Globalist Bookshelf > Global Diplomacy
History Strikes Back
By Hubert Védrine | Tuesday, November 18, 2008 Though the global West has long been in control of the world market, new powers are emerging as leaders of the market. Former French Foreign Minister, Hubert Védrine argues that Europe can still stay on top — by joining forces with the United States as world powers.
For some time after its victory in the cold war, the West thought that it alone was in charge of world affairs, the sole arbiter of good and evil. Now, more than 20 years later, it must understand that it no longer has a monopoly on history or power.
New powers
Having promoted universal values and the rules of the free market, other world powers — which the West Neither competition nor politics nor history is over. does not control and which have not forgotten the Western domination of the past 500 years — are on the rise.
Aided by the very globalization desired by the West, they are emerging — or reemerging — with the intention of redesigning the world in their own way and free market economics will continue to spread but not necessarily under Western leadership in a way.
Democracy and free market economics will continue to spread, but not necessarily under Western leadership — or in a way that will guarantee Western supremacy.
Losing their grip?
Neither competition nor politics nor history is over. On the contrary, the tectonic plates of geopolitics, geoeconomics, and geoecology have again begun to shift, and these enormous changes will not take place without significant disruption.
We are entering an era of serious tensions. Westerners are going to lose, or perhaps have already lost, their monopoly. But they have not lost either their power or their influence, which could be considerable if put to use in the right way.
A new approach
If the United States is unable to get beyond the For their part, if the Europeans do not overcome their naiveté, they will be mere spectators of an unstable multipolar world. hubris that led it astray over the past few years, it will create further disappointments and catastrophes, for itself and the West as a whole.
With the 2008 presidential elections, the Americans must seriously analyze the causes of the failures of the Bush Administration in the Middle East, including the deep conceptual reasons for this foreseeable fiasco.
And the new administration will have to take a very different approach. For their part, if the Europeans do not overcome their naiveté, they will be mere spectators of an unstable multipolar world being created without them.
Coming together
On the other hand, if they do face up to realities, they could by acting together become a major world power and true partner of the United States.
A coherent and determined Europe would help compensate for the alarming vacuity of the notion of an "international community."
From slogan to reality
Such a Europe would take account of the geopolitical We are entering an era of serious tensions. Westerners are going to lose, or perhaps have already lost, their monopoly. balance of power and adapt its strategy accordingly.
It could, for example, help promote global awareness of the environmental time bomb we are facing, which it has so far recognized more clearly than the United States.
It could thus help transform the environmentally destructive economy of today into the ecological economy we need and make "sustainable development" a real policy as opposed to a slogan.
Showing solidarity
Such a Europe could put the concept of solidarity among the world's 6.5 billion people on a solid footing since, whatever our divisions, we face the same threats.
These ideas should be at the heart of the notion of "regulation" of untamed globalization and of the "global governance" so often praised in speeches. Europe is well placed to promote such thinking just as it can help rehabilitate the role of states and governments.
This feature is adapted from HISTORY STRIKES BACK by Hubert Vedrine. Copyright 2008 Brookings Institution Press. Reprinted with permission of the publisher.
Copyright © 2000-2008 by The Globalist. Reproduction of content on this site without The Globalist's written permission is strictly prohibited. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy
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Globalist Bookshelf > Global Diplomacy
The West in Disarray
By Hubert Védrine | Monday, November 17, 2008
The West's attempt to spread democracy in other countries may have only ostracized it from the rest of the world. Former Foreign Minister of France Hubert Védrine argues that a long-term vision and a will to collaborate are the keys to bringing the West into the next era of international relations.
In a post-American, or "nonpolar" world, the strategic choice the West must make is whether to share power with emerging states.
Losing legitimacy
The long-term future of Western values and interests (which go together, after all) will depend in large part on the way in which it handles this issue.
One option would be to oppose as strongly as we
We need a smarter policy that takes advantage of the potential for democracy in every society, even the most stagnant and archaic ones.
can the emerging states' challenge to Western supremacy — to ostracize anyone who defies the West, talking only to those we like, categorizing everyone as good or evil, and using sanctions, boycotts, military force or democratization to impose the will of the "international community."
That option has been the approach of the Bush Administration, which thought it could reshape the "greater Middle East." But it failed to do so and thus only accelerated the West's loss of legitimacy in the eyes of more than five billion non-Westerners, even if the United States continues to impress and attract because of its power and wealth.
Naming enemies
To reach its goals, the administration sought to maintain an atmosphere of permanent threat, vulnerability and fear. It made the mistake of giving the terrorists the satisfaction of being named threat number one.
It imposed a Manichean vision of the world by hammering home its simplistic vision. It sought to maintain total superiority in all aspects of political and military power.
Learning from failure
For a while, that approach worked all too well on American
The West is going to have to accept that it can no longer impose the regimes it wants any more than it can artificially create nations from the outside.
public opinion, while Europeans were always more skeptical. But that approach deprived the West of an extraordinary opportunity to spread its influence.
Alternative Western policies toward the rest of the world are possible. That is true not only with regard to the Muslim world but also with regard to the emerging powers, as many Americans themselves have begun to recognize.
In a general sense, the United States must learn the lessons of the failure to impose democracy by force from the outside in countries where democracy has no roots and where relations with the West remain colored by colonialism.
Dreams of democracies
The idea of remaking the Middle East by promoting democracy was beautiful. It even seduced many Democrats to the point that some of them still today dream of creating a League of Democracies independent of the UN.
But against whom and to do what? I'm afraid the West is going to have to accept that it can no longer impose the regimes it wants any more than it can artificially create nations from the outside.
Making long-term plans
Does this mean just resigning ourselves to autocracies and
In a post-American, or "nonpolar" world, the strategic choice the West must make is whether to share power with emerging states.
burying our democratic aspirations? No. But the promotion of democracy needs to be put on a longer-term footing.
Instead of simplistic and often brutal policies that are based on force and ignore local realities, we need a smarter policy that takes advantage of the potential for democracy in every society, even the most stagnant and archaic ones.
Such a policy could take the form of a partnership for political and economic modernization with those in the region who are ready to move in that direction. There will be more of them than many realize, especially if an Israeli-Palestinian agreement is reached.
A new challenge
What I'm proposing here is a turn away from ideology and a return to politics. In 1945, the United States led in the creation of a world order that American leaders had been thinking about since the start of the war, drawing on the lessons of the League of Nations.
The challenge today is even greater in that the outcome will not be negotiated by two or three victors, but by a large number of countries — established powers, emerging or reemerging powers, regional groupings and ordinary member states of the United Nations that are themselves influenced by the many so-called new actors in international relations.
Some of the same
There will not be a single San Francisco conference nor a single
The United States must learn the lessons of the failure to impose democracy by force from the outside in countries where democracy has no roots.
Woods or Havana conference, nor a single special conference of the United Nations.
Rather there will be multiple negotiations and skirmishes stretched out over time. There will be specialized meetings and general meetings, with ups and downs and breakthroughs and set backs, all influenced by economic and environmental factors.
Alliances will be formed and broken, and there will be an infinite number of disagreements among Western powers, just as there will be among the emerging powers.
Coming together
All this will play out at the UN, the IMF, the WTO, the G8 and elsewhere, including in the area of economic competition, taking place in the shadow of potential environmental catastrophe.
The West must agree on a realistic and strategic vision of these coming changes to avoid disagreements between the United States and Europe that would weaken both.
The next administration
The United States has nothing to
The idea of remaking the Middle East by promoting democracy seduced many to the point that some still dream of creating a League of Democracies.
gain from divisions within Europe, which could lead to splits between Washington and some European states on how to deal with particular emerging powers.
After eight distressing years, the arrival of a new U.S. administration is a good time to rethink transatlantic relations.
Europeans are fascinated by — and expect much of — Barack Obama, whose election has had, and will continue to have, an impact all around the world.
High stakes
Americans and Europeans will have to forge a new strategic alliance based on smart realpolitik.
Europeans must urgently prepare for such a transition, and Americans need to think about what they could bring to the table. The stakes are enormous.
This feature is adapted from HISTORY STRIKES BACK by Hubert Vedrine. Copyright 2008 Brookings Institution Press. Reprinted with permission of the publisher.
Copyright © 2000-2008 by The Globalist. Reproduction of content on this site without The Globalist's written permission is strictly prohibited. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy
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