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Thursday, June 25, 2015

King Obama, His Royal Court, and the TPP

 

King Obama, His Royal Court, and the TPP

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King Obama, His Royal Court, and the TPP


http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/06/25/king-obama-his-royal-court-and-tpp

What does China see as its strategic objectives in the East and South China Seas?

What does China see as its strategic objectives in the East and South China Seas?

23 June 2015 [Part of a Larger Report by the Lowy Institute, Australia] 
Linda Jakobson
A useful starting point to explore China’s understanding of its strategic maritime objectives is to contemplate China’s perception of possible threats to its maritime periphery. The United States is the only country in the world that can patrol and control vital shipping lanes, technically known as sea lines of communications, on which China’s continued economic growth relies. Japan, until recently, deployed a larger and stronger coast guard fleet. Vietnam and the Philippines, alongside other claimants, persist as adamantly as China in their claims to contested islands as well as the maritime rights stemming from these claims.http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/reading-chinas-maritime-objectives-indo-pacific-asia-perception-gap

CFR Update: U.S. Senate Approves Fast-Track Trade Authority

TOP OF THE AGENDA
U.S. Senate Approves Fast-Track Trade Authority
U.S. senators voted 60 to 38 on Wednesday to pass (NYT) legislation that grants President Barack Obama trade promotion authority to negotiate free trade agreements. The bill helps clear the way (BBC) for the Obama administration to move forward with negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal with twelve Pacific Rim nations responsible for 40 percent of world trade. The TPP, seen as the centerpiece of Obama's rebalance to Asia, could be the largest free trade agreement in a generation. Japan welcomed (Japan Times) Congress's passing of fast-track authority, while Philippines Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo said that the Philippines wants to join (Diplomat) the TPP.
ANALYSIS
"The administration’s goal is to get the TPP back to Congress for approval before the end of the year and before the 2016 political campaigns heat up. Because of the recent delays in Congress, officials say this is an ambitious target. Meanwhile, environmentalists, labour unions and other special-interest groups are gearing up to fight their corner," writes Shawn Donnan in the Financial Times.
"In lobbying Congress for fast track, President Obama made a persuasive case for the need to reassert U.S. leadership on trade, particularly in Asia, where China has been lining up its own trading networks. Now that pro-trade Republicans and centrist Democrats have prevailed over union-backed liberals and tea party conservatives, it's up to Obama to deliver a Trans-Pacific Partnership that leads the region in a direction that serves all of our interests," writes the Los Angeles Times.
"[China] is far less dangerous internationally than it was under Mao Zedong. Much of that political evolution has occurred because China’s leaders know that the rapid growth undergirding their rule depends on economic interdependence. Over the long run, bringing China into TPP would further the trend, hopefully strengthening those inside China who want to liberalize the economy and make the country a more responsible stakeholder in the world," writes Richard Katz in Foreign Affairs.

Heat Waves

** ENVIRONMENT
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As Temps Rise, Morgues Overflow
The death toll from a severe heatwave in southern Pakistan is edging towards 800 since Saturday, with the threat of more casualties as temperatures hit between 41 and 45°C (105.8-113 °F).

"We are launching awareness programs through radio channels and in hospitals, that people must not expose themselves to direct heat and must drink plenty of water," says Jam Mehtab Dahar, the provincial health minister of Sindh. Yet power outages have affected water supply to that city.

The heatwave comes as many in the Muslim-majority country are fasting during daylight hours to observe Ramadan, further exacerbating the situation.
Al Jazeera (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/06/pakistan-heatwave-death-toll-soars-750-150624062913997.html)

Global Health MERS Update

MERS
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Playing Catch-Up with MERS
3 years after the discovery of the severe respiratory illness MERS, there is still little known about its epidemiology, risk factors, transmission dynamics and treatment, according to an op-ed in Annals of Internal Medicine.

The virus has reemerged in the Middle East, with a rapidly growing new cluster of more than 138 cases in Korea.

It is imperative, the authors assert, for the international scientific and research communities to work collaboratively to control MERS before it spreads worldwide.
Annals of Internal Medicine (http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleID=2337282)

Related: With more MERS cases, South Korea says outbreak at crossroads—Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-health-mers-southkorea-idUSKBN0P400M20150624)

Related: South Korea reports four new MERS cases, total rises to 179—Channel News Asia (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/south-korea-reports-four/1936444.html)

Related: Samsung heir apologises for failing to stop Mers spread at group hospital—Telegraph.co.uk (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/11695027/Samsung-heir-apologises-for-failing-to-stop-Mers-spread-at-group-hospital.html)

The Jihadist Trap of Here and Now

The Jihadist Trap of Here and Now


By Scott Stewart

In recent weeks, I have found myself spending a lot of time thinking about the jihadist strategy of al Qaeda and how it compares to that of the Islamic State. Earlier this month I wrote about the possibility that the al Qaeda brand of jihadism could outlast that of the Islamic State. Last week I wrote about how ideologies are harder to kill than individuals, focusing on the impact that the death of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Nasir al-Wahayshi will have on that group and the wider global jihadist movement.
 


But beyond the impact of leaders like al-Wahayshi, there are other facets of strategy that will influence the war for the soul of jihadism. Specifically, I am talking about time and place. Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State seek to establish a global caliphate, but both differ quite starkly in how to accomplish this task and how soon it can be achieved.

Al Qaeda argues that the caliphate can only be established after the United States and its European allies have been defeated, to the extent that they can no longer interfere in Muslim lands — either because of a lack of ability or a lack of desire. The organization pursues a long war approach that emphasizes the need to attack the United States, "the far enemy," before turning the group's efforts against overthrowing local governments. The Islamic State takes the opposite tack. It has adopted a more urgent "why wait?" approach and concentrates the group's efforts to immediately take, hold and govern territory. This strategy banks on being able to ...

Read more »https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/jihadist-trap-here-and-now?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_term=article&utm_campaign=20150624&mc_cid=52b6890468&mc_eid=52511177bc

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Why the next World War will be a cyberwar first, and a shooting war second

Why the next World War will be a cyberwar first, and a shooting war second

Opinion: The US already has lost the first battles, and may not have the national will to defend itself in the inevitable global conflict to come. David Gewirtz looks at the geopolitical implications of cyberwarfare.


http://www.zdnet.com/article/the-next-world-war-will-be-a-cyberwar-first-and-a-shooting-war-a-distant-second/?tag=nl.e566&s_cid=e566&ttag=e566&ftag=TRE49e8aa0

Security researcher casually drops Adobe Reader, Windows critical vulnerability bomb

A Google Project Zero researcher has revealed the existence of 15 vulnerabilities in the software, including critical issues and one exploit which may completely bypass all system defense.

Pentagon rewrites ‘Law of War’ declaring ‘belligerent’ journalists as legitimate targets

Pentagon rewrites ‘Law of War’ declaring ‘belligerent’ journalists as legitimate targets

The Pentagon has released a book of instructions on the “law of war,” detailing acceptable ways of killing the enemy. The manual also states that journalists can be labeled “unprivileged belligerents,” an obscure term that replaced “enemy combatant.”

Three of five senators running for WH have big backing from lobbyists

Three of five senators running for WH have big backing from lobbyists



http://www.feedspot.com/?dadj=1#feed/f_65497/article/2283739330?dd=85382135

The Obama Gap Favorable demographics and a charismatic leader aren’t enough to make a majority party. A case study in electoral failure from Florida.


The Obama Gap

Favorable demographics and a charismatic leader aren’t enough to make a majority party. A case study in electoral failure from Florida.


http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122062/obama-gap-case-study-electoral-failure

Fewer Poor Uninsured After Health Law, Study Finds

Fewer Poor Uninsured After Health Law, Study Finds


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/23/us/fewer-poor-uninsured-study-finds-in-health-law.html

Insurer monitoring your heart rate? Allstate's patent makes it possible

Insurer monitoring your heart rate? Allstate's patent makes it possible


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/ct-allstate-patent-data-0618-biz-20150618-story.html#page=1

U.N. Report on Gaza Finds Evidence of War Crimes by Israel and by Palestinian Militants

U.N. Report on Gaza Finds Evidence of War Crimes by Israel and by Palestinian Militants


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/23/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-report.html?emc=edit_th_20150623&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=56747151

What if Beijing and Washington understood each other perfectly…but still clashed? China Spectator

What if Beijing and Washington understood each other perfectly…but still clashed? China Spectatorhttp://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/6/23/china/what-if-beijing-and-washington-understood-each-other-perfectlybut-still

Ebola Fears Undermined Malaria Control


Ebola Fears Undermined Malaria Control
Tens of thousands of malaria cases went untreated in Guinea last year, as Ebola fears kept people with away from clinics.

74,000 fewer people were diagnosed and offered treatment for malaria than would have been expected, infectious disease experts reported in the Lancet (http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(15)00061-4/supplemental) . In some hard-hit areas, the numbers of people seeking treatment at outpatient clinics dropped by up to 42%, while people seeking care for suspected malaria fell by 69%, according to the systematic survey.

The study, led by Mateusz Plucinski, noted that the early symptoms of malaria can mimic Ebola, but untreated malaria cases ultimately increase the overburdened health system—pointing to the need to keep malaria control efforts on track during an Ebola epidemic.
The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/24/thousands-of-guinea-malaria-cases-go-untreated-amid-ebola-fears)


Related: Ebola reappears in Sierra Leone's capital after several weeks without new cases – Deutsche Welle (http://www.dw.com/en/ebola-reappears-in-sierra-leones-capital-after-several-weeks-without-new-cases/a-18537448)

‘Six Jews sitting in the White House discussing the Palestinian state’



‘Six Jews sitting in the White House discussing the Palestinian state’

By Philip Weiss

"Six Jews sitting in the White House, three Israelis and three American Jews, discussing the Palestinian state. It happens all the time. Very often the only non Jewish person in the room was the vice president or the president." Michael Oren counts Jews.

Read in browser »http://mondoweiss.net/2015/06/sitting-discussing-palestinian?utm_source=Mondoweiss+List&utm_campaign=f908bc6d6f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b86bace129-f908bc6d6f-398529985

Why doesn't Iran trust the US?


Why doesn't Iran trust the US?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/iran-security-us-npt-nuclear-iaea-oil-hostages-war.html

POLL: Iranian Public Opinion on Nukes, the U.S., Politics

http://www.lobelog.com/poll-iranian-public-opinion-on-nukes-the-u-s-politics/#more-29782

POLL: Iranian Public Opinion on Nukes, the U.S., Politics

by Jim Lobe 
A major new poll of Iranian public opinion with important and fascinating results was released here and in Tehran Tuesday and deserves much more attention than it is likely to get (at least in the United States). It’s too extensive, and we at Lobelog have been inundated with too many contributions at the moment, to do the survey justice here, so you will find below a “Summary of Findings.” The summary is interesting in itself, but the longer narrative, as well as the top-line data, is well worth reading for those who want to get a more tangible sense of what people in Iran are thinking about the pending deal and its possible political and economic consequences, as well as other issues that make up the public debate there.

The poll, which was based on telephone interviews with over 1,000 respondents between May 12 and May 28, was conducted by the University of Tehran’s Center for Public Opinion Research and Iran Poll, an independent, Toronto-based polling group, working with the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland (CISSM), which has worked with the University of Tehran on a number of past surveys of Iranian opinion. Of the total number of interviews, about 15% were conducted from Toronto; the rest from within Iran. The data collected found no remarkable variation in results. Also notable was the fact that CISSM conducted an analysis to see what proportion of the sample systematically provided responses that were in line with the stated positions of the Iranian government. That analysis found that only 9% of respondents provided answers that were fully consistent with the government’s positions; 91% provided at least one response that was directly at odds with positions taken by the state-owned news media.
As you will see in the results, the survey found strong support for a nuclear deal, but that support appears to be contingent on the (mistaken) understanding that the U.S. will lift all sanctions as part of the deal, not just those related to Iran’s nuclear activities, and that economic relief will come relatively quickly. Thus, while 57% of respondents expressed support for a deal under which Iran would substantially limit its program along the lines indicated by the Lausanne agreement, 63% of respondents assume that all U.S. sanctions would eventually be lifted, while only 23% believe that only some sanctions would be eliminated. Fifty-one percent said that unless the U.S. agrees to remove all of its sanctions, Iran should not agree to a deal. Forty-five percent said Tehran should still be prepared to make a deal that removes some U.S. sanctions and all U.N. and E.U. sanctions.http://www.lobelog.com/poll-iranian-public-opinion-on-nukes-the-u-s-politics/#more-29782