Published on October 24th, 2014 | http://www.lobelog.com/the-gccs-security-dilemma/

The GCC’s Security Dilemma

by Mark N. Katz
The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman—are frustrated. Four of them—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE—have vast quantities of petroleum. All of them are monarchies. And all of them are militarily weak. Thus, ever since the Cold War (and even before the formation of the GCC in 1981), the states that formed the GCC have looked to the United States for protection.
Yet the states of the GCC believe they have good reason to fear for their security. Their rival, Iran, is actively supporting Shia allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. In addition, while the Sunni-jihadist Islamic State (ISIS or IS) is virulently anti-Shia and anti-Iranian, it could soon pose a security threat to Saudi Arabia and other GCC states if it is not contained.
The GCC’s fear that Washington is not as strongly committed to its security as it was in the past was heightened by the Obama administration’s withdrawal of American forces from Iraq in 2011 and its unwillingness to take military action against the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria last year. While the GCC states welcome (and some have even joined) the US-led bombing campaign against IS, they fear that it will not suffice to stop the group, much less defeat it.

The GCC states also fear that what they see as decreased American interest in their security does not just reflect the Obama administration’s policy, but that it will also be the policy of subsequent administrations—Republican or Democrat. They fear that the North American “shale revolution” that has resulted in greatly increased American oil production is leading to a perception in Washington that the US and its Western allies are no longer so dependent on Gulf petroleum, and thus the security of these states will become a less vital concern for the United States. In addition, they worry that if the Obama administration’s efforts to improve US-Iranian relations prove successful, the resulting expanding business ties between the two countries would lead to future administrations giving less priority to Gulf Arab concerns about Iran.