[Salon] Arab countries are looking for balance as Israel-Iran tension escalates.

https://harici.com.tr/israil-iran-gerilimi-tirmanirken-arap-ulkeleri-denge-arayisinda/ Arab countries are looking for balance as Israel-Iran tension escalates 16.04.2024 Jordan has become a target of criticism for being a “Israel's ally” after entering its airspace early Sunday and shot down dozens of Iranian missiles and drones firing at Israel. Criticizing Israel's war in Gaza harshly, Jordan claimed that its actions against Tehran were a necessary step to "ensure the safety" of its citizens rather than defending Israel. Officials in Israel have hinted that other Arab countries have also helped either by opening their airspace or by providing intelligence and early detection support. However, Jordan was the only country that openly accepted the role it played. “[Jordan] may be taking a risk if the events escalate,” Jordan's former foreign minister and deputy prime minister Marwan Muasher told the Financial Times (FT), but “so far this is a limited risk.” Claiming that Amman's actions were not pro-Israel, Muasher said, “This was a way to prevent the tension from escilating. Moving the conflicts beyond Gaza will not benefit anyone, especially Jordan," he said. Israeli officials tried to highlight the help provided by the US, Britain and France, as well as their neighbors, and War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz praised 'regional cooperation'. Despite Israel's statements, Arab governments remained mostly silent, neither confirming nor rejecting any intervention, according to the FT. The region has called for restraint as they approach the war that many have feared since Hamas' raid on Israel on October 7. It is particularly difficult for Jordan to achieve this balance. The kingdom shares the same border with Israel and is the protector of the Al-Aqsa Mosque (Masjid al-Aqsa) in Jerusalem, which requires regular cooperation with Israeli officials. Amman also fears that Israel's war against Hamas will spread to its borders, especially from the occupied West Bank. However, Jordan's attitude during Tehran's response to the attack that Israel organized at the Iranian consulate in Syria this month, which led to the death of the senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, was the target of criticism on the grounds that Israel's interests were defended within the country at the expense of the interests of the country. A 30-year-old Jordanian woman, who did not want her name to be revealed for being pressured for criticizing the government, told the FT, "It is another thing to allow coalition planes to use their airspace, it is something else to actively drop these unmanned aerial vehicles for the sake of a country that committed genocide on our Palestinian brothers and risk the safety of your people." More than two-thirds of Jordan's population is known to be of Palestinian origin. Confirming that Jordan has blocked several aircraft, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said, "Let me be very clear, no matter where these unmanned aerial vehicles come from, from Israel, Iran or anywhere else, we will do the same again." Jordan, Israel and their Arab allies have been involved in the Middle East Air Defense Alliance, led by the U.S. military's central command (CENTCOM), which has enabled monitoring radar and early warning network drones and missile launches since at least 2022. Jordan has diplomatic relations with Iran, but these relations are cold. The fact that Iran threatens that Jordan will be the "next target" if it cooperates with Israel has once again shown the extent of the tension, the semi-official Persian news agency reported. The two biggest powers of the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are equally cautious against Iran. They have long seen Iran as an 'enemy' power, but in recent years they have tried to reduce tensions in the region by normalizing relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia re-established diplomatic relations with Tehran last year in an agreement mediated by China. They were also getting closer to Israel. The UAE normalized relations with Israel in 2020, and Saudi Arabia was preparing for a similar US-backed agreement before its war in Gaza, which began on Oct. 7. After Oct. 7, the UAE informed Washington that the U.S. wanted it to be applied for approval before launching any military operation from its territory. He warned that he did not want any U.S. presence in the UAE to be used against Iranian targets. This approach was born from the uncertainty over the extent to which the U.S. is committed to protecting the UAE from Iran or the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen with more missile defenses and more intelligence against the counterattack. Although the UAE and Saudi Arabia led the Arab coalition that interfered with the civil war in Yemen, they did not join the U.S-led naval task force to prevent the Houthis from attacking on ships in the Red Sea last year. There are similar accounts for Saudi Arabia to its neighbor in the Gulf. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal palace, said Riyadh would not officially allow the U.S. to use its territory for actions against Iran, but that it would “allow it if the U.S. takes responsibility for the consequences.” However, the Kingdom was wary of the dangers of escalating tension because 'after all, the risk of paying a price is high.' Shihabi said, “Everyone wants Iran's capabilities to be reduced because Iran is a malicious actor and threatens the security of the Gulf. But they don't want to be seen as part of an attack unless America is full-throttle. . . . they won't risk it,” he said. Saudi analyst St. Alghashian also told the FT that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to have blocked Iranian missiles because they do not want to appear to be taking sides. H.A., a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. 'Riyad was just trying to avoid this kind of scenario,' Heller said: 'This is tension after tension, which is of no use to Saudi interests.' In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there has been a long-standing disappointment due to the moderate reactions from the US to the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019 and to which Iran is blamed, and to the Houthi missile and drone attacks on Abu Dhabi in 2022. 'Although Saudi understands that the Israel-US dynamic is different, it believes that Israel is not as much a burden to the USA as it is a burden to the USA, but it is (almost) treated unconditionally,' Alghashian said.