[Salon] A New Kurdish Insurgency in Iran? - ArabDigest.org Guest Post

A New Kurdish Insurgency in Iran? Summary: in the early days of the Iran war there was much talk of a Kurdish attack in support of the joint military operations of the US and Israel. Though that did not happen recent reports of skirmishes make clear that the Kurds’ aspiration for autonomy remains a significant threat to the Iranian regime. We thank Sirwan Kajjo for today’s newsletter. Sirwan, a regular contributor to the AD podcast, is a Kurdish American journalist based in Washington D.C. He focusses on Kurdish politics, Islamic militancy, extremism and conflict in the Middle East and beyond. Sirwan is the author of Nothing But Soot about a twenty-something Kurdish man whose quest for a permanent home never ends. You can find his latest podcast "Syrian Kurds face an uncertain future" here. Recent weeks have witnessed sporadic but intense clashes between Iranian Kurdish opposition groups and Iranian security forces across parts of the Kurdish region in western Iran, leaving dozens dead on both sides. The violence reflects a potentially significant new dynamic emerging as a consequence of the recent conflict, with both Tehran and Kurdish armed groups seeking to capitalise on shifting geopolitical and security conditions to advance their respective objectives. Although the clashes have remained limited in scope, they are likely to become more frequent as Iranian security forces face fewer operational constraints during the current ceasefire, however shaky it may be. The latest round of fighting began with a small-scale attack by an Iranian Kurdish opposition group on security forces affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), killing three IRGC members. The attack was claimed by an obscure group calling itself Xori Hiwa, which is Kurdish for "Sun of Hope." Little is known about the organisation and it remains unclear whether it has any ties to the main Iranian Kurdish armed groups. Sporadic but intense clashes have erupted in western Iran as a newly formed coalition of Iranian Kurdish armed groups faces a swift crackdown from the country's security forces following the recent regional war. The government’s response was swift. Iranian security forces ambushed members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), killing at least six Kurdish fighters. Clashes took place in a couple of other areas in western Iran, involving multiple Iranian Kurdish armed groupings. The emergence of Xori Hiwa raises questions about whether established Kurdish parties are using lesser-known organisations as proxies to maintain plausible deniability. Such a strategy would help avoid further jeopardising the security of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where many Iranian Kurdish opposition groups maintain bases. Tehran has repeatedly targeted these bases and warned authorities in Iraqi Kurdistan against allowing Iranian Kurdish groups to use their territory to launch attacks inside Iran. The Kurdish political landscape in Iran is highly complex. Some organisations such as the KDPI and Komala maintain close political and historical ties with Iraqi Kurdish parties, while another major faction, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), is affiliated with the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Despite longstanding ideological and organisational differences, the six principal Iranian Kurdish political parties, all of which maintain armed wings, recently formed a coalition aimed at coordinating their political and military activities. Yet the alliance is relatively fragile. Formed only weeks before the US-Israeli military operation against Iran began on February 28, it continues to face internal pressures from its member parties and their respective constituencies. Those tensions are likely to intensify as Tehran expands its crackdown across Iran's Kurdish heartland. This recent violence is the first test for the coalition’s cohesion and its ability to maintain a unified political and military strategy. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have also faced growing pressure from their own supporters inside Iran. At the height of the war, there were pleas by many Kurds for the armed groups to exploit the turmoil created by the US and Israeli strikes by launching attacks against Iranian military forces stationed in the country's Kurdish west and to establish de facto autonomy – a longstanding Kurdish demand in Iran. Although those calls were not made public among the Kurdish populace for fear of retribution from the Iranian regime, the current wave of violence is widely viewed as a delayed response to those demands. The timing, however, could hardly be worse. Iran has used the ceasefire to regroup, redeploy security forces and restore a greater degree of operational control. Meanwhile, the international attention has largely shifted from the conflict, focusing instead on permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz and other pressing regional challenges related to Iran. These changing priorities have reduced international scrutiny of Tehran’s actions inside the country. As a result, Iranian Kurdish armed groups now face a stronger and less constrained Iranian security apparatus, making any escalation more likely to provoke a swift and overwhelming response. The recent clashes, therefore, represent more than an isolated security incident. They could mark the beginning of a renewed phase in Iran’s long-running conflict with its Kurdish opposition. This time around it is shaped not only by domestic grievances but also by the broader geopolitical consequences of the recent regional war.