CBO's Assessment of ARRA's Impact on Q3 Output and Employment

CBO's Assessment of ARRA's Impact on Q3 Output and Employment
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser, December 1, 2009
The continued deterioration of the economy through the first few months after the passage of ARRA was not due to the stimulus package; rather underlying conditions had deteriorated, and the economy would have been in a worse state in the absence of the package.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/cbos_assessment.html