Israel’s Iron Maginot Line System

Mark Stout

August 4, 2014 · in Commentary  |  http://warontherocks.com/2014/08/israels-iron-maginot-line-system/

Is Israel’s Iron Dome a success or a failure? That depends on who you ask and on what level of war you look at. Its tactical success is unclear at this point, but the scale of Israel’s Operation Protective Edge suggests that it is a strategic failure. A more nuanced answer may also include the fact that it represents a squandered opportunity for political progress.

To many people, the Iron Dome system appears to be a modern miracle. Israeli officials tout the system as having “very, very high” success rate in intercepting the numerous rockets launched from Gaza, allegedly something in the range of 90%. The Washington Post reports that “it has allowed residents across the south [of Israel] to carry on with a measure of normality,” and quotes an Israeli as saying, “I can’t even explain with words how great it is…Now I can go out. I still get scared, but not like before.” There is even worry that Israeli citizens are too complacent now for their own physical good. Clearly, Iron Dome has had a major calming effect on the Israeli population.
On the other hand, there have been claims that it does not actually perform as advertised. John Mecklin recently wrote in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that Iron Dome is a “public relations weapon” but a technical failure. He maintains that when studied afterwards its performance always turns out to be less impressive than originally claimed. To further his argument he cites estimates from MIT scientist Ted Postol, a well-known missile defense skeptic, who states that Iron Dome may only be intercepting 5% or less of the rockets it fires at.
From one perspective, whether or not Mecklin and Postol are correct is irrelevant. Consider some history. As I wrote last year, during Operation DESERT STORM, the United States deployed Patriot missile systems to Israel to protect it against Iraqi ballistic missiles.  After the war, the U.S. military claimed 50% effectiveness for the Patriot system.  The very same Ted Postol challenged these numbers and argued that the real effectiveness was close to 0%.  Eventually, the Defense Department lowered its estimates to 40%.  Neither figure is very impressive, tactically speaking. However, in a strategic sense, the Patriots worked perfectly. They had a political impact by the sole virtue of their presence (combined with a vigorous but even less technically successful Scud hunt in western Iraq): they kept Israel’s Likud Prime Minister Yitzhak from striking Iraq and thereby probably saved the anti-Saddam coalition.http://warontherocks.com/2014/08/israels-iron-maginot-line-system/