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How to Avoid a U.S.-China Cold War
Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard sealed a bilateral defense deal in November 2011, under which 2500 U.S. marines will be stationed in Australia, Obama announced a new strategic defense guidance in January 2012. The latter document claims that China’s rise has important implications on U.S. economic and strategic interests, and noted that countries such as China and Iran continue to pursue asymmetric means of countering U.S. power projection capabilities. Many have taken these developments to mean that competition between the United States and China amounts to a new 'Cold War.'How do the characteristics of Sino–U.S. relations affect trends in their bilateral ties? Where will strategic competition between China and the United States lead? The U.S. pivot towards the Asia-Pacific represents a strategic readjustment, and competition between China and the United States will consequently grow accordingly. This, however, does not meet the criteria for a Cold War-style scanerio.
Instead, the relationship between the United States and China can best be characterized as “superficial friends,” which is epitomized by a character–strategy duality. The concept of superficial friendship implies a state of bilateral relations as well as a strategy. The state to which superficial friendship refers is one where neither of the two parties regards the other as a strategic partner, but where both claim a strategic partnership. For example, China and the United States see one another as trade partners, yet in the face of a trade imbalance, the United States presses China to appreciate the Renminbi solely to enhance U.S. economic interests like employment, thus exacerbating China’s difficulties vis-a`-vis exports.
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