[Salon] A dangerous week in the Middle East - ArabDigest.org

A dangerous week in the Middle East Summary: despite widespread calls for de-escalation the war in Gaza has only become hotter and ever more menacing for both the region and the world. In just two days, the 9th and 10th of April the Gaza war’s escalatory needle shot up. On Tuesday Hamas emphatically rejected the ceasefire offer that Israel had agreed to put on the table in Cairo. Hamas claimed it was interested in a deal that "puts an end to the aggression on our people.” However, the statement went on to say “the Israeli position remains intransigent and it didn't meet any of the demands of our people and our resistance." Hamas has called for an end to the IDF offensive, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and a return of displaced Gazans to their heavily destroyed communities. In return there would be a staged release of the surviving hostages and incremental ceasefires leading to a permanent ceasefire (for the full Hamas position see our 15 February newsletter.) It is a proposal Israel will not accept as it leaves Hamas in control of the Strip. The same day Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a further threat in the wake of the 1 April Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus that killed senior IRGC officers. The lethal strike was, he said, an attack on Iran itself. “When they attack our consulate, it means our territory has been attacked,” adding “the evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and will be punished.” The Israelis were quick to respond with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Foreign Minister Israel Katz threatening a strike on Iran if it was shown that Khamenei’s retribution came from Iranian soil. The last noted is an important caveat and an indication that Netanyahu’s government is cognisant of the fact that even though in a full-scale war Israel would prevail, Iran could still inflict serious damage with the ballistic missile capabilities it already possesses. President Biden - who as we noted in Thursday's newsletter had expressed stern criticism of Netanyahu and how he was prosecuting the war - on Wednesday was quick to assure the Israelis that America’s support was “ironclad.” He added "We're going to do all we can to protect Israel's security." Several members of the Israeli occupation force were killed in an ambush in Khan Younis on April 7 [photo credit: Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades] The Iranians may choose a cyber attack or use the ‘Axis of Resistance’ - their proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria – to respond to the embassy bombing. In a previous response to the killing of a senior advisor to the IRGC in Damascus, Iran chose to destroy what it claimed was an Israeli spy centre in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (see our 16 February newsletter.) Crucially the target was not inside Israel. The claim that the home of one of the three killed, a prominent Kurdish businessman, was a spy base was strongly denied by Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Still it gave Khamenei a war-avoiding and face-saving gesture, one that was not a direct hit on Israel. And while the Ayatollah was still pondering the form retaliation this time would take the Israelis further upped the ante on Wednesday morning with a targeted drone attack that killed three sons and four grandchildren of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza. Haniyeh who lives in Qatar's capital Doha showed no emotion when he was informed of the deaths just ahead of a visit to wounded Palestinians being treated in a hospital there. When asked if he would like to cancel the visit he replied “No we can continue. May God have mercy on them.” He later said “I thank God for this honour which he bestowed upon us with the martyrdom of my three sons and my grandchildren. With this pain and blood, we create hope, a future, and freedom for our people, our cause, and our nation.” The apparent complacency, the implacability, with which he took the news was both chilling and instructive. Hamas is prepared to sacrifice everything: its fighters, the families of its fighters, all the civilians trapped in Gaza to win this war. And against that is the implacability of the Israelis perfectly captured by Netanyahu’s political foe and War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz. Shortly after the killing of Haniyeh’s sons and grandchildren Gantz had this to say: The war with Hamas will take time. Youth in middle school will one day fight in the Gaza Strip, as in Judea and Samaria, and against Lebanon. But the truth must be clear, and the head must be high for our achievements: military-wise - Hamas is defeated. Its fighters are eliminated or in hiding. Its abilities are cut off, and we will continue to hit whatever's left. Victory will come, step by step. We are on our way to it and we won't stop. Gantz backs Netanyahu to the full in defying Biden and launching a full-scale offensive on Rafah, viewed by the Israelis as Hamas’ last redoubt. In that he is supported by the respected Israeli historian Benny Morris who wrote in Thursday’s New York Times An Israeli failure to take Rafah and smash Hamas’s last organised military formations and its governing structures will paint Israel, in its enemies’ eyes, as a weak, defeated polity, easy prey for the next potential assailant. Morris mentioned almost in passing the more than 1 million non-combatants who will be trapped between two implacable forces, one prepared to fight to the death whilst using civilians as a shield and the other armed to the teeth with high tech weaponry and little or no regard for those civilians. In such a stark and brutalist scenario lies the catalyst for a larger war, one that draws in not just Iran’s proxies but Iran itself and therefore America with consequences that are almost unimaginable.