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Broke Afghans Will Cut Their Military — And Obama’s War Plan
- By Spencer Ackerman
- April 11, 2012
This is nothing short of removing a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s entire Afghanistan strategy. It’s an unforced error, costing over $10 billion, and completely foreseeable. In fact, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld foresaw it.
Here’s the problem. Afghanistan is an economic ward of the international community: the World Bank estimated that before the explosion in U.S. financing during the surge, fully 47 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP came from foreign aid. The annual price tag for the Afghan National Army and Police, according to a former top officer in charge of training them, is $6 billion. You foot most of that bill.
That’s for 352,000 soldiers and cops — an “end-strength” that U.S. military officials have laboriously worked to reach. They will reach it, the Pentagon expects, by the summer. And soon afterward, the Afghans will start… downsizing. According to Abdul Rahim Wardak, the Afghan defense minister who’s visiting Washington, as a “conceptual model for planning purposes,” the Afghans will cut the force to 230,000 soldiers and cops after 2014. One-third of the Afghan forces — many of whom can’t read and kill Americans — will be gone.
Consider: the Afghans are waiting until after the U.S. and its NATO allies draw down their troops and end their combat mission to cut their force. Not only will the U.S.-led coalition spend money on Afghan forces who will soon be let go, those troops will leave the rolls precisely when their chains of command will have the vast majority of responsibility for fighting the Taliban.
But this move isn’t about security. It’s about cash. A NATO official admitted as much to the New York Times: “If something is unsustainable, either you have to find the resources to sustain it or you have to reduce the size of the project.”
If that sounds like deja vu, it should. As Pentagon chief, Donald Rumsfeld fretted that the Afghan security forces could break the bank. The largest those forces totaled under his tenure: 86,000 soldiers and police. While Rumsfeld spokesman Keith Urbahn later called Danger Room field marshall Noah Shachtman a “two-bit blogger” for citing a book claiming Rumsfeld kept the Afghan security sector small, Urbahn conceded “there were concerns about the sustainability of a large force in a relatively poor nation over the long-term — concerns that remain to this day.”
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