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Special Section: Perspectives On Ukraine Crisis And The Road Ahead
By John Barry, former National Security Correspondent for Newsweek Magazine
INTRODUCTION:Vladimir Putin’s supposed orchestration of events in Ukraine has been taken by many as ominous evidence of his power and cunning. In actuality, however, his handling of Ukraine is a disaster for Russia’s interests.
An important question-- What will he do next? No need to ask. At a July session of Russia’s national security council, Putin “emphasized the need for a buffer zone with the western alliance [i.e. NATO],” according to a semi-official account, which then explained: “Moscow views Ukraine as critical to its geo-strategic posture to maintain a buffer zone between the Russian Federation and countries bordering Russia that belong to NATO”.
In this crisis, both the US and the European Union bear their share of responsibilities. The U.S. pushed too hard to impose NATO too close to Russia. The EU did not have a clear Ukrainian policy for years. It initiated association agreements with a firm intention to avoid Ukrainian membership in the E.U. and supported the Ukrainian revolution without planning to bear the costs of its follow up. In the continuing confrontation, however, Europe has far more leverage than many credit.
Beyond a compromise, what to expect next? Aside from Ukraine, the European States bordering Russia are Finland (neutral but impregnable), Belarus (safely under Moscow’s thumb) and three small states along the Baltic shore: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. To Putin, bent on expelling western contagion from Russia’s borders, the three Balts (in analysts’ shorthand) are logical targets.
So Europe faces a new challenge: There are early warnings that Putin, accepting that for the moment he has been checked in Ukraine, has started to move against two of the Baltic states. The struggle for Estonia and Latvia has likely begun
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