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Friday, April 24, 2015

WPR Articles April 20, 2015 - April 24, 2015

Editor’s Note

How might a final deal between Iran and the West over Tehran’s nuclear program reshape the Middle East? In his feature this week, Trita Parsi explores the regional implications of a successful nuclear agreement and the potential for rapprochement between the United States and Iran. “Instead of partnership,” Parsi writes, “Tehran is offering Washington a truce.”

One country that could be affected by any regional realignment is Yemen, where women are fighting to protect the gains of the 2011 uprising, despite new turmoil from the Saudi-led military campaign against Houthi rebels. As Patricia Leidl and Valerie M. Hudson explain, “the promise of women’s rights lies shattered amid the rubble of Yemen’s failed peace process,” which was doomed to fail since it didn’t include more women.

And in our latest country report, Elisabete Azevedo-Harman and Belarmino Jelembi look at how rising inequality, falling oil prices and a looming succession crisis are testing Angola’s postwar stability.

Coming up on WPR: Ernest Harsch on activists in Burkina Faso pushing hard for a political reckoning, Jason Marczak on how Argentina can live up to its potential and, in our next feature, Sarah Chayes on corruption in Nigeria as both a governance problem and a moral challenge for society.

Frederick Deknatel, Associate Editor
 

WPR Articles April 20, 2015 - April 24, 2015

Assad’s Western Media Campaign Reveals His Weakness, Not Strength

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad keeps presenting himself in interviews with Western media outlets as the necessary partner for any political solution to Syria’s civil war, but his regime is abandoning more territory and substituting barrel bombs for manpower. With the latest battlefield shifts, he looks weaker.

Despite Talk of Peace in Afghanistan, the Taliban Prepare to Fight

By: Michael Semple | Briefing
Amid reports of possible negotiations with the Taliban to end Afghanistan’s war, revived by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, the Taliban leadership sent its fighters back into battle. Talk of negotiations ignores how far removed Qatar-based Taliban diplomats are from the reality of the fighters on the ground.

U.S. Seeks to Reassure Japan, South Korea on Asia Pivot

By: Richard Weitz | Briefing
Ashton Carter recently concluded his first visit to East Asia since becoming U.S. secretary of defense. His discussions in Japan and South Korea signaled that he has quickly become a pivotal player in the administration’s policy of “rebalancing” U.S. strategic priorities toward the region.

Indonesia’s Jokowi Vows Strict Policy, Death Penalty for Drug Crimes

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Indonesia’s Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected the final appeals of two prisoners from France and Ghana currently on death row for drug smuggling. In an interview, Gloria Lai, a senior policy officer at the International Drug Policy Consortium, discussed Indonesia’s zero-tolerance approach to drugs.

Obama’s Islamic State Strategy Avoids Failure—but Also Success

By: Steven Metz | Column
When U.S. President Barack Obama announced his strategy for countering the so-called Islamic State last September, it was met with an immediate volley of criticism. Though much of this was fueled by partisanship, even when graded by its own objectives, the Obama strategy has had mixed results.

More

South Africa’s Zuma Faces Double Bind on Troubled Economy

By: James Hamill | Briefing
The past two years have been deeply unsettling ones for South Africa’s economy, which like other emerging markets around the world, including the once-solid BRICS, is in a sea of trouble. That stands in sharp contrast to the established view of South Africa as an African powerhouse and emerging market leader.

U.N. Serves as Perfect Alibi for Big Power Inaction in Unfixable Crises

By: Richard Gowan | Column
The U.N.’s peacemaking and peacekeeping apparatus has been stretched to the breaking point by the fallout from the Arab revolutions. But while the organization has struggled to resolve crises in Syria, Yemen, Mali and Libya, the U.N. was clearly being set up for potential failure in each case.

Suspending Money Transfers to Somalia Hurts the Poor, Not Terrorists

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Earlier this month, Kenya suspended the licenses of 13 Somali money transfer agencies operating in Nairobi in a bid to limit funding to al-Shabab. In an interview, Sarah Hearn of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation discussed the role of remittances in Somalia’s economy.

Truce: Iran, the U.S. and the Middle East After the Nuclear Deal

By: Trita Parsi | Feature
The recent framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 removed a major hurdle toward resolving the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Could a final deal bring about a broader rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran? And how would it affect Iran’s regional policy in the Middle East?

Crises in Ukraine, Mediterranean Put NATO Solidarity to the Test

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Over the past year, NATO seemed to rediscover a common purpose after two decades of trying out for different roles: putting a brake on the westward spread of Russian influence. Trouble on the southern periphery, however, now competes with the urgency of addressing problems on the eastern front.

Hedging Their Bets, China, Japan and South Korea Push Trilateral Ties

By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing
Foreign ministers from China, Japan and South Korea gathered in Seoul last month to discuss ways to restore trilateral diplomacy. Despite bilateral strains, trilateralism should not be underestimated. It allows all parties to compartmentalize individual grievances and provides diplomatic camouflage for engagement.

In New Rivalry, Great Powers Come Calling on India and Pakistan

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
When Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Pakistan this week, the reception was something to behold, but it was hardly unique. South Asia is abuzz with high-stakes diplomatic activity. And the pace of diplomacy, along with the mountains of cash being discussed, shows no sign of diminishing.

India’s Ties With North Korea Cordial but Limited

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last week, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong was in New Delhi for talks with Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj on North Korea’s nuclear program and to request additional humanitarian assistance. In an interview, Ankit Panda of The Diplomat discussed India’s ties with North Korea.

Russia Becomes the Middle East’s Preferred but Flawed Nuclear Partner

By: Chen Kane, Miles Pomper | Briefing
As Turkey breaks ground on its first, Russian-backed nuclear power plant, Russia is on the verge of becoming the nuclear Wal-Mart of the Middle East. Across the region, Russian nuclear exports come with many advantages but also raise concerns for the international community, including on oversight and regulation.

Yemen’s Women Fight to Protect Uprising’s Gains Amid New Turmoil

By: Patricia Leidl, Valerie M. Hudson | Briefing
For a few brief months in 2011, Yemen returned to a more equitable and less conservative past, with more space for women’s rights. But four years later, amid the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis, that promise lies broken in the rubble of Yemen’s peace process, which failed to include more Yemeni women.
 

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