http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/737

U.S.-Russia Relations: Critical and Unstable

David C. Speedie  |  U.S. Global Engagement  |  July 2, 2015
In October 2014, the Council posted an article titled "Needs Work: A Troubled U.S.-Russia Relationship," in which we noted somberly that "if there is one point of agreement between pundits in Moscow and Washington these days, it is that U.S.-Russia relations are at a post-Cold War nadir."
Eight months on, what was a troubled relationship is now on life support, and the deterioration has taken place in the most existentially perilous area of arms control, specifically nuclear weapons. "NATO reviews nuclear deterrent after Russian rhetoric hardens" was the headline in an article in the Financial Times of June 25. While denying that there are plans to place new nuclear weapons in Europe—a plan that would not find favor among many European members—NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is reportedly concerned that Russia is now "using nuclear rhetoric and more nuclear exercises as part of their defense posturing." U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter has joined the harsh condemnation, describing Russian President Vladimir Putin as "out of tune with the times and the way responsible leaders have conducted themselves [on the nuclear threat]." The reasons for concern include Russia's proposal to add some 40 intercontinetal ballistic missiles to its arsenal, increase flights of nuclear-capable bombers over NATO's eastern flank countries, and deploy missile launchers in Russia's westernmost enclave of Kaliningrad, with the potential to reach Baltic and Eastern European capitals.
Sobering stuff, indeed, but, as always, this is not the whole story. It takes two to ratchet up the pace of the lethal race, and from Moscow's point of view these are defensive measures necessitated by a strategic series of moves to virtually encircle Russia's western flank. These may be cataloged under a list of Strangelovian NATO maneuvers:

• BALTOPS, an annual military exercise in the Baltic Sea, this year involving 5,600 troops, 50 warships, 60 aircraft and landing craft; and Exercise Saber Strike, with 7,000 troops conducting drills in Lithuania, Latvia, as well as Poland
• In Eastern Europe, Exercise Noble Jump simulates a deployment of 1,500 troops from 11 countries
• In the Black Sea, U.S., Canadian, and German ships comprising the Black Sea Rotational Force conduct war games with the navies of Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey (An ironic footnote here is that in early May, Bulgarian Defense Minister Nicolai Nenchev observed that Bulgaria, while in NATO, was almost 100 percent dependent on Russia for its military equipment.)

These constitute a significant stepping-up of NATO force activity in the extended region over recent years. All in all, as the Financial Times reported on June 10:http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/737