WPR Articles Nov. 22 — Nov. 30

Where Europeans See Catastrophe in Trump’s Victory, Asians See Chance for Change

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Europe and Asia are reacting quite differently to Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president. Many Europeans see the outcome as a sign of the decline of the liberal international order. Asians see an opportunity to build a new order in which Asian powers will be more prominent in setting the rules.

Bachelet’s Labor Policy Leaves No One Happy in Chile

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A month-long strike by Chile’s public sector employees ended earlier this month after workers failed to win a pay increase of 7 percent and instead accepted President Michelle Bachelet’s initial proposal of a 3.2 percent raise. In an email interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses labor relations in Chile.

How West Africa Became Fertile Ground for AQIM and ISIS

By: Anouar Boukhars | Feature

Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates have expanded their footprint in the Sahel and West Africa, looking to economic hubs and coastal areas that had previously been spared from violence. Unless regional governments and international actors change strategy, instability will likely deepen.

In India, Women’s Issues Make Headlines, but Not Progress

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

India’s minister for women recently declared that the country’s rape problem was exaggerated, and that the Indian media’s overemphasis on rape was negatively affecting tourism. In an email interview, Nandita Bhatla, of the International Center for Research on Women, discusses women’s rights in India.

Can Cooler Heads Prevail in the South China Sea?

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing

Since an international tribunal ruled in July that China’s claims to the South China Sea lacked legal basis, key actors have tried to ease tensions. Despite progress, translating these gains into sustainable solutions for the disagreements between China and five other claimants will prove difficult.

Could Foreign Policy Failures Sink Macedonia’s Government in Elections Next Month?

By: Paul Mikov | Briefing

When Macedonians go to the polls in parliamentary elections next month, foreign policy should weigh heavily on their minds. The government has declared that its foreign policy has been a success. But from relations with its neighbors to progress toward membership in NATO and the EU, how true is that?

Fear of the Unknown as Mexico Awaits the Trump Era

By: Carin Zissis | Briefing

On the morning after the U.S. election, the front pages of Mexican dailies responded to Donald Trump’s win with shock, and those fears aren’t unfounded. While it’s uncertain whether Trump will make good on his campaign promises, Mexico—and the U.S.—should brace themselves for the economic fallout.

From Immigration to Security, Why China Is the Key to Understanding Japanese Policymaking

By: Chris Burgess | Feature

China has come to drive Japanese policymaking in just a few years, from Okinawa and tourism to migration policy and labor shortages, and from educational and constitutional reform to security, whaling and trade. Understanding Japan’s social and political shifts, then, requires watching China.

Would Kyrgyzstan’s Constitutional Referendum Tighten Atambayev’s Grip on Power?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Kyrgyzstan will hold a referendum on Dec. 11 on proposed reforms to its constitution that would give more power to the prime minister, though many fear it would tighten President Almazbek Atambayev’s grip on power. In an email interview, Medet Tiulegenov discusses Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional referendum.

The Battle to Repair Iraq’s Social Fabric, Beyond Mosul’s Front Lines

By: Matthew Schweitzer | Briefing

With international attention focused on the battle for Mosul, there is an ongoing crisis on a forgotten battlefield in another part of northern Iraq. Predominantly Sunni towns like Hawija are a test for whether Iraq’s government and its proxies can mend ties and calm sectarian tensions.

To Counter Populism, Start by Taking Globalization’s Discontents Seriously

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The U.S. presidential election offered a clear example of how emotion and affect increasingly drive political behavior. But now that the shock of Donald Trump’s victory has worn off, resolve, and not despair, must be the order of the day for those who would seek to shore up the liberal international order.

Can South Africa’s ANC Survive Zuma’s Culture of Corruption?

By: James Hamill | Briefing

Even by the standards of his corrupt and largely disgraced presidency, the past month in South Africa has represented a nadir for Jacob Zuma. Has this notorious survivor finally run out of time? The ruling African National Congress, split between rival factions, finds itself in a no-win position.

Can Trump Calm European Nerves Over His Election?

By: Magnus Nordenman | Briefing

The surprise election of Donald Trump as America’s 45th president has upset long-standing assumptions about America’s role in the world. America’s European friends and allies are among those most worried about the future U.S. role in Europe, at a time when the continent is surrounded by instability.

Vulnerable to Climate Change, Costa Rica Works to Become a Carbon-Free Economy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Costa Rica ratified the Paris Agreement. After the vote, the environment minister said, “Costa Rica showed the world that it has the courage to take bold and timely decisions to work for a sustainable development.” In an interview, Mariel Yglesias discusses Costa Rica’s climate change policy.

Will the U.N. Post Make Nikki Haley Wish She Was Back in South Carolina?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

U.N. officials who feared that Donald Trump would nominate a unilateralist firebrand as ambassador hope that Nikki Haley is someone they can do business with. But if she struggles, it may not be due to her lack of foreign policy experience, but because of flaws in both the U.S. and U.N. systems.

Nigeria Looks to Untapped Mineral Riches to Revive Its Oil-Dependent Economy

By: Matthew C. DuPee | Briefing

Nigeria’s expansive but untapped mineral wealth is no secret. With sagging global oil prices and an ongoing local insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is moving to develop plans to diversify the economy, with its sights set on the mining sector.

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive Under Trump—and at What Cost?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Despite Donald Trump’s tough talk about canceling the Iran nuclear deal during the presidential campaign, it appears he may let the agreement remain in effect. But hostility to Iran seems rampant among his advisers, meaning the spirit of the agreement will likely be violated, with serious costs.

Local Governance Vacuums Are at the Heart of Mexico’s Teachers’ Protests

By: Jerónimo Mohar, Benoît Gomis | Briefing

The Mexican state of Michoacan is not only a bastion of drug cartels, but of a dissident teachers’ union vehemently opposed to education reforms. The same conditions that allowed organized crime and vigilante groups to flourish there are providing fertile ground for the teachers’ union to wreak havoc.

The Costs of Uncertainty With Trump’s Trade Policies

By: Kimberly Ann Elliott | Briefing

No matter who was elected president on Nov. 8, there was going to be a pause in U.S. trade policy. Donald Trump said he would go much further than Hillary Clinton, but there is uncertainty about what Trump will actually do once in office. Here is a rundown of key trade issues that Trump will face.

Why Trump’s ‘America First’ Could End Up Getting Left Behind

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The irony of Fidel Castro’s death is that, in closing the symbolic book on the Cold War, it accentuates the feeling that we are living through the closing moments of the post-Cold War period. A level of uncertainty has been introduced into national, regional and global politics not seen since 1991.