WPR Articles 20 May 2013 - 24 May 2013

For Europe in Afghanistan, Long-term Commitment Despite Lack of Interests

By: Valentina Pasquali | Briefing

Germany has announced it will provide up to 800 troops to the NATO training contingent that will replace the ISAF mission in Afghanistan after 2014, a notable move in Europe’s current climate of budgetary austerity. With few bilateral interests at play, Berlin’s decision, and similar indications from Italy, raises the question of what the continental European powers’ long-term strategic goals are in Afghanistan.

Myanmar’s Thein Sein Delivers Political Reform, Lags in Economic Liberalization

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

The visit by President Thein Sein of Myanmar to the White House on Monday underlines how far the Southeast Asian country has come. But while the progress in Myanmar is real, the country’s leaders have so far delivered more political than economic reforms.

Strategic Horizons: Endgame Scenarios for the Syrian Conflict

By: Steven Metz | Column

The Syrian civil war continues because those who could stop it believe that time is on their side and things will eventually turn in their favor, or else that ending the fighting is not worth the costs. Sadly the conflict is not yet ripe for resolution, and the innocent pay the price. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the war with certainty, but it is possible to sketch feasible scenarios.

Japan’s North Korea Policy Yields Smart Politics, Questionable Diplomacy

By: Jeffrey W. Hornung | Briefing

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is known for being firm toward Pyongyang and demonstrating solidarity with Washington. But a secretive visit to Pyongyang last week by one of his top advisers, widely interpreted as a display of flexibility toward North Korea, is inconsistent with Abe’s past firmness. While Abe is playing smart domestic politics, his efforts may carry unwanted diplomatic consequences.

Global Insider: At Least 10 Years Needed to Build Up Libya’s Army and Police

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, William Lawrence, director of International Crisis Group’s North Africa project, explained the landscape of Libya’s armed groups and the international role in Libya’s security sector reform.

More Diplomatic Fallout: The Next Phase of U.N. Engagement in Somalia By: Megan Gleason-Roberts, Alischa Kugel | Column In late-April, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tapped Nicholas Kay, a former British ambassador and Africa director at the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as his new special representative in Somalia. When Kay takes up his duties as the head of the new U.N. Assistance Mission in Somalia on June 3, he will be presented with risks and opportunities at a time of renewed hope and momentum for Somalia. Taiwan-Philippines Incident Illustrates Need for Dispute-Resolution Mechanism By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines The Philippine Coast Guard opened fire on a Taiwanese fishing vessel two weeks ago, killing a Taiwanese fisherman and provoking a diplomatic deadlock between the Philippines and Taiwan in a period of growing tensions over disputed waters in the region. Global Insights: Syria Crisis Overshadows Broader Turkey-U.S. Tensions By: Richard Weitz | Column At their White House summit last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama jointly called for greater international efforts to end the Syrian civil war, though the two leaders reportedly differ on how directly the West should become involved. Meanwhile, the preoccupation with Syria has obscured unresolved sources of tension between the two countries on other issues. Shadow of Jihadi Safe Haven Hangs Over Tunisia, Algeria By: Sherelle Jacobs | Briefing A group of jihadi militants with links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has infiltrated western Tunisia, with security implications for both Tunisia and Algeria. To combat them, Tunisia’s military needs better equipment, which the government has promised to deliver. But it is not clear whether Tunis will pursue the deeper military and economic reforms needed to quell the terrorist threat in the long term. Global Insider: Political Tensions Don't Derail India-China Trade Ties By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Arvind Panagariya, a professor of economics and Indian political economy at Columbia University, explained the recent trajectory of India-China trade relations. Security Vacuum Threatens Central African Republic’s Political Transition By: Alex Thurston | Briefing Since late-March, when the rebel coalition Seleka took power in the Central African Republic (CAR), security has broken down in the country. U.N. Representative Margaret Vogt recently stated that CAR has entered “a state of anarchy." With Seleka struggling to turn military triumph into durable rule, CAR’s neighbors will likely see an increase in the circulation of refugees, fighters and weapons. With Bouteflika Still Sidelined, Algeria’s Challenges Mount By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines While Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika may return to Algeria following treatment in France for a mini-stroke he suffered in late-April, his health makes it unlikely that he will be able to stand for re-election in Algeria’s presidential ballot set for next year. Whoever does eventually succeed him will face a host of economic, societal, governance and security challenges. World Citizen: In Qusair, Assad and Hezbollah Show Their Hand By: Frida Ghitis | Column Early Sunday morning, the war in Syria took a new turn when forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and large numbers of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon launched a major offensive to retake the Syrian town of Qusair. Retaking the city is key not only to Assad’s strategy, but also to his regional allies. It stands at the intersection of fundamental objectives shared by Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah. Amid Mixed Signals From Hollande, France and Germany Drift Apart By: Irene Finel-Honigman | Briefing Given French President Francois Hollande’s promise to renegotiate German Chancellor Angela Merkel's hard-fought European Union budgetary pact and to counter austerity measures, his May 2012 election made a deterioration in the French-German partnership all but inevitable. Despite his campaign rhetoric, however, Hollande’s first year in office has been marked by conflicting policy messages. The Realist Prism: To Draw Down War on Terror, Obama Must Turn Rhetoric Into Action By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column In his speech yesterday at the National Defense University, President Barack Obama offered a comprehensive vision of how he plans to wind down the global war on terrorism. The speech suggested that the U.S. would no longer have a "one size fits all" approach to terrorist organizations. If borne out, this shift could result in a more nimble, agile footing in the fight against terrorist groups that target the U.S.

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