[Salon] The Iran war lays bare Bahrain’s fault lines - ArabDigest.org Guest Post

The Iran war lays bare Bahrain’s fault lines Summary: the joint US and Israel attack on Iran has re-ignited tensions between Bahrain’s ruling Sunni family and the majority of its Shi’a citizens. We thank Andrew McIntosh for today’s newsletter. Andrew is the Director of Research at the NGO SALAM for Democracy and Human Rights. His specialty fields are media analysis, sectarianism and statelessness in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Syria. In the Gulf, the unthinkable has happened. In what was an oasis of calm in a tumultuous region, high rise skylines in the GCC are now marred by Iranian drone strikes on US military assets and civilian infrastructure. These attacks have taken on a unique character in Bahrain, as the small island kingdom - with a majority indigenous Shi’a population ruled by a Sunni royal family - struggles with domestic unrest. Following the US and Israeli forces’ assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei, both a head of state and an international Shi’a clerical leader, Bahraini civilians have taken to the streets in protest. A minority have clashed with security forces, and dozens have been arrested. The crackdown involves civilians arrested for filming drone strikes and then publicly shamed by pro-government media. Authorities detained Bahraini Shi’a for engaging in peaceful mourning processions for Khamenei while pro-regime media levelled accusations against protestors for “sympathising with the Iranian aggression.” This follows a longstanding pattern of sectarian domestic suppression, which has now erupted in a highly polarised society with the estimated 55-70% of Bahraini citizens who are Shi’a denied democratic representation in a context where both civic space and participation in public life are highly restricted. As the Iran war continues Bahrain once again faces a significant crisis. As angry protests sweep many Bahraini cities and villages, some joke the US and Israel regime change war in Iran might have sparked regime change in Bahrain instead Since 2011, when protests were violently crushed by a Saudi-led military intervention, the Bahraini Government has failed to make reforms addressing the social and political inequalities that caused the unrest. These issues include an empowered parliament, limitations on the King's powers, the implementation of rights guaranteed by the Bahraini constitution and social and cultural rights for the Shi’a population. Instead, the Bahraini state has severely limited freedom of speech, press and expression over the past fifteen years, worsening social and political resentments. Although Bahrain currently has the only functional parliament in the Gulf (Kuwait’s parliament was dissolved in 2024), the country’s opposition parties are banned, with their leaders imprisoned or in exile. Moreover, 6,000-11,000 citizens were stripped of their right to participate in politics under Law 26/2018, also known as the “Political Isolation Laws”, which bars key dissidents from running for political office, heading a civil society organisation, being on the board of a company or even running a sports club. Within the kingdom, the media is tightly regulated by the state. Individual acts such as posts criticising the government can result in arrest and torture. Politicians are no exception. In August 2024, MP Mohammed Al-Husseini was stripped of his parliamentary position after he publicly called for the release of political prisoners in parliament. These heavy constraints maintain a system that concentrates wealth and power within the ruling Al-Khalifa family, Sunni elites and the urban classes. Despite representing more than half the citizenry, Bahraini Shi’a have limited cultural representation in the country and minimal presence in domestic media. Official history, including museums and tourist attractions, almost exclusively showcases and amplifies Sunni Arab culture. The modern high rises and elegant garden villas in and around Manama are within miles of neglected, run-down, Shi’a-majority villages, which experience high unemployment, poor infrastructure and intense scrutiny from the police and government security forces. These segregated areas are sites of low-intensity, usually peaceful protests. Despite Bahrain being roughly half the size of Greater London, these two worlds rarely interact. In a recent survey Shi’a Bahrainis said that while most believe in democracy, 81.1% do not feel their elected representatives reflect a fair representation of the Bahraini citizenry and 86% feel alienated from Bahraini politics, believing they have little to no agency. These divisions are significant when measured against Bahrain’s foreign policy initiatives. 76% of Bahrainis disapprove of Bahrain joining the Abraham Accords which saw normalisation of relations with Israel in 2020. Support for the US has also declined, with only 12% of Bahrainis now considering it a friendly country. The poll, though it was taken before the US Fifth Fleet in Manama was attacked by Iran, is still significant. It reflects dissatisfaction with America’s backing of Israel in the Gaza war that began in October 2023 further cementing opposition to the government’s normalisation decision. While these opinions cross sectarian lines, they are arguably felt most acutely among many Bahraini Shi’a. Since 2023, prominent Shi’a imams and reciters have been summoned to police stations or arrested for voicing opposition to normalisation with Israel or for calling for the release of political prisoners. Significant religious events, such as Ashura, were subjected to harsher restrictions, including travel bans on key clerics and the arrests of other Shi’a religious figures for making statements critical of the Bahraini government. In October 2024, Imam Al-Saddiq Mosque, Bahrain’s largest Shi’a Mosque, was closed indefinitely following repeated sermons condemning Israel and criticising the US for arming the IDF in its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, leading to altercations between security forces and Shi’a civilians as the mosque was shuttered. In November 2025, Ebrahim Sharif, the former leader of the banned opposition party Wa’ad, was arrested and sentenced to six months in prison for “making offensive remarks against sister Arab states and their leaders" after he publicly condemned normalisation between Bahrain and Israel during an interview in Lebanon. His arrest and conviction has further inflamed political tensions as it occurred alongside sustained, small-scale protests to release political prisoners and demands for better access to unemployment benefits. The kingdom was already a tinderbox of political divisions and resentments; the US and Israeli war on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks attacks on Bahrain and other Gulf states has now dramatically heightened those tensions. Faced with an unprecedented geopolitical crisis in its neighbourhood, the Bahraini government’s options are limited. The ruling Al Khalifa family has continuously ignored public opinion and imposed draconian policies to maintain control. Yet, in the face of a regional war, these protests show the limitations and diminishing returns of that strategy. Social and political marginalisation is increasing the risk of radicalisation and violence as Bahrain remains in a downward spiral of unrest where repression breeds resentment and leads to further crackdowns. Although the government is currently at no risk of collapse, its inability or unwillingness to engage in political reconciliation or pluralism means the country continues to lurch from one polarising crisis to another. Foregoing state-led dialogue and social inclusion ensures that alienation and anger among Shi’a communities, heightened by the Iran war, will continue and likely led to further unrest, harsh security crackdowns and wider fractures in an already divided Kingdom.