Published on April 28th, 2016 | http://lobelog.com/fear-of-a-hot-planet/#more-33997

Fear of a Hot Planet

by John Feffer
An extreme weather event hits Norway. Finally shocked into doing something radical about climate change, Norwegian citizens propel the Green Party into government, where it declares an immediate suspension of oil and gas production. The new prime minister promises to provide Europe instead with electricity from the next generation of “clean” nuclear power.
The European Union, heavily dependent on Norwegian hydrocarbons, isn’t happy. At the behest of Brussels, Russian commandos kidnap the Green prime minister and force him to restart the flow of oil and gas. To ensure compliance, the Russians become a shadow occupation force. The prime minister is desperate to avoid bloodshed and so tries to accommodate his new “partners.” Most Norwegians don’t see much change in their everyday lives. Some citizens, however, prepare to fight back.
This is the plot of Occupy, a Norwegian TV drama now available for streaming on Netflix. Some of the plot is all too plausible. For instance, Europe is indeed dependent on Norwegian energy. Norway is the second largest supplier of oil to the EU (at 12 percent) and the second largest supplier of natural gas (at 30 percent), in both cases after Russia. It’s not inconceivable that an extreme weather event could hit Norway. Major hurricanes routinely hit the country.
And perhaps the Norwegian Greens could some day take over the government, even though the party only has one seat in parliament after achieving a little less than 3 percent in the 2013 elections. Even without the Greens taking over, Norwegian politicians across the political spectrum take climate change very seriously. Just last month, the Norwegian parliamentoverwhelmingly passed legislation that will force the country to meet stringent carbon emission caps. Only the right-wing, anti-immigrant Progress Party — now, admittedly, the third largest party in the country — challenges the scientific consensus that humans are behind global warming.
Other elements of Occupy are perhaps less plausible. Norway is indeed researching new, presumably safer nuclear power plants, but these alternatives might never prove viable. Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine Russia and the EU teaming up to do anything — not even a game of mixed doubles, much less a soft invasion of a Scandinavian country. Presumably, Russia would welcome a Norwegian oil and gas stoppage, which would give Moscow more access to European markets and more leverage over Brussels.
And taking over Crimea is one thing — Finlandizing Norway quite another. Russia has historically had good relations with Norway, going back to the Soviet expulsion of the Nazis in World War II. The operation of Russian troops outside the “near abroad” of former Soviet lands with significant Russian-speaking populations is not in the cards.
Still, Occupy is a gripping drama, and an important reminder of the life-and-death stakes involved in petropolitics. Governments should indeed be embarking on radical efforts to cut back on carbon emissions, to which there will be considerable pushback. In the end, however, I suspect we’ll see a different kind of “occupation.”
Before I sketch out that scenario, let’s take a closer look at the Paris accord on climate change, signed last week at the UN on Earth Day, and its likely impact. http://lobelog.com/fear-of-a-hot-planet/#more-33997