[Salon] Iraqi Kurds Will Face Narrowing Options After US Troops Leave - Arab Digest.org Guest Post

Iraqi Kurds Will Face Narrowing Options After US Troops Leave Summary: as regional insecurity grows the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq has placed Iraqi Kurdistan in a difficult and challenging position. We thank Sirwan Kajjo for today’s newsletter. Sirwan, a regular contributor to the AD podcast, is a Kurdish American journalist based in Washington D.C. He focusses on Kurdish politics, Islamic militancy, extremism and conflict in West Asia and beyond. Sirwan is the author of Nothing But Soot a novel about a twenty-something Kurdish man whose quest for a permanent home never ends. You can find his latest podcast Syrian Kurds face an uncertain future here. On September 26, Bakhtiar Sadiq, the secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq announced that the US-led international coalition had ended its financial support for the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. On the same day, Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), described the withdrawal as “shameful,” arguing that it would leave the semi-autonomous region vulnerable to Iranian attacks. These statements came just days before the anticipated September 30 deadline for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region. Barzani’s concerns are real. The Kurdistan Region’s security has depended heavily on US military support, particularly since the war against the Islamic State began in 2014. The Kurdish Peshmerga played a crucial role in the US-led campaign against the terrorist group. Over the years, Iraqi Kurdish leadership has maintained a strong relationship with Washington, at times pursuing ties that went beyond what Baghdad was comfortable with. Now that American troops are set to leave Iraq, it remains unclear whether any US military advisers will remain in the Kurdistan Region. The Kurds have calculations that differ from those of the central government in Baghdad. While Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hopes that the US pullout will strengthen his efforts to disarm Shiite militias, the KRG fears that the withdrawal will leave the Kurdistan Region more exposed to attacks by Iran and its Iraqi proxies. Since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran in February 2026, the Kurdistan Region has been hit more than 1,000 times by missile and drone attacks launched by Iranian forces and their affiliated armed groups in Iraq. American servicemen on parade in Iraq. The departure of coalition forces marks a dramatic recalculation for Erbil, forcing the KRG to balance ties between Baghdad and Washington without its historic military shield. A logical explanation would suggest that the departure of US forces from Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, would reduce attacks by Iranian-backed groups, since the American military presence has often been cited as a justification for such attacks. In reality, however, many of these attacks have targeted Peshmerga headquarters, Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region and civilian infrastructure. This is due in no small part to Tehran’s fears that Iranian Kurds and wider Kurdish aspirations for an independent homeland pose an existential threat to its theocracy. There is therefore no guarantee that these attacks will stop after September 30. Some of the most hardline Iranian-backed groups, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have refused to lay down their arms. The threat of continued attacks against the Kurdistan Region is likely to persist even after US troops formally leave. In a final effort to persuade Washington that the Kurdistan Region can be a more capable partner, the KRG recently announced the unification of the region’s divided Kurdish forces, a process that had remained stalled for years. By presenting a unified Peshmerga as a more cohesive and reliable force, the KRG sought to signal its willingness to address one of Washington’s longstanding demands and in turn persuade the United States to remain engaged militarily in the Kurdistan Region. The changing regional dynamics are another factor driving Iraqi Kurdish concerns about the lack of a US military presence in the Kurdistan Region. Under pressure from Washington and Ankara, Syrian Kurds’ 12-year de facto autonomy came to an end as their region was brought under the control of the central government in Damascus. Türkiye and Iran also appear to be working closely to exploit every opportunity to undermine prospects for Kurdish self-rule across the region. Iraqi Kurds are taking notice. The Iraqi Kurdistan leadership recognises a broader shift in US policy, particularly among its regional diplomats, toward strengthening ties with central governments rather than working directly with local entities, as Washington has done with Iraqi and Syrian Kurds over the past 13 years. While the United States has formally ended its direct partnership with the Kurds in Syria, Iraqi Kurds hope that their federal status and the continued presence of the US diplomatic mission in Erbil will help preserve a strong relationship with Washington, even as the broader trend in US policy appears to be moving in a different direction. For Iraqi Kurds, the US withdrawal is not simply the end of a military mission; it marks a significant shift in their strategic environment. Their options are increasingly limited: they must rely more heavily on their own forces, seek greater security cooperation with Baghdad and preserve their diplomatic and military ties with Washington without the leverage that a US military presence once provided. As the United States moves away from a direct military role in Iraq, Erbil will have to navigate a more difficult balance between Baghdad and Washington while facing an increasingly complex regional security environment.