Costs of a Eurozone Breakup

WORLD ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE

Costs of a Eurozone Breakup

Roundtable members Peter Tchir and Jonathan Carmel on what a 'Grexit' would mean for the eurozone and what the costs would be for Germany.

In separate reports, World Economic Roundtable members Peter Tchir and Jonathan Carmel explain why a 'Grexit' could lead to the unraveling of the eurozone and what exposure Germany has to peripheral Europe through private banks and, increasingly, as a result of Target2 balances involving the Bundesbank and the European Central Bank.  According to Carmel's research, Germany must bail out the weaker countries of Europe now or suffer tremendous losses on €1 trillion that those countries will owe them by the end of 2012. 10-year German CDS could widen significantly from current levels, while 10-year Bund yields could go negative. Why a Grexit Would Make Lehman Look Like Child's Play by Peter Tchir, TF Market Advisors Achtung Baby: Germany Is Riskier than You Think by Jonathan Carmel, Carmel Asset Management

The World Economic Roundtable seeks to "remap" the world economy by exploring the changing patterns of global trade, investment, and employment following the Great Recession. The Roundtable brings together thought leaders from business, finance, public policy, and academia in regular meetings to discuss critical questions affecting the global economy. For more on the Economic Growth Program, click here.

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