WPR Articles April 22 — April 29

Island Deal Backlash Signals the Honeymoon Is Over for Egypt’s El-Sissi

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Two years ago, the Egyptian people spared no adjective in praise of their savior, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who in turn framed his lightning-fast rise to power as an expression of the people’s will. When he ran for president in 2014, he won in a landslide. But now the honeymoon is over.

From Australia to the EU, Can International Law Actually Protect Refugees?

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

A recent deal between the EU and Turkey for mass returns of refugees from Greece to Turkey has come under fire for its illegality. But Europe isn’t alone in taking advantage of the nonbinding nature of international law. For years, Australia has been criticized for shipping refugees to offshore detention centers.

Facing a Shifting Latin America, Venezuela’s Maduro Doubles Down

By: David Smilde | Briefing

A series of crises at home, including a new plan to ration electricity, are not the only issues facing Venezuela. Abroad, the regional coalition forged by the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is starting to unravel, complicating international relations for Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro.

Ukraine Faces Rejection Abroad and Upheaval at Home

By: David Klion | Briefing

More than two years after protests ousted corrupt President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine remains mired in corruption at all levels. The country’s recent political upheaval points to the need for a series of reforms that, while not especially likely, will be crucial if European integration is ever to succeed.

Don’t Kill the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review—Fix It

By: Steven Metz | Column

A bill recently introduced in Congress proposes getting rid of the Defense Department’s much-criticized Quadrennial Defense Review and replacing it with two other classified strategy documents. To an extent, criticisms of the QDR are warranted, but simply throwing it out may not be the best option.

As President, Trump Would Definitely Change the U.S. Military—but How?

By: Steven Metz | Column

Even if he wins the GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump’s bid for the White House remains a long shot. But strange things can happen in elections. While a Trump presidency may be unlikely, it would have far-ranging repercussions, particularly for U.S. defense policy and the American military.

Cuba’s Communists Face Contradiction of Economic Reform vs. Ideology

By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing

Cuba’s Communist Party congress this week focused on the economic, political and ideological challenges facing the party. On the questions of how to stimulate growth and manage relations with Washington, Cuba’s leadership faces inherent tensions between economic imperatives and political necessity.

U.S. Presidential Candidates Shake Things Up on Foreign Policy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and Peter Dörrie discuss Saudi Arabia’s Shiite minority; the U.K. referendum on EU membership; and instability in Nigeria’s Niger Delta. For the Report, Michael Cohen joins us to talk about foreign policy in the U.S. presidential election.

It’s Time for the U.N. to Refresh Its Neglected Cease-Fire Monitoring Skills

By: Richard Gowan | Column

International efforts to monitor the unraveling cessation of hostilities in Syria have been paltry, in part because the U.S. and Russia prefer a certain degree of opacity there. But even if they had wanted an effective international presence in Syria, it would have been hard to pull together.

Why Nagorno-Karabakh’s Conflict Turned Hot—and Could Again

By: Michael Cecire | Briefing

The recent intense fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan near the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh should be seen not as an isolated flashpoint, but as the culmination of years of escalating tensions. The regional economic downturn and antagonism between Russia and Turkey only add to the volatility.

With Amendments and Muslim Brotherhood Curbs, Jordan Follows Saudi Lead

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Jordan shuttered the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Amman. With King Abdullah’s other recent moves, including constitutional amendments to consolidate his power, the restrictions look like part of a general closing of political space in Jordan in the name of national security.

Can Vietnam’s New Leadership Deliver on ‘Last Good Chance’ for Change?

By: David Brown | Feature

In January, Nguyen Phu Trong, head of the Communist Party of Vietnam, fought off a challenge for the party’s top job. If Trong can also successfully fight corruption, Vietnam could become a competitive player in the global economy. But a crackdown on dissent could still undermine that opportunity.

Despite Optics of Obama’s Gulf Trip, U.S.-GCC Cooperation Remains Robust

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The readout from President Barack Obama’s trip last week to the Gulf reflects ongoing strains in his relations with the Gulf monarchs. Both sides share responsibility, and it will take time to shift perceptions in the region so that the ongoing cooperation taking place is viewed more positively.

Serbia Needs More Than Token Measures to Fight Corruption

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, Serbian police arrested 49 people, including officials from several government ministries and state-run businesses, on allegations of corruption, as part of a larger anti-graft campaign. In an email interview, Petrus C. van Duyne discussed Serbia’s fight against corruption.

West Africa’s Regional Force Against Boko Haram Is a Political Prop

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

In March, Benin announced that it would contribute 150 soldiers to the Multinational Joint Task Force, a 9,000-soldier West African coalition fighting Boko Haram. But rather than an integrated military outfit, the force is primarily a political prop, taking advantage of the optics of regional integration.

U.S. Special Ops in Syria: In the Fight Against Terror, Less Is More

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

President Barack Obama’s deployment of an additional 250 special operations forces to Syria has raised fears of another military quagmire in the Middle East. These fears are natural, but if anything, the move represents what the U.S. war on terrorism after 9/11 always should have looked like.

Why Austria’s Far-Right Freedom Party Is On the Rise Again

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, Norbert Hofer, the candidate from the far-right Freedom Party, came in first place with 36 percent of the vote. In an email interview, the University of Vienna’s Thomas Meyer discussed the elections and the state of politics in Austria.

Election Defeat Complicates Park’s Plans in South Korea

By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing

South Korea’s ruling conservative Saenuri Party, led by President Park Geun-hye, is looking for answers after a crushing loss earlier this month in legislative elections. The stunning reversal will reshape South Korea’s political landscape and constrain Park’s ability to pursue several domestic initiatives.

Old Guard Victorious in Vietnam’s Power Struggle

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s Judah Grunstein and host Peter Dörrie discuss violence in Nagorno-Karabakh, U.N. cease-fire monitoring, and West Africa’s regional anti-Boko Haram force. For the Report, David Brown discusses Vietnam’s leadership battles and prospects for economic growth.

Scottish Independence Back on the Table as Brexit Gains Momentum

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Recent polls show 45 percent of Britons in favor of staying in the EU. In Scotland that figure is higher, with some polls putting it at up to 70 percent. Not surprisingly, the specter of a new Scottish independence referendum has been raised as another potential risk of the U.K. voting for a Brexit.

Technology Transfer Is a Weak Link in the Global Health System

By: Jeremy Youde | Briefing

In mid-April, the Ugandan government admitted that the country’s only functioning cancer treatment machine had broken earlier that month. The episode illustrated the larger problems in global health around issues of technology transfers and long-term commitments to keep that technology working.