The Race Goes On by Yu Wanli

Beijing Review

UPDATED: May-6-2008 NO. 19 MAY 8, 2008

http://www.bjreview.com/quotes/txt/2008-05/06/content_114625.htm#

The Race Goes On

Drama in the U.S. presidential election drags on and will ultimately put China-U.S. relations to the test

By YU WANLI

It is being dubbed as one of the most effusive presidential primaries in a long time and one that will surely go down in political chronicles. U.S. Democratic presidential nominees Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack H. Obama have gone toe-to-toe for four grueling months since the primaries began at the Iowa caucus on January 3, with no quarter asked or given. The most recent results of the Pennsylvania primary on April 23, however, again failed to provide the knock out punch for either camp and left both candidates with much work still to do.

Although Clinton won an unprecedented victory by taking 55 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Obama, she still lagged behind in terms of total delegate votes. Delegates will vote at the Democratic National Convention in August to decide the party's presidential nominee. The victory in Pennsylvania cannot reverse Clinton's downward spiral but has kept her in the race for the time being. "Some counted me out and said drop out," Clinton told cheering supporters. "But the American people don't quit. And they deserve a president who doesn't quit either." An article published by the Associated Press on the same day said: "Hillary Rodham Clinton survived yet another day. There will be little time for celebration, though. Time and money are running out."

In fact, Obama's failure in Pennsylvania was expected. The white wage earners' state is his Achilles' heal. It should be noted that Obama's campaign has been plagued with setbacks since his March 4, or Super Tuesday II, defeat. He drew fire from his rival for being "elitist" because of his unguarded comments about small-town voters. The presidential hopeful reportedly said residents of small-town America cling to "guns or religion" as a way to "explain their frustrations" over job losses. Pennsylvania is one of the places that have the most small-town residents in the United States. Since the beginning of the primaries, Obama has been defeated in all states that traditionally vote in favor of the Democratic Party. Many Democrats are therefore concerned about his chances of beating Republican presidential nominee John McCain. The Pennsylvania primary was his last opportunity to prove himself. Unfortunately, he lost again with a two-digit margin, making his downfall even more obvious.

High political drama

Hopes to win the presidential election this year have been high among Democrats. Many Americans are fed up with the eight-year-long Republican administration led by President George W. Bush. They believe that their country is on the wrong track given the negative repercussions of the war in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, the scandals involving high-ranking Republican officials, the subprime mortgage crisis, the tax relief scheme that robbed the rich to benefit the poor and dim economic prospects. Democrats won a landslide victory in the 2006 midterm election, gaining majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House of Representatives had been under Republican control for 12 years. Bush's disapproval rating reached a record high of 69 percent in the latest Gallup poll. Keep in mind that his approval rating hit a record high of 90 percent after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Ironically, Bush will go down in history with both records.

Clinton and Obama are deeply embroiled in the struggle for presidential nomination and Democrats are finding that their advantages may not guarantee a White House victory. After he became the apparent Republican nominee in early March, McCain not only had enough time to collect money for his campaign but also was able to tour Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan with an air of leadership. His virtues, such as decisiveness, tenacity and honesty have won approval from an increasing number of voters. In the Democratic Party, however, the gloves have come off in the competition between Clinton and Obama.

The U.S. media publicized some sermons made by Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright. Americans were shocked when they heard the Democratic candidate's mentor yell, "No, no, no, God damn America!" and "Hillary ain't never been called a nigger." These remarks damaged the pure image Obama has fostered since his debut. His "transracial" appeal also has been suspected of being hypocrisy. Voters have reason to doubt whether Obama shares the same feelings deep in his heart. If he does not, how can he possibly have listened to Wright's sermons for the past two decades and consider him as a "spiritual guide"?

Clinton is no better than him. Shortly after she told a rally, with her signature smile, that she landed amidst sniper fire in Bosnia to promote the peace process there and in Herzegovina, the media accused her of lying by releasing a video showing that she descended from her plane safely and was greeted by a welcoming crowd. This was followed by an example that she cited in her speech to illustrate the problems in America's health care system, to in fact be false.

The Democratic Party's advantages are being lost as the soap opera of Clinton and Obama continues. Opinion surveys show that the approval rating of McCain has risen 10 percentage points from November last year, whereas the ratings of Obama and Clinton have dropped 5 percentage points respectively. Despite the fact that the Democratic Party leads the Republic Party at 54 percent to 42 percent in popular support, the gap between McCain and his two Democratic rivals is being narrowed. If the trend persists, Democrats may encounter a similar situation to 1972 when Richard Nixon defeated Democratic candidate George McGovern in all the states but one. Discontented with McGovern, many Democrats voted for Nixon, while securing their party a victory in the congressional election. This means that the Democrats voted for their party but not for its presidential candidate.

The Democrats are currently trying to think of ways to end this drawn out drama. Some proposed that Clinton and Obama join hands, which was rejected by both. Several influential public figures suggested that super delegates take cognizance of public opinion, with the intention of qualifying Obama for the presidential nomination at an early date. But big donors were quick to compose a joint letter urging them to exercise their right of "free choice" to preserve Clinton's chances. Super delegates are members of the House of Representatives and Senate, state governors, members of the Democratic National Committee and other unpledged delegates who are free to vote at the Democratic National Convention. Now that both candidates represent complex political interests, it seems that their wrangling will not be settled until the August convention.

Breaking the cycle?

For most ordinary Chinese, the U.S. presidential election is no more than a sensational "drama" presented to them by the media. But China cannot afford to view the election as an outsider, in the context of today's globalization, when China and the United States are highly interdependent.

China-U.S. relations have been affected by two cycles since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1979. The "small cycle" was exemplified by the deliberations on whether to grant China the most favored nation status before June every year in the 1990s. Since China entered the World Trade Organization and gained permanent normal trade relations with the United States in 2001, accusations against China's growing military expenditure, human rights record and trade surplus with the United States have emerged from March to June every year. This is done via the release of U.S. Department of Defense's annual report on China's military power and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's annual report to Congress.

The "large cycle" refers to the U.S. presidential election every four years. In the past three decades, almost every presidential election in the United States has led to a "China syndrome." While campaigning for presidency, opposition candidates always accuse the administration of showing weakness toward China in an attempt to cultivate their tough image. After winning the elections, the pattern follows bilateral relations plunging to a low point because of hard-line policies toward China and then recovering and climbing to a new height in the middle and late phases of presidential terms. The "large cycle" was evident in the transitions from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan in 1981, from George H. W. Bush to Bill Clinton in 1993 and from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush in 2001. Fluctuations in China-U.S. relations were avoided only when Bush senior took over the reins from Reagan in 1989, both men being Republicans.

China-U.S. relations moved into a period of stable development following the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. To date, this momentum has lasted for nearly seven years. The then U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said on ABC's This Week With George Stephanopoulos on March 15, 2004, "We've got the best relationship with China that we've had in 20 years." Chinese scholars have different interpretations of Powell's remarks and the extraordinary stability exhibited in China-U.S. relations in recent years. Those who are optimistic believe that China and the United States have moved their relationship from a cyclic one to one that is more interdependent in structure. Cautious observers say that "structural conflicts" underlying the bilateral relations have yet to be resolved. They argue that stable China-U.S. relations, which have been achieved because of America's shift in its strategic focus away from China to antiterrorism and the Middle East, are only temporary.

The author is an associate professor at the School of International Studies, Peking University


余万里 (Wanli Yu)
Associate Professor
School of International Studies
Peking University
Beijing 100871
Tel:8610-62754423
Fax:8610-62751639

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