Middle East Commentary = July, 2008

The New Arab Diplomacy: Not With the U.S. and Not Against the U.S. Marina Ottawa, Mohammed Herzallah Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - July, 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20305&prog=zgp&proj=zme
Arab countries are undertaking diplomatic initiatives that clearly contradict U.S. policy, because they no longer trust the U.S. capacity to contend with escalating regional crises. Even Arab countries traditionally aligned with the United States are no longer willing to follow Washington's lead on policies toward Iran, Lebanon, or Hamas....

Palestinian Presidential Elections Nathan Brown Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - July, 2008
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=20298&prog=zgp&proj=zme
A presidential election in Palestine will not take place until both Fatah and Hamas reach consensus--and Israel permits it--resulting in a deadlock with no clear path toward political reconciliation.

The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians' Central Role International Crisis Group - July, 2008 After decades during which they saw their influence consistently decline, Lebanon's Christians are in a position to once again play a decisive political role. The May 2008 Doha agreement, coming in the wake of Hizbollah's takeover of West Beirut, provides the Christian community with the opportunity to regain an important place on the political map and to advance demands that have long been ignored.

Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon International Crisis Group - July, 2008
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5563&l=1
And while exact numbers are uncertain, the scale of the problem is not in dispute: today, Iraq's refugee crisis -- with some two and a half million outside the country and the same number internally displaced -- ranks as the world's second in terms of numbers, preceded only by Afghanistan and ahead of Sudan. While the security situation in Iraq shows progress, the refugee crisis will endure for some time and could worsen if that progress proves fleeting.

The Iraq War: Key Trends and Developments Anthony Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies - July, 2008
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4558/
The briefing surveys sectarian and ethnic trends, progress in political accommodation, developments in the fighting, and trends in casualties. Maps show the steady decline in Al Qa'ida capabilities since mid-2007 and the steady improvement in security in most provinces, but also the broader problems in sectarian and ethnic tensions and conflicts.

Still No Clear Path for Integrating 'Sons of Iraq' into Iraqi Government Michael Hanna World Politics Review - July, 2008
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=2412
As a tactical matter, the decisions of commanders on the ground and the results they have achieved in pacifying Anbar province and other mixed areas through tactical alliance and cooperation with tribal forces and former insurgents have been unimpeachable. However, the current US-brokered order remains untenable in the long term.

Preparing the Battlefield Seymour Hersh The New Yorker - July, 2008
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh/?yrail
Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources.

Embedded in Iraq Michael Massing New York Review of Books - July, 2008
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21617
On the application form, I had written that I wanted to visit a typical Baghdad neighborhood to see how the surge was working and to get a sense of what more had to be done before the US could begin to draw down its forces in any significant number. Iran: The Threat Thomas Powers New York Review of Books - July, 2008 At a moment of serious challenge, battered by two wars, ballooning debt, and a faltering economy, the United States appears to have lost its capacity to think clearly. Consider what passes for national discussion on the matter of Iran.