By Sunny Lee Korea Times Correspondent BEIJING ―

By Sunny Lee
Korea Times Correspondent

BEIJING ― The view that North Korea is likely to collapse after the all-powerful Kim Jong-il dies is a reflection of wishful thinking by some countries, rather than a reflection of North Korean reality, Chinese scholars argue.

Although Kim is a very important figure in North Korea ― probably the most important ― nonetheless the scholars point out that an internal bloody power struggle is unlikely in the post-Kim era by military generals because the ``ruling class'' in North Korea is well aware that if they destroy each other, it will eventually destroy the world's most isolated nation.

This consciousness of ``shared destiny,'' they argue, will unite the seasoned North Korean cadre to ensure the stability of North Korea in the post-Kim era.

Amid news reports of Kim's critical illness, speculation and theorizing has been in full swing to the obvious ``what's next?''

That is what is going to happen to North Korea in case the ``Dear Leader'' dies. Pundits in South Korea, America and Japan, for example, have been pushing predictions on the ``imminent death'' of, or a permanently impaired Kim, who may not be in full charge of running the country. With that, they have been paying attention to likely scenarios in the post-Kim era. Many of them paint a gloomy picture. Namely, North Korea is a country run by one dictator and his death would therefore result in a drastic change in the world's most isolated state, even its collapse.

All these views are a construct of wishful thinking, rather than a conclusion based on intimate knowledge of the reclusive country, Chinese scholars point out.

They beg to differ, first of all, from their foreign colleagues in that they don't want the collapse of North Korea. ``We want North Korea to be stable,'' said Cui Zhiying, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Office under the Asia-Pacific Research Centre of Tongji University in Shanghai.

``China wants stability in North Korea because it also relates to the stability of its northeast region,'' Cui said, alluding to concerns there that a deluge of refugees may spill into the region that borders North Korea after Pyongyang's collapse, destabilizing the area.

Residents who are Chinese nationals but ethnically Korean also heavily populate Northeast China, which includes Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang. China is concerned that once a flood of North Korean refugees migrates to this region, they bring them with them Korean identity and assimilate local Chinese residents who speak the same language, scholars in South Korea and America argue. Ethnic uprisings are a very sensitive issue in China, which has 55 ethnic minorities besides the Han majority.

Cui, however, views the scenario of an army of refugees spreading into the northeast as unlikely. ``I don't think that will be the case because North Korea has the ability to manage the crisis,'' he said apparently alluding to the recent reports of Kim's alleged illness.

``The recent Western reports are not reliable. North Korea has the ability," Cui said without elaborating.

Zhu Feng, a well-known Chinese security expert and a former fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, said even if Kim dies, North Korea was unlikely to implode in a bloody power struggle among military generals, as some observers predict. ``The possibility of North Korea's collapse is slim. The North Korean leadership is run by a group of ruling cadre. If North Korea collapses, they also collapse. If they engage in an in-fight, they know they will destroy themselves,'' he said.

``So, the people in the ruling class in North Korea are very clear. They share the same interests. They will work hard to preserve their interests,'' Zhu said, hinting that the post-Kim era will be governed by a group of experienced military personnel who will ensure stability.

Zhu's view differs from that of some experts in South Korea and the United States who anticipate a successor to Kim to show up, most likely from among Kim's three sons. However, since Kim has not designated an heir and since he is in a critical condition, they predict a massive power struggle may ensue if he dies without doing this publicly.

Song Chengyu, a professor of Korean Studies at Peking University, downplays such a view. ``Western reports make a big fuss about Kim. They don't know what's happening internally in North Korea. Years ago, there was turmoil in Rumania after a dictator had died there. The same thing won't happen in North Korea. The West and East are different,'' he said.

Some observers predict that if Kim dies and North Korea falls into a state of ``unclaimed ownership,'' China may send in troops and absorb the collapsed country.

Zhu dismissed such an idea. ``In the case of Kim's death, China won't act alone. China won't intervene in North Korea,'' he said, adding ``China will work within the framework of a multinational system such as the United Nations or six-party Talks.

``Some South Korean media have actually said that if Kim dies, China would go in and absorb North Korea. That's very strange. I've been reading Korean newspapers on the Internet and I don't think they get it right. Also their idea that China regards North Korea as a security `buffer zone' is no longer valid either.''

Song said, ``There are different possibilities in the post-Kim North Korea. But China will act in accordance with multi-party agreements, including the peace mandates of the United Nations. Kim is an important factor, but he is not all there is to North Korea. There are also the military and political figures who participate in running the country. One person does not represent North Korea. And they have been preparing for this leadership change for many years. The West is wrong. They don't understand North Korea. There are internal elements in North Korea that are capable of managing the country even without Kim.''

China Wants Reunification of Koreas

Zhu acknowledges that some Chinese scholars have concerns about a reunified Korea. Once reunited, the view goes, the new Korea, more powerful and confident, will reclaim old territory that once belonged to it. Much of this land is currently Chinese territory.

But all the Chinese scholars The Korea Times approached, said China wants the reunification of the two Koreas.

``China has always supported a peaceful reunification of the two Koreas,'' said Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University. The influential scholar, who is widely dubbed as ``personal advisor to President Hu Jintao,'' dismissed the view of some South Korean scholars that China wants the status quo on the Korean peninsula.

Song also said, ``China wants the peaceful unification of Korea because it's good for China as well. This is the view of the majority of Chinese scholars. It also wants it to be done without outside forces,'' adding ``It is also not likely that North Korea would embark on a war with South Korea after Kim dies.''

Zhu put it this way. ``Will a unified Korea turn against China? I personally don't think that will be the case. In terms of reunification, if Koreans can resolve their issue on their own, others don't have to intervene. But South Korean newspapers said China would intervene.''

As for unification, Zhu said, ``This is your business, not China's. Actually, it's the conservatives in South Korea that don't favor unification because of the expected financial burden.''

Chinese scholars think that North Korea doesn't believe it's the right time for opening up to the outside world because doing so would destabilize the country. ``North Korea is definitely facing pressure to open up. At present, they don't want this. It is not just Kim's idea, but also one shared by the other rulers. But eventually, they will want to open up. They have a so-called 2012 Opening-up Project. So, we have reason to believe that North Korea will eventually head toward opening up,'' Zhu said.

He does not believe that the departure of Kim from the North Korean scene will benefit the opening up scenario.

Song observed, ``Externally, North Korea faces a challenge that threatens the very existence of the country.'' When asked whether the `challenge' indicated the United States, he said, ``Yes, that's America,'' adding ``Internally, North Korea has to manage its reforms, including feeding its people. We often forget that North Korea's land size is larger than that of South Korea and North Korea has less people. If it's managed well, it can sustain the livelihood of its people.'' Zhu disagrees, predicting North Korea will have to rely on foreign aid to feed its people.

Chinese scholars all point out that the reunification of the two Koreas is not something that is imminent though. ``The former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung said it would take about 20 to 30 years,'' Cui said, adding North Korea's biggest challenge for now, besides Kim's health, is to develop its economy and raise the living standards of the people. ``That's its homework.''