WPR Review 2/17-2/20

Feb. 17, 2015 - Feb. 20, 2015 Ending Haiti’s Crisis Begins With Giving Haitians a Fair Vote By: Brian Concannon Jr. | Briefing Haiti’s government has stumbled lately, after failing to hold elections for over three years amid criticisms for its human rights and economic record. How the international community handles Haiti’s electoral crisis will shape whether Haiti rebounds or falls deeper into undemocratic rule and unrest. North Korea’s Economic Reforms Constrained by Geopolitical Isolation By: Christopher Green | Briefing North Korea’s launch of five short-range missiles earlier this month threw icy water on some recent and uncharacteristically positive media coverage of Kim Jong Un’s regime. Despite some political and economic modifications underway, the end product is unlikely to be as impressive as the rhetoric. Egypt Courts More Trouble With Its Gulf Backers Over Libya By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines Days after ordering airstrikes on targets of the so-called Islamic State in Libya, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi may be in hot water with his Gulf patrons. On Thursday, the Gulf Cooperation Council backed Qatar and rebuked Egypt for accusing Doha of supporting “terrorism” in a spat over actions in Libya. The U.S. Must Prepare for the Dissolution of Iraq By: Steven Metz | Column Iraq is an artificial creation cobbled together from provinces of the old Ottoman Empire by outsiders. Dissolution into three parts—a Sunni Arab west, a Kurdish north and a Shiite section in the south—is so likely that American strategists should be thinking about how to respond. After Compaore, Burkina Faso Struggles to Rid Army From Politics By: Kamissa Camara | Briefing Despite elections slated for October, the compromises that civilian leaders have made with the military during a precarious transition since the fall of President Blaise Compaore show how difficult it is for Burkina Faso, a country ruled by the military since 1966, to exclude the army from politics.     More Fractured Tanzania Opposition Unlikely to Unseat Ruling CCM Party By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month 33 members of Tanzania’s opposition were arrested at an allegedly illegal rally in Dar es Salaam. In an email interview, Michael Jennings of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London discussed domestic politics in Tanzania. The Deluge: Algeria’s Pending Succession Crisis By: Azzedine Layachi | Feature Algeria today faces important challenges, including social transformations, economic uncertainty and political sclerosis. All of these issues might become exacerbated by a pending leadership succession, the smoothness of which is far from guaranteed, due to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s poor health. Ukraine Deal Could Buy U.S. Time to Formulate Effective Russia Policy By: Richard Weitz | Column The fate of the latest cease-fire in Ukraine remains precarious, and even if it unexpectedly endures, a lasting settlement to the conflict will still prove elusive. But the truce might buy time for progress on other measures that would limit the risks of military escalation in Europe. Cabinet Reshuffle Kicks Off a Challenging Year for Canada’s Harper By: David Klion | Trend Lines Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper shook up his Cabinet, rearranging key members of his foreign policy team ahead of federal elections. Harper has faced a series of departures in what is shaping up to be a difficult election year, with falling energy revenues and challenges abroad. Crises in Ukraine, Libya Confront NATO With Risk of Division By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column This past weekend, militants in Libya aligned with the so-called Islamic State brutally executed 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians. Even as most of Europe’s attention remains focused on the east and the fighting in Ukraine, the horrific murders highlight the threat the continent faces to the south. Fishing Wars: China’s Aggression Could Stoke Future Conflict By: Johan Bergenas , Ariella Knight | Briefing Today a major maritime challenge is building up out of sight: control over the world’s fisheries. China’s aggressive behavior in particular should be considered an early warning sign of the security implications that unmanaged fisheries and illegal fishing could have for future conflicts. Islamic State Targets Minorities to Exploit Rifts in Arab Societies By: Frida Ghitis | Column By killing Yazidis on Mount Sinjar and Kurds in Kobani, by executing American and British hostages, by targeting a Jewish supermarket in Paris and now Egyptian Christians in Libya, the so-called Islamic State aims to exploit divisions within the countries and societies they seek to overtake.