WPR Articles 31 Dec 2011 - 06 Jan 2012

The New Rules: A Foreign Policy Wish List for 2012

By: Thomas P.M. Barnett | Column

Last year was a tough one in terms of global economics, humanitarian disasters and political leadership among the world's great powers. But it was also the year of the Arab Spring and hints of similar developments in Myanmar, Russia and Ethiopia. So while the year's "fundamentals" weren't so good, it left us with plenty to be grateful for. Keeping all that in mind, here is my foreign policy wish list for 2012.

Global Insights: Righting Trans-Atlantic Defense Spending in 2012

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The past year was an eventful one for NATO, but despite the success of the alliance's intervention in Libya, persistent problems will continue to affect trans-Atlantic defense relations in the New Year. The U.S. will need to redouble its efforts to get European member states to commit resources to defense capabilities, with the NATO Summit this May providing an opportunity for high-level attention to the issue.

Over the Horizon: Trouble Ahead for Russia's Triangle Arms Trade

By: Robert Farley | Column

Since the end of the Cold War, the Russian arms industry has sustained itself by arming China and India. However, this situation is almost certainly unsustainable in the long run, as both countries appear to be outgrowing their dependence on the Russian military-industrial complex. This will spell trouble for Russia, which has had great difficulty developing exports based on anything other than arms or energy.

World Citizen: In Changing Region, Hamas Faces Urgent Choices

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The ongoing transformation of the Middle East has affected every government and every political organization in the region. In the case of Hamas, the Arab Spring has brought a disorienting combination of extremely good and extremely bad news. Hamas now faces a starkly different world with conflicting forces at play. More importantly for the Hamas leadership, it must urgently make some very difficult decisions.

The Realist Prism: U.S.-China Relationship Could Hang on Biden, Xi

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

According to an unconfirmed report this week, Vice President Joe Biden has been tasked with overseeing U.S.-China relations. While improvements at the margins can be expected, Biden’s appointment is unlikely to achieve any major breakthroughs. In part, this is because some fundamental U.S. and Chinese interests are at loggerheads, and even an improved dialogue mechanism cannot bridge the divide.

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For Regional Powers, Economic Interests Trump Principled Policy in Myanmar

By: Roberto Tofani | Briefing

In 2011, Myanmar astonished the international community with a series of political openings that led even U.S. President Barack Obama to see "flickers of progress." The moves seem to have launched a regional race among the country's neighbors for gaining a "special relationship" with the former pariah state, but it is doubtful that increased economic engagement will strengthen Myanmar's nascent democracy.

U.S. Sanctions One Factor Among Many Behind Iran's Currency Slide

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing

Iran’s exchange rate is experiencing unusual volatility, with the U.S. dollar and the euro both rising by more than 25 percent against the Iranian rial over the past three weeks. While new U.S. sanctions targeting the Iranian central bank have played a role in the exchange-rate volatility, a cluster of domestic policy moves and private-sector trends have also played a major role in the rial’s slide.

Transnistria Vote Highlights Tension Between Values and Interests

By: Matthew Rojansky | Briefing

On Dec. 25, Yevgeny Shevchuk, a young reformer, was elected president of Transnistria by a landslide. It was a triumph for democracy in a remote corner of Southeastern Europe that few outside the neighborhood would have had any reason to notice. But it is worth noting, as Shevchuk's victory offers a larger lesson at a time when popular democratic movements are shaking the foundations of governments worldwide.

Cutting Through the Rhetoric on Defense Sequestration

By: Veronique de Rugy | Briefing

The prospect of $500 billion in cuts to the U.S. defense budget from 2013-2021 has Washington in a panic. In unveiling an updated military strategy yesterday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned that such cuts would lead to a “demoralized and hollow force.” We should not allow such claims to scare us into letting the Pentagon off the hook. The cuts would indispose the Pentagon, not destroy it.

From Trend Lines:

Ethiopia's Oromo Liberation Front Shifts from Violence to Politics

Hamas' Haniyeh Strengthens Ties with Turkey