WPR Articles May 12 — May 18

Why the State of the World Is Better Than You Think

By: Stewart M. Patrick, Megan M. Roberts | Briefing

Given global headlines, you might think the world is terribly off course, from geopolitical rivalries to Middle East mayhem. This noisy, negative narrative isn’t all wrong. But it has drowned out more positive developments in dealing with difficult global problems, from climate change to nonproliferation.

A Century After Sykes-Picot, Is There a Better Map for the Middle East?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The centenary of the Sykes-Picot treaty has stirred up resentments in the Middle East and a sense that the flailing states of the region never really existed as coherent geographic entities. But even if one could draw a better map of the region, it would not solve its deepest sources of distress.

LBJ, Vietnam and the Political Costs of Fighting a Hopeless War

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

Lyndon Johnson ignored the many signs of discontent over the Vietnam War because he was convinced that the political cost of retreat would outweigh the cost of fighting a war most Americans no longer supported. It is an error that has seemed to plague U.S. presidents for more than a half-century.

Economic Uncertainty Will Test Ireland’s Fragile Minority Government

By: Frank Barry | Briefing

The results of Ireland’s general election in late February were as indecisive as anyone could have imagined. Few are confident in the stability of the new minority government, led by Fine Gael and backed to a degree by its longtime rival, Fianna Fail. The breaking point will most likely come on economic policy issues.

Mekong Investment Underscores Japan’s Economic Clout in Southeast Asia

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Japan recently announced a three-year, $7 billion investment deal with the countries of the lower Mekong River to boost development and improve infrastructure. In an email interview, the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Phuong Nguyen discussed Japan’s relations in Southeast Asia.

Mexico Banking on New Market Access Through TPP to Grow Its Economy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Mexican Trade Minister Herminio Blanco told a meeting of business leaders earlier this month that “Mexico will become more competitive when the Trans-Pacific Partnership takes effect.” In an email interview, Raúl Francisco Montalvo Corzo discussed the potential effects of TPP membership on Mexico’s economy.

North Korea Party Congress Shows Kim’s Power—and Subtle Outreach to U.S.

By: Charles Armstrong | Briefing

The Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the first such meeting in 36 years, ended Monday with much pageantry in Pyongyang, but with little evidence that North Korea has changed its policy line in any substantive way. Kim Jong Un’s North Korea, the regime has declared, is here to stay.

Putin’s Intimidation Strategy Backfires as Eastern Europe Turns to NATO

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

When Vladimir Putin launched his campaign to prevent Ukraine from drawing closer to the EU in 2014, his objectives went beyond that country’s borders. Moscow’s moves were also meant as a signal to other countries in Eastern Europe that might have contemplated following in Ukraine’s steps.

Cuba Balances Reform With Defending the Revolution

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss NATO’s challenges, South Sudan’s peace process and North Korea’s party congress. For the Report, Ted Henken, joins us to talk about Cuba’s economy and opposition in the reform era.

Gambia Protests and Crackdown Set the Stage for Months of Turmoil

By: Michael W. Baca | Briefing

Protests that have gripped Gambia since mid-April present a serious political test for longtime President Yahya Jammeh. With a presidential election set for December, Gambia could find itself mired in turmoil for months, although Jammeh is unlikely to see his hold on power crumble in the immediate future.

How Serious a Threat Does ISIS Pose to Morocco, a Counterterror ‘Leader’?

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Last week, the Long War Journal reported that the “self-proclaimed head of the Islamic State’s arm in the Sahara has reportedly threatened to attack Morocco.” The message drew attention to the potential terror threats facing Morocco, which has for years taken pride in its domestic anti-radicalization programs.

Will the U.S. Draw the Right Lessons From Today’s Middle East Conflicts?

By: Steven Metz | Column

There has been a distinct pattern to America’s time as a global power: Whenever the U.S. becomes involved in a conflict, it quickly draws lessons that set the trajectory for the next one. This means that getting the lessons of today’s conflicts right will be vital to U.S. strategy-making.

Learning to Live With Europe’s Muddled Security Landscape

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Decision-makers rarely solve international tensions once and for all. They cobble together temporary fixes and leave future generations to solve the glitches. Europe’s leaders are now paying the price for their forebears’ failure to establish a durable order after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Massive Debt Revelation Another Blow to Mozambique’s Economy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Mozambique’s government was recently revealed to have borrowed $1.4 billion in previously undisclosed loans. In an email interview, Fernanda Massarongo Chivulele, a researcher at the Institute of Social and Economic Studies, discussed the scandal’s implications for Mozambique’s politics and economy.

With Sanctions Lifted, South Korea Eyes Investment Links to Iran

By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing

South Korean President Park Geun-hye visited Iran earlier this month, pledging to forge ahead and establish a new era of relations with Tehran built on closer economic cooperation. Park and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani agreed to 30 joint economic projects, totaling more than $37.1 billion.

Can Syria’s Kurds Leverage War Gains Into Political Autonomy?

By: Denise Natali | Feature

The breakdown of the Syrian state has been a boon for Kurdish groups. Since 2011, they have made significant territorial, economic and political gains. At the same time, they lack long-term support. How do these dynamics impact regional stability, Kurdish leverage in Syria, and Syrian end-states?

Defense Deal Shows Strength of Ties Between Singapore and Australia

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Singapore and Australia recently announced a $1.7 billion military cooperation deal, as part of a broader strategic partnership. In an email interview, Euan Graham, director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, discussed Australia’s defense and security relationship with Singapore.