March to Folly 2.0: The Next Western Military Intervention in Libya

Commentary | http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_march_to_folly_2.0_the_next_western_military_intervention_in5083 Mattia Toaldo
02nd February, 2016

REUTERS/Stringer

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As members of the anti-ISIS coalition meet today in Rome, the drumbeat to war in Libya grows louder every day. Last week, US President Barack Obama instructed his National Security Council to consider all options for extending the war against the Islamic State (ISIS) to Libya - a country that has seen little stability since the last Western intervention in 2011. This time, an ad-hoc coalition led by the United States and France will conduct the intervention, with neighbouring countries, the UK and Italy in supporting and legitimacy-conferring roles.
Those who want to bring the Western war against the Islamic State to Libya insist, as a US official put it in a private conversation, that any intervention would be about IS not about Libya. Alas, regardless of what it will be about, it will take place in Libya. That simple geographic reality means the complex political feuds and intrigues that have plagued Libya politics for the last five years will inevitably intrude on any Western intervention. Ultimately, a Western intervention that fails to account for Libyan politics and fails to consider what will replace ISIS in the event it is defeated will have no benefit for Libya or for the West. http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_march_to_folly_2.0_the_next_western_military_intervention_in5083