Iran and Saudi Arabia: Detente on the Horizon?
Why it may (or may not) come to pass.
After
a year of hesitation, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani is signaling his
readiness to reach out to Tehran’s chief regional rival—Saudi Arabia.
Last week, a top official was sent to Riyadh; he was the most senior Iranian visitor to the country since Rouhani’s election in June 2013.
Despite
the mutual animus of recent years, the Saudis look to be receptive to
Tehran’s overtures. Events in the region, particularly the consolidation
of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, are undoubtedly the key
catalysts behind the timing of such a potential détente.
Whether
this all-important process of détente can be put in motion depends on a
host of factors, not least Rouhani’s ability to first muster a
consensus on the Saudi question in Tehran. Only then can the eager
Iranian president set out to alter the trajectory of relations between
the two pivotal Middle Eastern countries.
A long-overdue visit
Regime
hardliners in Tehran, driven not only by Shia Islamist ideology, but
also sheer power, have a long record of fighting to preserve the status
quo. That is true both of the domestic order as it is of Iran’s
relations with the outside world. And for this arm of the Iranian
regime, enmity toward Saudi Arabia, the bastion of Sunni Islam, has over
the years morphed into a cherished canon.
Rouhani
might finally take this bull by the horns. He has been very explicit in
recognizing Saudi Arabia as a special foreign-policy test for Tehran.
During his election campaign, he made a point of signaling out the
troubled relations with Riyadh as an untenable strategic liability for
Tehran.
And
yet in his first year in office, he failed to jumpstart relations as he
had pledged. Breaking the orthodoxy in Tehran on the Saudi question
proved a steep climb. Against this background, last week’s visit to
Riyadh by Hossein Abdollahian, a senior Iranian official, had an air of
inevitability and promise to it. The timing is perhaps the most
instructive detail.
Tehran
and Riyadh have revealed precious little about the content of the talks
between Abdollahian and Prince Saud Al Faisal, the Saudi Foreign
Minister. But the trends of the last few weeks suggest this was more
than just a token summit.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/iran-saudi-arabia-detente-the-horizon-11223
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