "stealth shaping" technology—the essential prerequisite for developing stealth aircraft. Finally it shows that China has managed to integrate its strategic planning with the functional definition of a modern combat aircraft. Once fully developed, the J-20 has the potential to alter the regional balance in the Asian air power strategic game, by rendering nearly all regional air defense systems ineffective.

What Iraq can teach us about Iran t by Stephen M. Walt

What Iraq can teach us about Iran

from Stephen M. Walt by Stephen M. Walt

Yes, It's A New Year — And The United States Is Still Broke

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/reminder-the-united-states-is-broke-2012-1?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29#ixzz1iQD4XqDg

Ron Paul and the Future of American Foreign Policy The Paul-haters won’t succeed

Ron Paul and the Future of American Foreign Policy

The Paul-haters won’t succeed

by Justin Raimondo, December 30, 2011

| Print This | Share This | Antiwar Forum

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2011/12/29/ron-paul-and-the-future-of-american-foreign-policy/

How to Avoid a Return to Iraq by Ivan Eland,

How to Avoid a Return to Iraq

by Ivan Eland,

Montana High Court Says 'Citizens United' Does Not Apply In Big Sky State

Montana High Court Says 'Citizens United' Does Not Apply In Big Sky State

from AlterNet.org by Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet

State Supreme Court Issues Remarkable Ruling Against Corporate Speech

New Nationwide FEMA Camps Should Raise Eyebrows

By Alan P. Halbert

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/01/new_nationwide_fema_camps_should_raise_eyebrows.html#ixzz1iQ2hfeP1

The Stratfor Scandal By J.R. Dunn

The Stratfor Scandal

By J.R. Dunn

The Tea Party tsunami and US fiscal deadlock

The Tea Party tsunami and US fiscal deadlock

The failure of the “Super Committee” last year to reach a budget deal underscored the underlying wedge in US politics. The distribution of the electorate through most of the post-1945 years has been a dominant centre, slightly to the left or right of centre. This enabled legislative compromises to be reached with relative ease. But, writes Alan Greenspan, a political tsunami has emerged out of our past in the form of the Tea Party, with its ethos reminiscent of rugged individualism and self-reliance. That was a dominant force for over a century, but has faded since the New Deal. http://link.ft.com/r/G8OTZZ/QNO2ZL/KEIJMC/ZGCVY7/NJB5J2/ZH/h?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=3

How Iran’s Saber Rattling Could Affect Oil Prices and the Environment

How Iran’s Saber Rattling Could Affect Oil Prices and the Environment

from OilPrice.com Daily News Update by james@pokemoncard.info (Brian Westenhaus)

It’s easy to see the Iranian Mullahs and their allied minions as a world threat. The country is a significant source of crude oil, has a strategic location over the Strait of Hormuz, seems to be busily building an atomic arsenal with missile delivery systems, supports radical and violent extraterritorial groups and many believe is directly funding world terrorism against both Muslims and others. Those facts and an incomprehensible disdain for logic, reason, responsibility and common self-preservation sense cannot but alarm any but the dullest of observers.
The atom bomb matter has the largest destructive and life risking potential and has
Read more...

7 Geopolitical Predictions for 2012

7 Geopolitical Predictions for 2012

from OilPrice.com Daily News Update by diplomat@oilprice.com (Diplomatic Courier)

As we begin a new year, it is customary to look back at all 2011 brought us. How many dictators fell or lost their lives, while their people found a new sense of empowerment and civic activism? How many countries are still left in an uncertain instability? Economic turmoil continued throughout the global community, although some countries came out of the year in better shape here than others. One war ended, but as the world hit 7 billion people, the world could be increasing instability.
Could the developments of 2012 be as fascinating and global order-changing as 2011's were?

Iran threatens US over aircraft carrier

New Year, New Kim, Same Policies

The Diplomat - January 02, 2012
http://the-diplomat.com/2012/01/02/new-year-new-kim-same-policies/?all=true

New Year, New Kim, Same Policies
By John Hemmings

• Published 00:46 02.01.12

Palestinians plan diplomatic steps to put Israel under 'international siege'

Top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat to meet Netanyahu's envoy in Jordan Tuesday for preliminary talks aimed at setting an agenda for peace negotiations.

By Barak Ravid, Avi Issacharoff and Natasha Mozgovaya

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/palestinians-plan-diplomatic-steps-to-put-israel-under-international-siege-1.404973

The PLO and the continuing project to win Palestinian national liberation

The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition

I admit it: My prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year.

BY GORDON G. CHANG

Saturday, December 31, 2011

GGDrafts

Saturday, December 31, 2011

ACLU statement on Obama's signing of NDAA

President Obama Signs Indefinite Detention Bill Into Law

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 31, 2011

WASHINGTON – President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) into law today. The statute contains a sweeping worldwide indefinite detention provision.  While President Obama issued a signing statement saying he had “serious reservations” about the provisions, the statement only applies to how his administration would use the authorities granted by the NDAA, and would not affect how the law is interpreted by subsequent administrations.  The White House had threatened to veto an earlier version of the NDAA, but reversed course shortly before Congress voted on the final bill.

“President Obama's action today is a blight on his legacy because he will forever be known as the president who signed indefinite detention without charge or trial into law,” said Anthony D. Romero, ACLU executive director. “The statute is particularly dangerous because it has no temporal or geographic limitations, and can be used by this and future presidents to militarily detain people captured far from any battlefield.  The ACLU will fight worldwide detention authority wherever we can, be it in court, in Congress, or internationally.”

Under the Bush administration, similar claims of worldwide detention authority were used to hold even a U.S. citizen detained on U.S. soil in military custody, and many in Congress now assert that the NDAA should be used in the same way again. The ACLU believes that any military detention of American citizens or others within the United States is unconstitutional and illegal, including under the NDAA. In addition, the breadth of the NDAA’s detention authority violates international law because it is not limited to people captured in the context of an actual armed conflict as required by the laws of war. 

“We are incredibly disappointed that President Obama signed this new law even though his administration had already claimed overly broad detention authority in court,” said Romero. “Any hope that the Obama administration would roll back the constitutional excesses of George Bush in the war on terror was extinguished today. Thankfully, we have three branches of government, and the final word belongs to the Supreme Court, which has yet to rule on the scope of detention authority. But Congress and the president also have a role to play in cleaning up the mess they have created because no American citizen or anyone else should live in fear of this or any future president misusing the NDAA’s detention authority.”

The bill also contains provisions making it difficult to transfer suspects out of military detention, which prompted FBI Director Robert Mueller to testify that it could jeopardize criminal investigations.  It also restricts the transfers of cleared detainees from the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay to foreign countries for resettlement or repatriation, making it more difficult to close Guantanamo, as President Obama pledged to do in one of his first acts in office.

Obama Rings in the New Year By Signing Bill Allowing Indefinite Detention of Americans - by Washington's Blog

	Obama Rings in the New Year By Signing Bill Allowing Indefinite Detention of Americans - by Washington's Blog - 2012-01-02

Crackpot Anti-Islam Activists, "Serial Fabricators" and the Tale of Iran and 9/11

http://www.truth-out.org/crackpot-anti-islam-activists-serial-fabricators-and-tale-iran-and-911/1325172724

 This article can be republished with credit to Truthout

Crackpot Anti-Islam Activists, "Serial Fabricators" and the Tale of Iran and 9/11

Economics focus How to get a date The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight

Economics focus

How to get a date

The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight

The Pentagon and its Sock Puppets By Scott Horton

 

The Pentagon and its Sock Puppets

By Scott Horton

Leon T. Hadar

Journalist and foreign affairs analyst

2012: The Year of Counter-Revolution?

Christopher Hitchens: Some Memories Norman Birnbaum

Christopher Hitchens: Some Memories

Norman Birnbaum

http://consortiumnews.com/2011/12/30/urging-obama-to-stop-rush-to-iran-war/

consortiumnews.com

Urging Obama to Stop Rush to Iran War

December 30, 2011

 

Exclusive: A torrent of war propaganda against Iran is flooding the American political scene as U.S. neocons and Israeli hardliners see an opening for another war in the Middle East, a momentum that ex-CIA analysts Ray McGovern and Elizabeth Murray urge President Obama to stop.

By Ray McGovern and Elizabeth Murray

President Obama needs to put an abrupt halt to the game of Persian Roulette about to spin out of control in the Persian Gulf. If we were still on active duty at the CIA, this is what we would tell him.

Opinion

A World in Denial of What It Knows

By GEOFFREY WHEATCROFT

Published: December 31, 2011

BIDEN GETS CHINA

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/biden-gets-china/250747/
BIDEN GETS CHINA

Detention Bad, Execution OK

DarkGovernment has posted a new item, ''

Detention Bad, Execution OK
http://www.darkgovernment.com/news/detention-bad-execution-ok/

If you haven't heard, Obama's New Year's gift to America was signing the NDAA
indefinite detention bill into law. He tried to quell outrage by saying he was
only signing it with "serious reservations."
“I have signed this bill despite having serious reservations with certain
provisions that regulate the detention, interrogation, and prosecution of
suspected terrorists,” [...]

Commentary Quit Preaching and Lead by Example

Commentary

Quit Preaching and Lead by Example
December 14, 2011
Ivan Eland
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=3203

Eurozone debt crisis: leaders warn of dangers facing economy in 2012

Eurozone leaders used their New Year's message to highlight the dangers facing Europe's economy in the coming 12 months.

Muslim Brotherhood vows not to recognize Israel

By JPOST.COM STAFF AND REUTERS
01/01/2012 11:42

Egyptian party's deputy leader tells 'al-Hayat' that they won't negotiate with Israel, will seek to cancel peace treaty.

US bolsters UAE's missile defense in major arms deal

US bolsters UAE's missile defense in major arms deal

Progressives and the Ron Paul fallacies

Economist magazine predicts that China's economy will pass the US economy in 2018

Economist magazine predicts that China's economy will pass the US economy in 2018

A Christmas Message From America's Rich

Taibblog

by: Matt Taibbi

Energy Pricing Predictions for 2012 By Matthew Cook, January 1, 2012

Energy Pricing Predictions for 2012

By Matthew Cook, January 1, 2012
The oil price has rarely fallen below $100 a barrel since the Arab Spring threatened supplies at the start of 2011. Libya is now nearly back at full-scale production post-war, which some suggest could increase global supply and theoretically lead to price falls. But other analysts believe other Opec powers such as Saudi Arabia will reduce their output in order to ensure prices don’t...  » Continue...

• Published 03:37 29.12.11

Israel needs to listen to Hamas, and take notice

Israel must not ignore the declarations by the Hamas leadership and reject the chance of achieving a cease-fire with the organization, at the very least.

Haaretz Editorial

Graphic: Mapping a superpower-sized military

Richard Johnson  Oct 28, 2011 – 7:02 PM ET | Last Updated: Nov 1, 2011 12:35 PM ET
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/28/graphic-mapping-a-superpower-sized-military/

Despite the pending troop withdrawals in Iraq and those in Afghanistan between now and 2014, the United States remains a superpower on a scale not seen since the days of the Caesars. With this in mind, the National Post’s Richard Johnson takes a look at the scale of America’s forces.

CLICK FOR FULL-SIZED GRAPHIC

America's Drive for Middle East Dominance Sets the Stage for Attacking Iran-Never Mind International Law (or Even U.S. Interests)

By Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, from www.RaceForIran.com

28 December 2011

http://peacenow.org/entries/apns_top_10_wackiest_congressional_actions_on_the_middle_east_of_2011

APN's Top 10 Wackiest Congressional Actions on the Middle East of 2011

By Lara Friedman on December 29, 2011 10:55 AM | No Comments

Anyone who reads the Round-Up knows that Congress gets up to a lot of wacky stuff when it comes to the Middle East.  Below is a subjective list of the top ten outstanding examples of this.  Enjoy!

Shukran, Israel

http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1325252368/	..
Shukran, Israel 31/12/11 IF ISLAMIST movements come to power all over the region, they should express their debt of gratitude to their bête noire, Israel. Without the active or passive help of successive Israeli governments, they may not have been able to realize their dreams.

World should be happy that Steve Jobs wasn't Israeli

Had Steve Jobs been an Israeli, Apple's slogan would not have been "Think Different." It would have been "Think Like Everyone Else."

By Boaz Gaon in Ha'aretz

Why Ron Paul Matters

Among all the GOP presidential candidates, he's the only one who stands for constitutionally limited government.

It’s the Economy

Will China Outsmart the U.S.?

Bruce Fein on the National Defense Authorization Act