Putin in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
Summary: Putin's visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE mark a
significant change in the relationship, as perceptions of US decline are
reinforced by Trumpian flip-flop.
President Putin visited Riyadh on 14 October and Abu Dhabi on 15 October. In a preparatory
interview
with the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya and others on 13 October he began with
the economy, claiming an increase of 38% with Saudi Arabia in the first
six months of 2019 and referring to major investments including SIBUR
Holding possibly building a billion-dollar petrochemical facility in
Saudi Arabia , and to a partnership in the "trust-based, sensitive area
of military and defence cooperation." He went on to "joint efforts to
resolve the regional crises", thanking Saudi Arabia for its positive
role in resolving the Syrian crisis, while Russia was working especially
closely with Turkey and Iran. Asked later about the presence of foreign
forces in Syria he said that all forces deployed illegitimately should
leave, and if Syria no longer needed Russia that would be just as true
for Russia.
Asked about the UAE and "the Russian initiative to establish a
collective security architecture in the Gulf region, especially in the
area of the Strait of Hormuz" he referred to the strategic partnership
memorandum signed last year; "we see the United Arab Emirates as one of
our very close and promising partners." At $1.7 billion Russian trade
with the UAE was the highest of the Gulf states but "this is not enough,
we are well aware of that".
After giving the Russian view of the Iraq war and the Libyan
revolution he said "As for Syria, we came to Syria to support the
legitimate government, and I would like to emphasise the word
‘legitimate.’ It does not mean that they do not have internal problems; I
am ready to talk about it in detail later. It does not mean that the
current leadership is not responsible for what is going on there. They
are, but it does not mean that we were to allow terrorist organisations
to capture Syria and to establish a terrorist pseudo-state there…
internal political contradictions must be and can be resolved by
political methods only."
Asked about the Abqaiq/Khurais attack and a possible Iranian role he
said "Our official position is as follows: we condemn any such actions,
end of story." MBS had asked whether Russia could take part in
investigating who was responsible and Russia had agreed (adding later
that Russia did not know who was the culprit). He declined to be drawn
on whether Russia would condemn Iran if it was revealed that Iran was
behind the attack. "Russia will never be friends with one country
against another… Russia and Iran are neighbours." Iran had its own
legitimate interests, and he called for dialogue; if the UAE and Saudi
Arabia had bilateral concerns "it is up to them to resolve them" – later
he said there was no need for a mediator, though friendly conversations
with the parties could play a positive role to some extent. Asked about
the JCPOA he said that the IAEA had confirmed that Iran had fully
complied with its obligations, and warned of the consequences of
treating a country unfairly; "When one party does not abide by its
obligations, why would the other still honour them?"
After a discussion of President Trump and global security and
disarmament issues Putin declined to be drawn on a role for Russia in
the Arab/Israel dispute; "It is up to all the stakeholders whether they
want to see someone in the process or not." Russia had very good
relations with Israel. What was important was a two state solution and
establishment of the state of Palestine.
The visits themselves were covered at length by the
Saudi and
UAE press agencies and on the
Kremlin
website without much of substance being added. As usual the importance
of such visits, if they are important at all and these were, is more
because they mark and symbolise a shift in the relationships of the
countries involved. They coincided more or less with a spectacular
exhibition of flip-flop on Middle Eastern policy from President Trump's
Washington (Putin pointedly said in the interview that he did not tweet
or follow Twitter, relying on his advisers to keep him informed of
anything important).
There is a widespread feeling in the Arab world that the US is
declining, or at least has declining interest in the Middle East. This
creates an opportunity for Russia. Putin's suggestion that Saudi Arabia
could use Russian air defence systems given the failure of US systems at
Abqaiq was treated as a joke, but it was more than that. Russian units
have begun patrolling territory around Manbij in north-eastern Syria
where US units were patrolling until recently. Russian soldiers
(apparently mercenaries, whether or not with Moscow backing) have been
killed fighting for Khalifa Haftar in Libya. Egypt is pressing Ethiopia
to accept an external mediator in the dispute over the Grand Renaissance
Dam being constructed on the Blue Nile and Sisi is expected to raise
the matter during a Russian African summit in Russia this week.
In Cold War days a stock Soviet accusation against the West was to
accuse them of fishing in troubled waters. The same accusation can be
levelled against Russia at least in some instances, but Russia has no
need to fish – there are vacuums which it is being invited to fill. A
Financial Times report behind a pay wall quotes some telling comments.
By Abd al-Khaliq Abdullah, a respected Dubai-based political
commentator, “[Russia and the UAE] are getting closer on all fronts,
including Syria. Russia is seen as the best way to counter Iranian
influence in Syria, and to help stabilise the situation there.” And by
Dmitri Trenin, head of the Moscow Carnegie Center, “Russia rarely tells
others what to do. It understands what each of them wants the most, and
what each might afford to do without, and then seeks mutual
accommodation on that basis.”
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment