WPR Articles March 17, 2014 - March 21, 2014

Global Insider: New Electoral Rules Could Limit Pluralism for Arab Israeli Political Parties

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, the Israeli parliament passed a law raising the threshold for parliamentary representation from 2 percent to 3.25 percent of votes in parliamentary elections. In an email interview, Dov Waxman, an associate professor of political science at Baruch College and at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York as well as the co-director of the Middle East Center for Peace, Culture and Development at Northeastern University, explained what the change means for Arab political parties in Israel.

Global Insights: Turkey’s Russia Policy Put to the Test by Ukraine Crisis

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Over the past few years, Turkey’s “zero problem with neighbors” policy has become something of a joke, with Turkey now the only major country without ambassadors in Egypt, Syria and Israel simultaneously. One major exception was arguably Turkey’s relations with Russia, which have remained solid. Now the Crimea crisis has confronted Turkey with the most serious challenge to its Russian policy since the Cold War.

In Sidelining Rival, Uganda’s Museveni Might Drive Internal Challenges Underground

By: Gaaki Kigambo | Briefing

A recent move by Uganda’s ruling NRM party all but secured yet another opening for longtime President Yoweri Museveni to represent the party without any internal challenge in the next elections in 2016. However, instead of securing party unity and cohesion, as is hoped, the efforts to undercut a rival have the potential to drive internal dissent further underground, where it might hurt Museveni and the NRM more.

Global Insider: Justice System on the Brink of Collapse in Libya’s Security Vacuum

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

This month, Saadi Gadhafi, the son of former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, was extradited from Niger to Libya to face trial. In an email interview, Hanan Salah, a Libya researcher at Human Rights Watch, explained the progress and failures to date of Libya’s post-Gadhafi judiciary.

Friend and Threat: Ukraine Crisis Confronts Belarus’ Lukashenko With Russia Dilemma

By: David Klion | Briefing

The crisis in Crimea has put world leaders in awkward positions, but perhaps none more than Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko has just witnessed two of his worst nightmares in Ukraine, first as protests overthrew a fellow Putin client and then as Russia seized Ukrainian territory “to protect Russia’s interests,” establishing a precedent that could easily justify sending tanks to Minsk.

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Diplomatic Fallout: The European Union’s Bait-and-Switch in Ukraine

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

As has become increasingly evident, we live in a Gramscian moment of crisis, where between an old order on its deathbed and a new one not yet born, “a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.” The latest of these symptoms is on display in Ukraine, where Russia’s armed intervention highlights the waning power of the post-Cold War liberal order, even as consensus over what should replace it remains elusive.

In Ukraine Crisis, Central Asia Sees Twofold Threat

By: Joshua Kucera | Briefing

Central Asia has looked with alarm to the events in Ukraine, where massive protests led to the overthrow of a Kremlin-backed dictator and the Russian invasion of Crimea. The region’s autocrats are worried that street protests were able to oust a strongman in a fellow ex-Soviet state. At the same time, Russia's intervention has unsettled Central Asians, who see themselves as Moscow’s next potential target.

Global Insider: In East Asia, Saudi Arabia Sees Economic, Political Opportunities

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, Saudi Arabia and China signed four agreements to expand bilateral cooperation and investment. In an email interview, Naser al-Tamimi, a Middle East analyst with a focus on Middle East-Asia relations, explained the recent trajectory of Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China and with East Asia more broadly.

No Longer Invincible, Turkey’s Erdogan Plans His Next Move

By: Yigal Schleifer | Briefing

Turkey’s domestic strife—starting with the Gezi Park protests and continuing with government corruption scandals and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s public falling out with the powerful Gulen Islamic movement—has forcefully reordered previous assumptions about the trajectory of the country’s politics. With Erdogan’s failure to clear the way to becoming president, the question is what will become of him.

Strategic Horizons: How the U.S. Military Might Get Involved in a Megacity

By: Steven Metz | Column

Last week I wrote about the challenges that the future U.S. military might face if ordered to intervene in the type of sprawling, coastal megacities that are emerging around the world. Critics object that the resources to develop a force for megacities might be better spent elsewhere. But the important point is that the U.S. could find itself involved in these increasingly important places whether it wants to or not.

As Ukraine Crisis Escalates, NATO Reinforces Its Eastern Front

By: Richard Weitz | Briefing

The Ukraine crisis has presented NATO with both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is to reassure its nervous members and partners while deterring further Russian military aggression. The opportunity is that the crisis may rescue the alliance from perceived irrelevancy after the end of the Afghanistan War and against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S. military focus on East Asia and the Middle East.

World Citizen: Will Catalog of Conspiracies Save Turkey’s Erdogan?

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is about to find out whether his strategy for quelling an increasingly effective opposition will prove successful and help him secure his place of prominence in Turkey’s future. Erdogan has brandished an eye-popping catalog of conspiracy theories in response to popular protests and a growing corruption scandal. How the public reacts may end his political career.

The Realist Prism: Is America Prepared to Sacrifice for Crimea?

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

For U.S. policymakers, the focus now needs to be on formulating a new policy toward Russia situated within an overarching framework of U.S. interests. The U.S. must determine how great a threat Moscow’s unilateral action in Crimea poses, and in turn whether reversing it or pushing for a long-term settlement is the right course. If reversal is the goal, the question is, what costs is the U.S. prepared to pay?