Europe's Nightmare Could Still Come True: A NATO-Russia War over Ukraine

Europe's Nightmare Could Still Come True: A NATO-Russia War over Ukraine

10/07/14

Dmitri Trenin

Security, Foreign Policy, Ukraine, Russia, United States

Should the cease-fire be allowed to break down completely, the danger of a war in Ukraine will immediately reappear. Both sides must take urgent steps to avoid it. 

Despite numerous violations, the cease-fire in Ukraine's Donbass region is largely holding. For very different reasons, President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin of Russia have come to lead the parties of peace in their respective capitals. Economic issues clearly top the agenda in both Ukraine and Russia.

Yet, the cease-fire remains very brittle. The Donetsk airport and the city of Donetsk itself have seen some heavy fighting, with many civilian casualties. The parties of war on both sides of the front line have not given up their ambitious goals. Should the cease-fire be allowed to break down completely, the danger of a big war in Ukraine will immediately reappear.

This scenario must be absolutely barred, as it risks escalation to a full-scale military confrontation between Russia and NATO. However, mere avoidance of war is not good enough. The perilous political dynamics in Eastern Europe need to be reversed. To do that, the following immediate steps are in order.

1. Deploying OSCE military observers, in sufficient numbers and appropriately armed, along the lines of engagement in Donbass, starting with the Donetsk area, and along the Ukraine-Russia border adjacent to it;

2. Reaching an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, with the European Union's active participation, on the gas price for Ukraine, and on the associated issues, such as a schedule for the gas debt repayment, which would allow Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine this coming winter;

3. Starting a political dialogue, mediated by the OSCE, between the representatives of Ukraine and of the people of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, with a view, initially, to restoring contacts and communication between them, and eventually to agreeing on a formula for reintegration.

Ironically, but also tragically, given the number of people killed and the extent of the damage sustained, the main players in the Ukraine crisis have already achieved their most important objectives and can now well agree on a new provisional status quo.

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