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Tuesday, February 10, 2015

CFR Update: Obama to Request New Powers to Fight ISIS

Top of the Agenda

Obama to Request New Powers to Fight ISIS
President Barack Obama is expected to send his request for new authorization (AP) to use force against ISIS to Congress as early as Tuesday. The White House's request would pave the way for lawmakers to vote on the scope of the campaign against ISIS for the first time; Obama has relied on congressional authorization granted to the George W. Bush administration during his time in office. Separately, United Arab Emirates fighter jets resumed (Al Arabiya) air strikes from a Jordanian air base against ISIS positions on Tuesday after suspending its air strikes in December. Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al Assad said that his government was being indirectly informed (BBC) by third parties of coalition air strikes in Syria, though there has been no direct cooperation between the United States and Syria since U.S. airstrikes began in September.

Analysis

"A comprehensive U.S.-led strategy must involve partnering with Sunnis in fighting ISIS and reassuring Sunnis that there will be no Shia death squads after ISIS’ defeat. ISIS is on the run, but current U.S. policy isn’t taking full advantage of that. Now is the time. If the West addresses deficiencies in its own strategy, weaknesses in ISIS’ own framework will cause the group’s downfall," write Michael Pregent and Robin Simcox for Foreign Affairs.
"Liberating Damascus is an unachievable objective. But training and equipping is no antidote for the fundamental shortcomings in political leadership and the lack of political will to invest in crafting lasting diplomatic achievements. At best, the train-and-equip missions underway in Iraq and Syria can supplement and assist the advantages of strong political institutions. But they cannot under any circumstances substitute for them," argues Geoffrey Aronson for Al Jazeera.
"Even if we say that we have entered upon a war between Islamist extremism and modernity, the locus of that struggle is shifting from the West to the Islamic world itself. This is the significance of the rise and spread of the Islamic State. The 'caliphate' in Iraq and Syria represents a very serious threat to the West, but it is an existential challenge to the Islamic regimes in the region," writes James Traub in Foreign Policy.

PACIFIC RIM

Japan Adopts New Aid Policy
Tokyo revised (Japan Times) its foreign aid charter on Tuesday, allowing the country to fund non-military operations of foreign forces. The move comes amid a push for Japan to play a larger role in global security.
CHINA: California-based chip maker Qualcomm said it will pay a record $975 million fine (WSJ) as part of its settlement with Chinese anti-trust regulators. Chinese authorities say that the company violated China's anti-monopoly law. China accounted for about half of Qualcomm's $26.5 billion in revenue last year.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA

Modi's Party Loses in Delhi Elections
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won in a landslide victory (PTI) in assembly elections in Delhi, securing sixty-seven out of seventy seats, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party won three. Leaders of the three-year-old AAP pledged to fight corruption (WSJ) and lower electricity and water prices for the poor.
AFGHANISTAN: Suspected Taliban militants attacked (Radio Free Europe) police headquarters in Kunduz province, killing one police officer. Authorities said militants detonated two suicide bombs before three gunmen became engaged in a shootout with police. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but violence between suspected Taliban fighters and Afghan forces has escalated following the end of U.S. and NATO combat missions at the end of 2014.
This CFR InfoGuide explores the reemergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Putin Meets With Sisi in Cairo
Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Cairo on Tuesday to meet with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi on a two-day state visit (BBC) to boost bilateral ties, amid escalating violence in Ukraine and cool U.S.-Egyptian relations. This is Putin's first visit to Egypt in a decade.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Niger MPs Approve Sending Troops to Nigeria
Niger's parliament unanimously approved (Al Jazeera) sending troops to northern Nigeria to join a regional offensive against Boko Haram Monday.  Meanwhile, Boko Haram bombed (Reuters) a Niger border town, killing five people, and kidnapped a bus in Cameroon that had been carrying at least twenty people, sources said. 
SOUTH SUDAN: Rebels shelled (AFP) government positions in the South Sudanese oil town of Bentiu on Tuesday according to Defense Minister Kuol Manyang. The attacks come a day after the UN launched a $1.18 billion appeal to stave off famine in the country.

EUROPE

Fighting in Ukraine Intensifies Ahead of Peace Talks
Ukrainian officials said separatist rebels shelled (AP) the town of Kramatorsk on Tuesday, more than thirty miles behind the front line. Both sides are reporting advances: Government forces launched an offensive on the port of Maruipol, and rebels say they have encircled the railway hub Debaltseve. Meanwhile, U.S. President Barack Obama backed German and French diplomatic efforts, saying he would await (NYT) the outcome of upcoming Ukraine peace talks before deciding on whether to arm Ukrainian government forces.
CFR's Stephen Sestanovich argues that the goal of the United States and its allies should be avoiding military confrontation.
RUSSIA: Six hundreds Russian troops began military exercises (Deutsche Welle) in Crimea on Tuesday, according to state media reports. Separately, two thousand Russian reconnaissance troops are reportedly holding large-scale exercises in southern Russia near the Ukrainian border.
This CFR Backgrounder investigates the strength of the Russian military.

AMERICAS

United States Forms Cybersecurity Agency
The Obama administration is set to announce the creation of a new agency (WaPo), the Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center, to thwart the growing threat of cybersecurity attacks.
VENEZUELA: Standard & Poor's rating agency downgraded (Merco Press) Venezuela's long-term credit ratings to CCC, citing dropping oil prices and the government's failure to correct economic distortions.
This CFR Backgrounder looks at Venezuela's economic challenges.


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