WPR Articles 28 May 2013 - 31 May 2013

Despite Similarities, Bolivia's Morales Breaks the ALBA Mold

By: Christopher Sabatini | Briefing

Bolivian President Evo Morales’ successful push to clear the way for a potential third term has reinforced the fears of many observers who, ever since he was first elected president in December 2005, have lumped him in with the populist, anti-democratic leaders in Venezuela, Ecuador and Nicaragua. But in important economic and political ways, Bolivia was and remains different from its ALBA allies.

Global Insights: Need for New Thinking in Russia-NATO Relations

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The May 23 Moscow European Security Conference, which gathered government representatives and analysts to discuss the range of issues confronting policymakers for European security today, highlighted the many areas of divergence between Russia and the West on matters of European and global security. But it also offered some opportunities for renewed engagement and dialogue on these often divisive issues.

Honduras Gang Truce, Modeled on El Salvador’s, Unlikely to See the Same Success

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

In Honduras, the Central American country with the highest homicide rate in the world, the two largest and most dangerous street gangs declared a truce Tuesday. The agreement between MS-13 and Barrio 18 is modeled after one that took effect last year between the same gangs in El Salvador.

Mongolia’s Presidential Election Could Be Pivotal for Balancing Future Growth

By: Jonathan Berkshire Miller | Briefing

On June 26, Mongolians will go to the polls to elect their next president, with incumbent Tsakhia Elbegdorj predicted to return to office with a renewed mandate. The election's outcome will have significant international implications. Mongolia's continued growth remains uncertain due to an overdependence on the global commodity market and investor concerns about rampant corruption and pegged contracts.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia Diverge in Battle to Shape Changing Middle East

By: Brian Katulis | Briefing

Since the start of the Middle East uprisings, the region has slipped into uncertainty, with a battle for political influence and legitimacy stretching across state borders. Two rich countries in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have operated with different and sometimes divergent strategies for trying to shape the political transitions in Egypt and impact violent struggles in places like Syria.

More Finishing the Job: Security Sector Reform After the Arab Spring By: Omar Ashour | Feature The Arab Uprisings were principally sparked by the brutality of the security sector in almost every single country where they occurred. Now, those security services must be fixed. Following the removal of dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, security sector reform became an immediate objective of both revolutionary and reformist forces, regardless of ideological or political affiliation. How this reform process plays out will be decisive in determining the future of Arab democracy. Global Insider: For Iceland’s Public, EU Accession Remains a Divisive Issue By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Maximilian Conrad, an assistant professor of European politics at the University of Iceland, discussed Iceland’s recent decision to suspend European Union accession talks. In the Crossfire: Police Reform in Central America By: Mark Ungar | Feature The countries of Central America’s northern triangle—Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras—have become a center for illegal narcotics transshipment. The combination of weak institutions, political instability and corrupt police in these countries makes the region an ideal base for traffickers. And with astronomical crime rates, the national police are too overwhelmed to take on the cartels. To address this mounting citizen security crisis, these three countries have adopted a range of responses. The Forgotten Force: Police-Building in Iraq and Afghanistan By: Walter C. Ladwig III | Feature Developing competent local police forces is an absolute imperative to stabilize a fragile state. Yet, the U.S. government frequently seems to honor this principle in the breach. The U.S. experience with police-building in Afghanistan and Iraq makes it clear that the development of effective indigenous police forces is too important a task to leave to the uncoordinated half-measures of the interagency process or the well-intentioned improvisation of troops in the field. After Obama Meeting, Turkey's Erdogan Recalibrates Syria Policy By: Yigal Schleifer | Briefing Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s mid-May Washington visit played out differently than many observers expected, with the U.S. president getting the Turkish prime minister to publicly support an international conference next month on solving the conflict, which Erdogan had previously dismissed. Erdogan’s changed tone is an indication of a wider recalibration of Turkey’s Syria policy. Strategic Horizons: Don't Count on U.S. Security Partnership With Nigeria By: Steven Metz | Column Theoretically the U.S. could help Nigeria in its battle against Boko Haram. Nigeria's economic, political and military potential make it a prime candidate for a close partnership, and there are unconfirmed reports of small deployments of U.S. military advisers to the country. Chances are, though, this won't amount to much, as the obstacles to an expanded partnership outweigh the need for it at this point. World Citizen: Virtue Versus Economic Policy in the Netherlands By: Frida Ghitis | Column When news of economic troubles in Europe started emerging in 2009, the prevailing narrative in the Netherlands blamed the troubles in Greece on a lack of discipline, understandable considering the temptations of leisure along the sunny Mediterranean coast. Today, however, Europe’s economic woes have reached the North Sea shores, sending a chill through one of the most disciplined economies of the EU. The Realist Prism: Before Arming Syrian Rebels, U.S. Must Weigh Consequences By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column The termination of the EU embargo on providing military equipment to Syria's rebels, combined with renewed efforts in the U.S. Congress to goad the Obama administration into providing arms to the anti-Assad fighters, suggests that the West will soon become more directly involved in the Syrian civil war. If so, they ought to proceed with their eyes fully open, having weighed all the possible consequences.

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