WPR Articles 09 Dec 2013 - 13 Dec 2013 Editors Note A rare bright spot emerged this week in the tense diplomacy of the Middle East in the form of a new water-sharing agreement among Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. With demand for freshwater growing steadily, the deal, Russell Sticklor explains, "promises important progress at a critical juncture.” Frida Ghitis also sees reasons for optimism in Egypt, where a new draft constitution, while flawed in certain crucial respects, offers a step forward for individual rights and freedoms. And amid these changes, writes Steven Metz, what was once unthinkable is slowly becoming a reality as the U.S. considers disengaging from the region. Coming soon to WPR: assessing France’s role in Africa, a look at the new dynamics of Iran’s relationship with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and in-depth articles on the state of the art of peacemaking. —Matt Peterson, Managing Editor Diplomatic Fallout: For France’s Hollande, African Interventions a Strategic Failure By: Richard Gowan | Column Is there a lonelier or more poorly understood warrior than French President Francois Hollande? Last week, as French troops prepared to intervene in the Central African Republic, there were plaudits from abroad for the domestically unpopular president. It would be wrong to begrudge Hollande his dose of praise. But it is wrong to suggest that he has been decisive or visionary in handling African crises. Chilly U.S.-Venezuela Ties Persist as Maduro Perseveres in Municipal Vote By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s party won roughly half of the votes in municipal elections held this weekend, strengthening the government’s position as it confronts an ongoing economic crisis. Maduro has vowed to continue the socialist project of his predecessor Hugo Chavez, and has been taking steps to counter the “economic war” he claims is being waged on Venezuela by foreign-backed business interests. Global Insider: ‘Middle-Power Cooperation’ Between Australia and South Korea Set to Grow By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Jeffrey Robertson, a visiting professor at the Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management, explained the state South Korea-Australia bilateral ties. New Trilateral Water-Sharing Deal a Rare Cause for Optimism in the Middle East By: Russell Sticklor | Briefing Jordanian, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators struck a deal earlier this week outlining new water-sharing arrangements for this perpetually water-stressed region. Facilitated by the World Bank, the deal promises to bolster water supply to Jordan, the West Bank and southern Israel while enhancing cross-border water sharing through new desalination plant construction, increased water transfers and new water sales arrangements. The Realist Prism: For U.S., Keeping Ukraine on Side No Longer a Vital Interest By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column A concerted effort to portray the protests in Ukraine as a pivotal moment pitting the Euro-Atlantic community against a resurgent Russia has not gained much traction among the American public or in the Obama administration. Washington apparently has little interest in matching the Russian “bid” for Ukraine, despite dire warnings that a failure to do so will imperil the security of the Western world.

More Japan Boosts Efforts to Curb China's Counterfeiting By: Karl Lallerstedt | Briefing The Chinese declaration of an air defense zone in the East China Sea is not the only area of China’s activity that concerns Tokyo. There are also concerns about the nature of the economic competition Japan is being subjected to. Japan’s economy depends heavily on intellectual property rights, and China accounts for a far higher proportion of economic losses to Japan from counterfeiting than any other country. Global Insights: Hagel Visit Shows Limits of U.S. Agenda in Afghanistan, Pakistan By: Richard Weitz | Column During his recent visit to South Asia, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel focused on securing a formal agreement to keep U.S. forces in Afghanistan beyond 2014 and an informal accord to continue drone strikes in Pakistan. These are both important topics, but U.S. policymakers need to devote more attention to other issues that could have an even greater impact on U.S. interests in the region in coming years. OPEC Faces Perfect Storm of Global Supply Glut, Internal Tensions By: Thijs Van de Graaf | Trend Lines Last week, OPEC decided to leave its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day, the target that it set two years ago, a decision that seems to reflect OPEC’s satisfaction with current high oil prices. Yet, in reality, OPEC’s inaction masks its members’ inability to agree on a strategy to avert the threat of a widely anticipated supply glut in world oil markets as internal tensions build. As Yanukovych Digs In, European Vision Still Dominates in Ukraine By: Steven Pifer | Briefing Since 1991, analysts have often described Ukraine as divided between a pro-European west and a pro-Russian east. Elections and opinion polls have reflected that divide, though with some gradual blurring of the line. Yet in the current political crisis, pro-European sentiment grips the western and central parts of Ukraine, while no alternate pro-Russian narrative has appeared with any force or passion. Strategic Horizons: U.S. Will Draw Back From Middle East, But How Far? By: Steven Metz | Column The Middle East has played such a pivotal role in U.S. national security recently that it’s easy to forget it wasn’t until the mid-1970s that the region became a top-tier American security concern. Now, in a shift of potentially historic impact, that may be coming to an end. The coming years will certainly bring a lower U.S. profile in the Middle East and may see something approaching disengagement. In Context: Mexico Moves to Reform Its Energy Sector By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines A bill to reform Mexico’s energy sector passed both houses of Mexico’s Congress this week, bringing President Enrique Pena Nieto’s promised overhaul of the state-owned oil and gas industry a big step closer to becoming reality. World Citizen: In Egypt, Mixed Constitution Enshrines Military While Advancing Freedoms By: Frida Ghitis | Column One year ago, Egyptian liberals took the streets after an Islamist-dominated constitutional assembly approved a draft that many viewed as laying the path to an Islamist state. One year later, with the Islamists out of power and the military firmly in control, a new panel has approved major changes to that constitution. The document offers a window into the long-term aspirations of those holding power today. As Chile Votes for President, Diversification Key to Addressing Energy Crunch By: Jeremy Martin | Briefing As Chile heads into second-round voting Sunday, the country is seeking a more diverse energy policy. More specifically, security, efficiency and sustainability are the clear-cut issues facing policymakers and energy sector participants alike. With the country’s economic growth in recent years, the need to address the problem has become ever more urgent for Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s likely next president.

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