[Salon] ISIS unleashed - ArabDigest.org Guest Post by Sirwan Kajjo

ISIS unleashed Summary: with the US choosing to throw in its lot with the al-Sharaa regime, it was only a matter of time before Syria’s Kurds and their fighting arm the SDF were defeated. Last month's rout of Kurdish forces in Northeast Syria has allowed the escape of ISIS fighters and the release of their families into a chaotic situation that could see a resurgence of terrorism in the region and beyond. Today’s newsletter focusses on comments about the Islamic State made by the Kurdish-American journalist Sirwan Kajjo in our 28 January podcast. You can find the podcast here. The SDF was the crucial element in the battle to defeat ISIS and it was heavily backed by the United States over several years. What happened to the US support for the SDF? Since the arrival of al-Sharaa in Damascus, the United States decided to support this new government. It was a meeting back in May 2025 between President Donald Trump and the interim president of Syria, Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh, that basically changed things for everyone in Syria, including the SDF. And later on, in November of the same year, al-Sharaa came to the White House, had another meeting, and then joined the anti-ISIS global coalition. The United States decided that in Syria there's only one group that we can work with. While they continued their partnership with the SDF, they made it very clear that in the future, if there is any way for the SDF to continue the partnership, it would have to be through their integration into the Syrian government and the Syrian state writ large. But recently, after the outbreak of the violence in Aleppo and later on in eastern Syria, the United States made it even more clear that it's over for the SDF. If they do want to join the Syrian military and the Syrian state, then they should do so by joining individually, not as an intact force which has for a long time been a major demand for the Kurdish-led forces and also a major point of contention between Damascus and the SDF. So it's become clear that the United States no longer supports the SDF at least in the way it did in the past decade and in the framework of the fight against ISIS. Following the Syrian Army offensive, an ISIS flag was raised at the entrance to Al-Karamah, Al-Raqqah, Syria. The video is not from the ISIS period as the wheat monument (circled in blue) was built after the town was liberated in 2017. It would appear to me that the Syrian Kurds have been betrayed. Is that how you see it? Well, I should say the United States, since the beginning of this partnership with the SDF a decade ago, has been very consistent in terms of defining the relationship with the Kurdish-led forces, that this was a transactional partnership. This was not meant to be a strategic partnership in the context of giving an opportunity for the Kurds to establish a lasting autonomy in the Northeast. And this was reiterated recently by US Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, that it was meant to be in the context of fighting ISIS and he basically said that that partnership had expired. And so many Kurds would like to call this a betrayal, but from a US perspective, everything was clear from the get go, from the minute the United States, under the Obama administration, decided to support the Kurds directly in the fight against ISIS. It's remained in that context, even though that partnership has allowed the Kurds to expand territory and build institutions that function in a de facto capacity in the Northeast and so, yes, from a Kurdish perspective, Kurds have been a loyal partner to the United States and other Western powers and in return they expected more assertive support in the post-Assad era. Washington is the key here. And Tom Barrack made it very clear: ‘this is it, our support is finished. We're walking away from you. We're supporting al-Sharaa’. That's basically what happened. The United States still maintains about 1000 troops in the region, although some of them have been moved around given the changing dynamics in the Northeast. So, there is still a US military presence. I don't know how much effect that will have given that the Syrian government forces have taken over much of the territory that was controlled by the SDF. And so, yes, if there is any support for the Kurds in the future it will probably be in terms of forcing them to continue this integration process. The United States remains determined that any integration of the SDF into the Syrian state will have to be by terms dictated by Damascus. There are people listening to the podcast thinking, well, ISIS was defeated. It's no longer a threat. But Sirwan, you and I both know that's far from the case. What has happened with the prisons and the camps holding ISIS fighters and their families now that the SDF has been defeated? They were immediately taken over by the al-Sharaa forces, including the al-Hol camp which is the largest camp, holding thousands of families of ISIS militants including many foreign citizens. Now, it's a chaotic situation in certain prisons, like in al-Shaddadi, which is located in the southern part of Hasakah province where a prison break happened and many ISIS prisoners were able to escape. Some of them were captured by the Syrian forces, others remain at large, so those would eventually pose a threat and not only to the Kurdish region but also to areas under al-Sharaa’s control. And you also have these other thousands of families, including women and children, that have been held in these camps, most of them still hold an ISIS extremist ideology, so they do pose a direct threat to the security of the region and to regional security as a whole. Some of them have been moved to Iraq. The US said that the Iraqis have initiated a process of taking as much as 7000 individuals from al-Hol camp. Now, that's major but we also hear some opposition voices within Iraq basically saying it's not a good idea even though Iraqi officials say this is a temporary arrangement until there is a process where these individuals are repatriated to their home countries. All in all, it's a very chaotic situation because, yes, ISIS was defeated territorially. Militarily, it no longer held territory but they've been very active since 2019. And in the Syrian desert known as al-Badia, we have seen an uptick of ISIS activity in those areas, especially after the collapse of the Assad regime. I'm not trying to be hyperbolic here but the threat is very real given that the Syrian government has shown it doesn't have the capacity to counter ISIS, not least because some members of the Syrian military are former ISIS or former al-Qaeda, and some still hold that extremist ideology. So, it's dangerous in that sense as well. We will see how the US and its Western allies will deal with this situation but it's certainly one of great significance in the long run. Yes, and you mentioned that there are former ISIS fighters - who may not be former, when I think about it - in the Syrian armed forces. I'm also told that in the security services, there are ISIS sympathisers, fellow travellers, whatever you want to call them. So there is the threat, of course, to Iraq, to Syria, but also beyond those borders. I'm thinking about Europe. ISIS lost the caliphate but the ideology has not been defeated, has it? No, it has only seen a resurgence in the past few months, for these reasons that you mentioned. The official ISIS narrative opposes the al-Sharaa government. They think it's an apostate regime, a puppet regime that is loyal to the West and many within ISIS, as well as people who sympathise with the group, still believe this is a chance to try to have a resurgence in many parts of Syria. And we see that online. I saw some reporting on camps holding ISIS families celebrating the fact that their brothers are coming for us, things like that. So, there is a sense of victory among people including those who are still in Kurdish custody. This is definitely something that Western officials should consider if they are concerned about their own security. In Europe in particular, given that many of these individuals do come from European backgrounds.