Editors Note As talks in Geneva struggle to make headway on resolving the civil war in Syria, one crucial limiting factor is the absence of a major party to the war, Iran. As Carol Choksy and Jamsheed Choksy write, "Tehran’s cooperation will be vital in ensuring any Syrian deal succeeds.” The same pressures that brought Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program can be used to ensure a positive Iranian role in talks over Syria, they write. As far the nuclear talks go, however, much uncertainty remains over how they will proceed, according to Richard Weitz. He sees the possibility of an outcome that is neither success nor failure, where Iran and the international community simply extend the interim deal, "leaving Tehran in possession of de facto enrichment capabilities without explicit international acceptance.” Finally, looming behind the nuclear negotiations is the question of U.S. domestic politics, writes Nikolas Gvosdev, which may spur the Obama administration to attempt to wrap up a deal in order to have a win in hand before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Coming up on WPR: Why Iran’s influence in Iraq is overstated, the drags on Brazil’s boom and a feature issue on data in development. —Matt Peterson, Managing Editor     WPR Articles Jan. 20, 2014 - Jan. 24, 2014 Global Insider: With Spain Preoccupied, New Actors Exert Influence in EU’s Cuba Policy By: The Editors | Trend Lines In a visit to Havana this month, Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans urged the EU to improve its ties with Cuba. In an email interview, Joaquín Roy, Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration at University of Miami, director of the University of Miami European Union Center and co-director of the Miami-Florida European Union Center of Excellence, explained European Union relations with Cuba. Burkina Faso’s Compaore Needs an Exit Strategy By: Lesley Anne Warner | Briefing Despite its status as a poor, landlocked country in the midst of West Africa, Burkina Faso plays an important role in the region and for its international partners. During his 26 years in power, President Blaise Compaore has cast himself as an indispensible mediator. However, the increasing momentum of opposition to Compaore points to a need for him to find an exit strategy ahead of November 2015 elections. Afghanistan After America: Stability and Strongman Governance in Northern Afghanistan By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines Northern Afghanistan, particularly the regional capital Mazar-i-Sharif in the province of Balkh, represents something of a success story. Mazar has experienced an economic boom, in part due to its position as a trade hub. But its success also owes a great deal to an institution Westerners have been reluctant to embrace—the strongman governor. Strategic Horizons: As Insurgency Mutates, U.S. Response Must Evolve By: Steven Metz | Column Insurgency is mutating. Today, there are two major forms, each needing a different response. One is the traditional type, a legacy of colonialism, that sought control over remote or peripheral areas. The other takes place in sprawling cities rather than remote areas and is more akin to gangs than traditional insurgents. These two types of insurgency now co-exist, and the U.S. response must evolve in kind. U.S. Walks Delicate Line on LGBT Issues Abroad By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues have become an increasingly prominent aspect of the U.S. political conversation, and this has been true of the foreign policy debate as well, especially as the United States considers the best response to anti-gay laws passed abroad.

More Abe’s Visit Demonstrates Japan’s Multilayered Approach to Africa By: Jonathan Berkshire Miller | Briefing Last week, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe finished a three-country tour of Africa aiming to create new opportunities for Japanese companies, promising dramatically bigger loans and pledging to bolster Tokyo’s role in the maintenance of peace and security. While it would be an exaggeration to say that Abe is pivoting to Africa, Japan has charted out a multilayered approach to engaging the continent. Diplomatic Fallout: International Crisis Diplomacy on the Defensive, Part II By: Richard Gowan | Column Optimists argue that the international community is better at dealing with mass atrocities than it was two decades ago during the Rwandan genocide. Yet recently the consensus in favor of international engagement has delivered underwhelming results. International actors have developed numerous tools to deter such violence since 1994. They are increasingly frustrated by the failure of these tools to work. Congress Resists Pentagon Drone Oversight as U.S. and Partners Continue Targeted Killings By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines As U.S. forces draw down in Afghanistan, the United States continues to carry out targeted killings against suspected terrorist leaders in several theaters—including through the use of armed drones—and to enhance the ability of partner nations to carry out lethal operations. But U.S. drone strikes can kill innocent civilians along with the intended targets, generating backlash abroad and concerns domestically. Global Insights: As Interim Nuclear Deal With Iran Takes Effect, Uncertainty Remains By: Richard Weitz | Column The implementation agreement for the interim nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 in November entered into effect yesterday. Although the text of the implementation deal remains confidential, the White House released a summary that, while answering some important questions, still leaves uncertain whether the deal will achieve its main purpose of transitioning to a more comprehensive agreement. USAID Promotes Public-Private Partnerships in High-Risk Markets By: Shehzad H. Qazi | Briefing U.S. development aid has long been funded by the public sector. But USAID has recently begun a number of programs financed by private capital. This approach raises interesting questions about why public-private partnerships are becoming more prevalent, how the U.S. is encouraging private investment in risky markets and the prospects for such partnerships to become a dominant trend in U.S. development policy. Iran's Participation Crucial to Resolving Syrian Crisis By: Carol Choksy, Jamsheed K. Choksy | Briefing Washington has been reluctant to include Tehran in Syria peace talks, fearing that doing so could enhance Iran’s standing. But much has changed in the 19 months since the initial Syria accord was negotiated without Iran. Attempts at a comprehensive resolution of the Syrian civil war cannot hope to succeed unless the major Syrian actors and the most influential nations linked to those Syrians are represented. Poland Struggles to Live Up to Ambitious Goals in EU, Post-Soviet Sphere By: Matteo Tacconi | Briefing The Polish “economic miracle” of recent years has raised authorities’ foreign policy ambitions as Warsaw’s relations with Washington have slipped. Warsaw has pursued a two-pronged strategy, seeking to exert influence in the post-Soviet space and increase Poland’s political weight in the EU. But the failure of Poland’s agenda in Ukraine and elsewhere casts doubt on Poland’s ability to live up to its ambitions. World Citizen: The World’s Most Interesting Presidential Race Starts in Israel By: Frida Ghitis | Column The job comes with some nice perks and mostly symbolic duties, but the position, president of Israel, carries enormous prestige, potentially a great deal of influence and, ultimately, a guaranteed spot in the history books. The race to replace Shimon Peres as head of state is getting off to a star-studded start. Already the collection of possible candidates looks like a menagerie of overachievers. Global Insider: IMF Reform Falls Victim to Polarized Budget Battles in Washington By: The Editors | Trend Lines In a budget agreement reached this month, the U.S. Congress failed to approve a package of reforms for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the fund’s members agreed to four years ago. In an email interview, Daniel McDowell, assistant professor of political science in the Maxwell School at Syracuse University, explained the state of efforts to reform the IMF. Rise of Self-Defense Groups Highlights Mexico's State-Level Security Challenges By: Jerónimo Mohar, Benoît Gomis | Briefing Residents of Mexico’s Michoacan state must feel a grim sense of deja vu as the federal government once again intervenes in the state to enforce security. Notwithstanding the parallels to the beginning of Former President Felipe Calderon’s “war on drugs” seven years ago, a new variable has come into play: the rise of “self-defense groups,” adding a new layer of complexity in the state and in Mexico as a whole. The Realist Prism: As U.S. Midterms Approach, Expect Mixed Messages on Foreign Policy By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column With a little less than three years left in President Barack Obama’s term in office, the latest political parlor game is to try and discern the shape of the final tranche of his administration. Will the last third of his tenure be defined by proposing major new initiatives, or will it be characterized by cautious efforts to secure a more modest legacy? And how much will the president focus on foreign affairs?

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decoration:none;">State Department Moves to Take Bigger Role in U.S. Climate Policy By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines Climate change legislation has had a tough time in the United States. But Secretary of State John Kerry, based partially on a conviction that climate change is causing more intense storms like the recent typhoon in the Philippines, still sees the conclusion of a successful global climate pact in 2015 with full U.S. participation as an important, legacy-defining goal. Ending ETA: Defeat or a Peace Process? By: Teresa Whitfield | Briefing The long process toward the dissolution of ETA, the violent Basque separatist organization, took a surprising turn in the past month with its prisoners’ de facto recognition of the legitimacy of the French and Spanish governments. Although short of the repentance that many wished to hear, their pledge to pursue their release by legal means and the group’s goals through the political system is big—and good—news. Afghanistan After America: Western Afghanistan’s Vulnerable Security Oasis By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines The ethnically mixed western region of Afghanistan has been notable for the stability and wealth of its most important province, Herat, and its capital city of the same name, which owe much of their prosperity to customs revenue. Herat’s growth and integration with the rest of the country, however, are potentially threatened by instability and poor infrastructure in the surrounding provinces. Global Insider: Israel’s Voluntary Return Efforts for Asylum-Seekers Find Little Success By: The Editors | Trend Lines This month, thousands of African migrants to Israel, many seeking asylum, marched in Tel Aviv to demand more rights and protections from the Israeli government. In an email interview, Dov Waxman, associate professor of political science at Baruch College and at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, as well as the co-director of the Middle East Center for Peace, Culture and Development at Northeastern University, explained Israel’s immigration policy. The Realist Prism: For Iran, Nukes No Longer Key to Deterring U.S. By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column After years of deadlocked negotiations and inflexibility, Iran has recently become much more accommodating about making concessions regarding its nuclear program. This newfound willingness is not entirely the result of personnel changes in the form of new President Hassan Rouhani. Shifts in the international environment are also partly responsible for the apparent decision by Iran’s leaders to change tack. More Diplomatic Fallout: International Crisis Diplomacy on the Defensive, Part I By: Richard Gowan | Column Since the conflict in South Sudan escalated in December, well-meaning governments and U.N. officials have repeatedly argued that only a political solution can end the fighting. But from Sri Lanka to Darfur and Syria, Western powers and the U.N. appear willing—or obliged—to put aside bargaining with leaders who have ignored this advice, tragically affirming the continued political value of brute force. For Economy and Security, India Must Prioritize Fight Against Illicit Trade By: Karl Lallerstedt | Briefing One strategic challenge that critically threatens both India’s economic development and its national security is illicit trade, which deprives India’s government of tax revenues, Indian business of profits and the Indian populace of legitimate jobs, in addition to its many other costs. It is clearly in India's long-term interests to prioritize the fight against illicit trade, but New Delhi has not done so. China Playing a Long Game in Polar Governance By: Anne-Marie Brady | Briefing China’s Antarctic program has made global headlines amid the dramatic rescue of a trapped Russian research vessel involving a Chinese icebreaker that then got trapped itself. The episode brought positive PR for a country whose growing polar interests arouse anxiety among traditional players in the Arctic and Antarctic, where China is consolidating its interests and seeking a greater voice in governance. Global Insider: Frustration, Political Jockeying Behind Mass Resignations in Burkina Faso By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last week, 75 officials resigned from Burkina Faso’s ruling party, citing the disappearance of democracy under President Blaise Compaore. In an email interview, Michael Keating, a lecturer in the Department of Conflict Resolution, Human Security and Global Governance and director of operations at the Center for Peace, Democracy and Development at the McCormack Graduate School at University of Massachusetts, Boston, explained the state of political opposition in Burkina Faso. Global Insights: As U.S. Draws Down, India Raises Security Profile in Afghanistan By: Richard Weitz | Column Last month, during Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s visit to India, the two governments announced they would deepen their defense and security ties. Although Indian officials declined to fill Karzai’s entire shopping list, Afghan-Indian military cooperation will likely increase now that the U.S., which has generally discouraged a major Indian security role in Afghanistan, is losing influence in Kabul. Politics as Usual: The Battle for the Turkish Judiciary By: Michael Koplow | Feature The current fight between the Turkish prime minister and Turkey’s judiciary may seem surprising, given that the Turkish judicial system appears to contain all the hallmarks of a rule of law regime. Nevertheless, it suffers from a fundamental flaw: It has often behaved as a political actor and is widely perceived to be overly politicized. While courts are never completely insulated from politics, the perception in Turkey is that the judiciary pursues political aims and is far from being impartial. Putin's Judicial Vertical: Russian Rule of Law Takes a Step Backward By: William Pomeranz, Matthew Rojansky | Feature The end of 2013 witnessed a flurry of legal activity in the Russian Federation, including a major amnesty and the unexpected pardon of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Other steps, however, have raised concerns about Russia’s commitment to rule of law principles and whether the country remains on a path to creating a modern legal infrastructure. The consequences for failing to do so remain high, both for Russia’s ability to attract foreign investment and for its overall standing in world affairs. Struggling for Justice: China's Courts and the Challenge of Reform By: Jerome A. Cohen | Feature As China strives to consolidate its return to prominence on the world stage, courts are essential for the attainment of all its major goals. Yet China's judicial system is in the midst of a crucial struggle to determine its nature, role and power. China's new leaders have announced a series of new measures designed to increase the legitimacy of the judicial process and garner greater public support for it. These reforms face serious challenges, but the attempt to chart a new course deserves attention. Strategic Horizons: To Make Its Case, U.S. Army Must Look to the Future By: Steven Metz | Column Given budget pressures and disillusionment with the outcome of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, critics contend that the U.S. does not need a large, active-duty Army but should instead rely on other nations and reserve forces. As land power advocates and the Army’s leaders push back, debate rages. This is not simply a quibble over budget figures. Rather, it reflects a monumental strategic decision. ASEAN Single Aviation Market Would Be Major Step Toward Better Integration By: Jennifer Meszaros | Briefing ASEAN’s Single Aviation Market (SAM) seeks to liberalize air services under a unified air transport market by 2015. SAM is a logical next step for a region where relaxation of market restrictions, low tariffs and a combined total trade of more than $200 billion has already attracted foreign investors. But the move toward integration is slow, as ASEAN members have yet to treat themselves as a common market. World Citizen: The Lessons of War That Forged Israel’s Ariel Sharon By: Frida Ghitis | Column Before he became the leader of his country, Ariel Sharon, the recently deceased former Israeli prime minister, spent most of his life as a military man. The lessons of war shaped Sharon as a political actor, gradually chiseling the profile of a political leader with such strong and unexpected views that he managed to antagonize even his closest allies and surprisingly satisfy some of his harshest critics. As Britain Turns to Asia, Questions of Sustainability, Balance Linger By: Tim Summers | Briefing Recent U.K. engagement with Asia has seen high-level visits to Japan and China, a growing role for London in the internationalization of China’s currency, and enhanced commercial diplomacy. This is in the context of a U.K. foreign policy that remains global in outlook. However, London’s continued focus on the Middle East means that Asia’s relative importance in U.K. policy remains uncertain.