Europeans see Moscow as security threat By James Blitz in London

Europeans see Moscow as security threat

By James Blitz in London

The Financial Times

September 22 2008

The Russian military's recent incursion into Georgia means that many more west Europeans now regard Russia as a greater threat to global stability than states such as Iran, Iraq and North Korea, according to a survey for the Financial Times.

Despite this, a clear majority of people in western Europe remain firmly opposed to their governments spending more on defence and diverting resources away from public health and social programmes.

Indeed, the Harris opinion poll for the Financial Times, conducted after the conflict between Russia and Georgia last month, indicates the citizens of three west European states would strongly oppose their national armies defending east European nations from a Russian attack.

Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are all legally obliged to defend their fellow Nato members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania under the Atlantic alliance's Article 5 commitment to mutual defence.

However, in Germany, Italy and Spain, more people say they would oppose the notion of their national troops rushing to defend the Baltic states than would support the idea.

In Germany, as many as 50 per cent of people say they would oppose national troops going to the defence of the three states, compared with only 26 per cent who say they would support it. Only in Britain and France do more people support the idea of their armies defending the Baltic states than oppose it.

The contrast between Europeans' rising fears of Russia and their unwillingness to support any action to meet the challenge posed by Moscow militarily is the most striking feature of the survey. The difficulty for governments contemplating an increase in defence spending is that growing public anxiety about Russia is somehow doing little to change the debate.

Harris poll charts

Even in the UK, which has the most fraught bilateral relationship with Russia of any west European state, 49 per cent of people oppose extra spending on the military as a result of Russia's actions.

Overall, the events in Georgia have pushed Russia up the table of countries that are perceived by west Europeans to endanger world peace.

Over the past year, Harris has asked Europeans on a monthly basis which states they regard as the greatest threat to global stability. Russia has repeatedly ranked well behind China, the US, Iran and Iraq. As recently as August, before Russia's incursion into Georgia, only four per cent of west Europeans deemed Russia as the greatest threat to world stability. But the September poll shows 17 per cent of respondents putting Russia top of the list, ahead of Iran on 14 per cent and not far behind China on 21 per cent.

The number of US respondents who say Russia is the greatest threat has also soared, from two per cent in early August to 13 per cent this month.

Harris's poll, meanwhile, shows a sharp divergence between Europeans and Americans over which of the US presidential candidates are seen as better protecting Europe's interests with regard to Russia.

On this measure, Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, is overwhelmingly favoured in each of the five European countries surveyed. Only in the US is John McCain seen as being better able to protect Europe's interests – gaining 41 per cent of votes to Mr Obama's 37.

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