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Monday, October 14, 2019

ArabDigest.org - Another tanker

Another tanker

Summary: Iranian tanker reportedly attacked off Jedda, but facts and responsibility unclear. More US forces to Saudi Arabia.
The oil price remains largely unaffected by recent events in and around Saudi Arabia. On 30 September Aramco announced that both production and capacity had been restored to the levels they were at before the Abqaiq/Khurais attack on 14 September, with production even a little higher than the pre-attack level of 9.7 mbpd to replenish inventories, and that supplies to customers had been maintained throughout. According to a Financial Times report behind a pay wall Saudi Arabia lost $2 billion of output.


Source IRIBNEWS
On 11 October Iran announced that the Sabiti, an Iranian oil tanker in transit in the Red Sea off the Saudi coast near Jedda, had been hit probably by missiles, in a "terrorist attack" and damaged but not set on fire (the Iranian report has apparently not been confirmed by any other source); Iranian TV denied a report that the missiles came from Saudi Arabia, and on 13 October Saudi Arabia denied responsibility. Images said to be taken after the attack showed no visible damage (but the hull was not in view). According to independent tracking information the Sabiti, a Suezmax tanker, was heading south after the incident "at a healthy speed" and not fully loaded. Oil prices rose by a dollar but have fallen back today (because of US sanctions Iranian oil has little direct impact on the oil price). On 12 October Iran said Sabiti had been hit by two missiles, and investigations continued; “an appropriate response will be given to the designers of this cowardly attack, but we will wait until all aspects of the plot are clarified”.
The US/international Eurasia Group political risk consultancy said that the proximity of the tanker to Jedda raised the possibility that the missiles had been fired from Saudi Arabia but “Another plausible theory is that it was an Israeli sabotage operation...The purpose would be to disrupt Iranian tanker activity in the Red Sea corridor as it heads towards the Suez Canal. A third possibility would be that the attack was conducted by a terrorist group” (possibilities might include an Iranian opposition group such as the Mojahedin-e Khalq or an anti-Houthi Yemeni group).
Also on 11 October the Pentagon announced the deployment to Saudi Arabia of  two more Patriot missile batteries, one THAAD ballistic missile interception system, two fighter squadrons and one air expeditionary wing; "Taken together with other deployments this constitutes an additional 3,000 forces that have been extended or authorised within the last month.” According to CNN this is in part because the USS Harry S Truman is unable to sail because of a a blocked electrical system so that the US Navy is unable to send a relief aircraft carrier.
President Trump's tweets have been even more difficult to make sense of than usual, and their implications for policy are obscure. The announcement of more forces for Saudi Arabia coincided with the controversial decision to withdraw US forces from Syria – "going into the Middle East is the worst decision ever made!... we are slowly and carefully bringing our great soldiers & military home."  By way of justification Trump explained "Are you ready? Saudi Arabia at my request has agreed to pay us for everything we are doing. That is a first…" (but only a first if you ignore the $16.8 billion Saudi Arabia paid towards the cost of the US-led war to liberate Kuwait). That in turn has led to complaints mainly on the social media that US forces are being sent to Saudi Arabia as mercenaries.
President Putin is visiting Riyadh today 14 October and Abu Dhabi tomorrow. He said in advance that Moscow could play a key role in easing tensions between the Arab Gulf states and Iran. He had no reliable information about responsibility for the Abqaiq/Khurais attack, and it would be wrong to determine guilt without reliable information (Russia had also said it was too early to assign blame for the Sabiti attack). Putin, who has not visited Riyadh in the last 10 years, said he had "very friendly personal relations" with MBS.

Another tanker

Summary: Iranian tanker reportedly attacked off Jedda, but facts and responsibility unclear. More US forces to Saudi Arabia.
The oil price remains largely unaffected by recent events in and around Saudi Arabia. On 30 September Aramco announced that both production and capacity had been restored to the levels they were at before the Abqaiq/Khurais attack on 14 September, with production even a little higher than the pre-attack level of 9.7 mbpd to replenish inventories, and that supplies to customers had been maintained throughout. According to a Financial Times report behind a pay wall Saudi Arabia lost $2 billion of output.

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