WPR Articles Nov. 15 — Nov. 23

Fear of the Unknown as Mexico Awaits the Trump Era

By: Carin Zissis | Briefing

On the morning after the U.S. election, the front pages of Mexican dailies responded to Donald Trump’s win with shock, and those fears aren’t unfounded. While it’s uncertain whether Trump will make good on his campaign promises, Mexico—and the U.S.—should brace themselves for the economic fallout.

From Immigration to Security, Why China Is the Key to Understanding Japanese Policymaking

By: Chris Burgess | Feature

China has come to drive Japanese policymaking in just a few years, from Okinawa and tourism to migration policy and labor shortages, and from educational and constitutional reform to security, whaling and trade. Understanding Japan’s social and political shifts, then, requires watching China.

Could Foreign Policy Failures Sink Macedonia’s Government in Elections Next Month?

By: Paul Mikov | Briefing

When Macedonians go to the polls in parliamentary elections next month, foreign policy should weigh heavily on their minds. The government has declared that its foreign policy has been a success. But from relations with its neighbors to progress toward membership in NATO and the EU, how true is that?

In India, Women’s Issues Make Headlines, but Not Progress

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

India’s minister for women recently declared that the country’s rape problem was exaggerated, and that the Indian media’s overemphasis on rape was negatively affecting tourism. In an email interview, Nandita Bhatla, of the International Center for Research on Women, discusses women’s rights in India.

Kenya’s Troop Withdrawal Could Seal the Fate of South Sudan’s Peace Process

By: Andrew Green | Briefing

In a sharp rebuke to the United Nations, Kenya has decided to pull its troops from the U.N. peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. To make matters worse, Kenya is also disengaging from South Sudan’s peace process, which was already on the verge of collapse. The moves by Kenya could cement its failure.

After Squandering Its Oil Wealth, Chad Faces an Economic Reckoning

By: Celeste Hicks | Briefing

A recent call for a vote of no confidence in Chad’s government over its management of the country’s oil wealth shows the level of anger at a deepening economic crisis. As with other oil-producing countries, Chad has waited in vain for prices to recover as two years of economic turmoil have taken their toll.

As U.S. Dollars Dry Up, Zimbabwe Risks Becoming a Cashless Society

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Zimbabwe is close to becoming a cashless society as the country runs out of U.S. dollars, which it uses as its currency. To counter the scarcity, the government plans to introduce bond notes that will be exchangeable with the dollar. In an email interview, Knox Chitiyo discusses Zimbabwe’s cash crisis.

Can Xi Pivot From China’s Disrupter-in-Chief to Reformer-in-Chief?

By: Damien Ma | Feature

Since assuming office in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has audaciously pursued a platform that can be simply distilled as “Make China Great Again,” relying on three pillars: fixing the Chinese Communist Party, transforming the economy, and asserting China as a global player. How has he fared?

How Will Trump Deal With the Big-Three Threats to International Security?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Expect Donald Trump to sound a lot different on the big-three security threats than President Barack Obama. On terrorism and nuclear nonproliferation, the changes may be more rhetorical than real. On climate change, if the U.S. walks away from its leadership role, the consequences will be grave.

How the West Misses the Point on Women’s Rights in Saudi Arabia

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, the Shura Council, which advises Saudi King Salman, refused to look into letting women in the kingdom drive, leaving Saudi Arabia as the only country in the world that forbids women from driving. In an email interview, Katherine Zoepf discusses women’s rights in Saudi Arabia.

Scandal in South Korea Exposes More Than Just Park’s Corruption

By: David Volodzko | Briefing

As many as 1 million South Koreans have taken to the streets of Seoul to demand President Park Geun-hye’s resignation over the scandal involving Park’s friend and informal adviser meddling in state affairs. But the protests have given little thought to the systemic problems that made this scandal possible.

Which Trump Will Cuba Have to Contend With, the Hard-Liner or the Dealmaker?

By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing

Cuba was not a major issue in the 2016 presidential campaign, but U.S.-Cuban relations may be collateral damage of Donald Trump’s stunning upset victory. Will Trump abrogate the dozen bilateral agreements already signed with Havana, or will he continue the talks underway on half a dozen other issues?

Will Donald Trump Use the U.N. for Foreign Policy Compromises?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Donald Trump has frequently criticized the U.N. and looks likely to disrupt multilateral diplomacy on issues like climate change. He might be kinder to the organization’s envoys and peacekeepers. Having laid out an incoherent vision of international security, he may need the U.N. to help fill some gaps.

How China’s State-Led Industrial Policy Is Exploiting Germany’s Open Markets

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, German Finance Minister Sigmar Gabriel spoke with his Chinese counterpart, Gao Hucheng, about his concerns over Chinese takeovers of German firms, while dismissing rumors of a serious trade dispute. In an email interview, Björn Conrad discusses Germany’s trade tensions with China.

Latin America’s Populists Are a Cautionary Tale for U.S. Under Trump

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election surprised many observers. But for Latin Americans, the tone, the content and the egomania that Trump put on display during the campaign had a familiar ring. Latin Americans had seen similar personalities take the stage before—and seen them win.

Pragmatism Guides Israel-Russia Ties, but Netanyahu Should Be Wary

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Russia might be doing all it can to secure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power in Syria, but that hasn’t dissuaded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from pursuing robust ties with Moscow. But Israel’s special relationship with the U.S. will inevitably limit its ties with Russia.

The Risks of Re-Election Fever in Latin America

By: Christine Wade | Briefing

Last week, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega was re-elected to a third consecutive term, his fourth overall since 1984. His victory echoes a growing trend across Latin America of presidents winning re-election, in many cases after changing the constitutional rules on term limits and re-election.

For Cyprus Reunification Talks, It Could Be Now or Never

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Reunification talks in Switzerland between Cyprus and northern Cyprus ended Friday with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mustafa Akinci, agreeing to reconvene next week. Both leaders cited progress, but many of the most contentious issues are yet to be resolved.

How Xi Is Trying to Make China Great Again

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Frederick Deknatel discuss Barack Obama’s final trip to Europe as president. For the Report, Damien Ma talks with Peter Dörrie about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reform agenda for China and the Communist Party.

What Could Trump’s Russia Policy Actually Look Like?

By: Matthew Rojansky | Briefing

President-elect Donald Trump has a major window of opportunity to reform U.S. policy toward Russia, subject to some considerable constraints. He could potentially jumpstart relations that are far more beneficial to U.S. interests than the current stalemate between Russia and the West.

Will Biological Weapons Be Terrorism’s ‘Next Big Thing’?

By: Steven Metz | Column

Over time, the fear produced by a particular form of terrorism declines as potential targets mentally adjust. Terrorist groups must therefore seek new forms of attacks to produce the same effect. This is where the Islamic State finds itself today. And “the next big thing” could be biological terrorism.

An Optimist’s Guide to Donald Trump’s World Order

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Could a Trump presidency not merely preserve the current international system, but actually pave the way for a new era of enhanced multilateral cooperation? I do not believe that this is going to happen. But here is a five-step outline of how Trump could actually make the international system stronger.

Economic Interests at Odds With Indigenous Rights in Colombia

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

According to the U.N., at least 21 human rights activists, mostly from indigenous communities, have been killed in Colombia this year, and many fear things will only get worse if a peace accord isn’t implemented soon. In an interview, Luis Fernando Arias discusses indigenous rights in Colombia.

Is Bosnia Backsliding Into Conflict, or Making Progress Toward EU Membership?

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

In September, the EU formally accepted Bosnia and Herzegovina’s application for membership. But the next month, as rhetoric around local elections and a referendum rose to a fever pitch, some analysts and politicians once again raised the prospect that the country’s very existence was under question.

Where Europeans See Catastrophe in Trump’s Victory, Asians See Chance for Change

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Europe and Asia are reacting quite differently to Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president. Many Europeans see the outcome as a sign of the decline of the liberal international order. Asians see an opportunity to build a new order in which Asian powers will be more prominent in setting the rules.

Would Kyrgyzstan’s Constitutional Referendum Tighten Atambayev’s Grip on Power?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Kyrgyzstan will hold a referendum on Dec. 11 on proposed reforms to its constitution that would give more power to the prime minister, though many fear it would tighten President Almazbek Atambayev’s grip on power. In an email interview, Medet Tiulegenov discusses Kyrgyzstan’s constitutional referendum.

Can Cooler Heads Prevail in the South China Sea?

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing

Since an international tribunal ruled in July that China’s claims to the South China Sea lacked legal basis, key actors have tried to ease tensions. Despite progress, translating these gains into sustainable solutions for the disagreements between China and five other claimants will prove difficult.

The Battle to Repair Iraq’s Social Fabric, Beyond Mosul’s Front Lines

By: Matthew Schweitzer | Briefing

With international attention focused on the battle for Mosul, there is an ongoing crisis on a forgotten battlefield in another part of northern Iraq. Predominantly Sunni towns like Hawija are a test for whether Iraq’s government and its proxies can mend ties and calm sectarian tensions.

To Counter Populism, Start by Taking Globalization’s Discontents Seriously

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The U.S. presidential election offered a clear example of how emotion and affect increasingly drive political behavior. But now that the shock of Donald Trump’s victory has worn off, resolve, and not despair, must be the order of the day for those who would seek to shore up the liberal international order.