War with China

James Dobbins

Version of record first published: 01 Aug 2012 - http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2012.709384

Abstract

China could become the most powerful adversary the United States has ever faced. How might a war with China begin, how might it proceed, how might it end, and how might it be prevented?

China could become the most powerful adversary the United States has ever faced. How might a war with China begin, how might it proceed, how might it end, and how might it be prevented?

Since the disappearance of the Soviet Union, China has become America's default adversary, the power against which the United States measures itself militarily, at least when there is not a more proximate enemy in sight. Before 9/11, George W. Bush identified China as America's prime threat, but once the ‘war on terrorism’ was launched China became a strategic partner. Now, in 2012, with America's war in Iraq over, the one in Afghanistan winding down and al-Qaeda on the ropes, President Barack Obama has announced yet another national-security pivot to Asia, with China again the main preoccupation.

It is certainly true that China could become the most powerful adversary the United States has ever faced. Over the next 20 years, China's gross domestic product (GDP) and defence budget could exceed those of the United States. If it chose, China could therefore become a more capable opponent than either the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany at their peak, neither of which ever approached America's economic might. This raises a number of important questions: how might a war with China begin, how might it proceed, how might it end, and how might it be prevented?