Rafah Is Not Gaza's Stalingrad. It's Another Manipulation by Netanyahu - U.S. News - Haaretz.com Guest Post

Rafah Is Not Gaza's Stalingrad. It's Another Manipulation by Netanyahu - U.S. News - Haaretz.com https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-04-28/ty-article/.premium/rafah-is-not-gazas-stalingrad-its-another-manipulation-by-netanyahu/0000018f-2496-d0a5-abcf-37fe560b0000 Rafah Is Not Gaza's Stalingrad. It's Another Manipulation by Netanyahu Alon PinkasApr 28, 2024 In the summer of 2023 – which since October 7 seems like political eons ago – there was endless chatter, speculation, wishful thinking, misinformation, disinformation and real exploration regarding a so-called tripartite U.S.-Saudi-Israeli deal. The geopolitical logic was there, the ideas were there, the upside seemed like a no-brainer. The political feasibility was never there, however, and given the constitutional coup that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was instigating in Israel, it is doubtful U.S. President Joe Biden was ever convinced such a deal was possible. There were two elements that generated skepticism: the U.S.-Saudi component that would have included a NATO-like defense pact and a civilian nuclear reactor; and a Palestinian component that the United States, for some obscure and inexplicable reason, thought Israel was ready to entertain. Relitigating the concept's viability, pros and cons on the basis of pre-October 7terms is now futile. Yet the underlying geopolitical logic of October 6, essentially reconfiguring the Middle East, became more urgent, and arguably imperative, in the wake of the October 7 terror attack and ensuing war. Chas Freeman via Salon 10:39 AM (6 minutes ago) to salon https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-04-28/ty-article/.premium/rafah-is-not-gazas-stalingrad-its-another-manipulation-by-netanyahu/0000018f-2496-d0a5-abcf-37fe560b0000 Rafah Is Not Gaza's Stalingrad. It's Another Manipulation by Netanyahu Alon PinkasApr 28, 2024 In the summer of 2023 – which since October 7 seems like political eons ago – there was endless chatter, speculation, wishful thinking, misinformation, disinformation and real exploration regarding a so-called tripartite U.S.-Saudi-Israeli deal. The geopolitical logic was there, the ideas were there, the upside seemed like a no-brainer. The political feasibility was never there, however, and given the constitutional coup that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was instigating in Israel, it is doubtful U.S. President Joe Biden was ever convinced such a deal was possible. There were two elements that generated skepticism: the U.S.-Saudi component that would have included a NATO-like defense pact and a civilian nuclear reactor; and a Palestinian component that the United States, for some obscure and inexplicable reason, thought Israel was ready to entertain. Relitigating the concept's viability, pros and cons on the basis of pre-October 7terms is now futile. Yet the underlying geopolitical logic of October 6, essentially reconfiguring the Middle East, became more urgent, and arguably imperative, in the wake of the October 7 terror attack and ensuing war. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaking in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, last July, as Joe Biden listens in. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaking in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, last July, as Joe Biden listens in.Credit: Saudi Royal Court/Reuters Israel is not paying attention, though, nor is it willing or politically equipped to make strategic decisions. It's all tactical. Israel is consumed by justifiable rage, frustration and an impasse on three fronts: in Gaza against Hamas; in Lebanon versus Hezbollah; and, in the outer circle, against Iran. For weeks, Israel has been half-threatening to launch a massive operation in Rafah, on Gaza's southern border with Egypt. "There are four Hamas battalions there and destroying them is the key to eliminating Hamas" is the official line. The Hamas military wing's center of gravity is in the south, Israel Defense Forces generals explained to their U.S. counterparts in October and November, failing to provide an adequate reason as to why, in that case, Israel was planning an invasion of northern rather than southern Gaza. Since the war descended into pointless, goalless attrition, Israel has been raising the Rafah invasion as some imaginary tipping point that would end the war decisively. Yet Rafah is not Stalingrad, nor is it the Battle of the Bulge – certainly not from a strategic point of view while Israel is contemplating an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. But are these Israel's real choices? Is there a strategic road map that would conceivably be a game-changer? Yes. It's called the Biden Plan, and however imperfect or lacking details it may be, it is the only game in town unless Israel willingly wants to sink in the Gazan and Lebanese quagmires. "This is one of the most fateful choices Israel has ever had to make. And what I find both disturbing and depressing is that there is no major Israeli leader today in the ruling coalition, the opposition or the military who is consistently helping Israelis understand that choice – a global pariah or a Middle East partner – or explaining why it should choose the second," wrote Thomas Friedman in The New York Times on Friday. Friedman is a seasoned and astute observer of Israeli politics, society and national security. He knows the answer, and that is why "disturbing and depressing" is warranted.