[Salon] The China–Gulf axis is reshaping renewable energy in the Global South - Guest Post

[Salon] The China–Gulf axis is reshaping renewable energy in the Global South - The China–Gulf axis is reshaping renewable energy in the Global South Safa Joudeh 6/23/26 The United Arab Emirates and China are jointly delivering utility-scale wind and solar projects, with the former providing diplomatic access and financial firepower and the latter delivering the technology and construction. In late 2025, the UAE-based company Global South Utilities launched 50-megawatt solar projects in the Central African Republic and Madagascar with Chinese firms supplying core technology. In early 2026, UAE state-owned renewable energy giant Masdar signed an agreement to build and operate the 300-megawatt Guzar Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project in Uzbekistan, again using Chinese photovoltaic modules and battery storage systems. From Argentina to Costa Rica and Chile, Masdar is looking to replicate this model through partnerships with Latin American state-run energy projects, with China serving as the critical enabler anchoring supply chains, co-financing deals and deploying infrastructure at scale. This pattern of China–UAE cooperation is likely to accelerate as global energy markets remain volatile following the US–Israeli war on Iran. Governments across the Global South are seeking to diversify into renewable energy sources, creating new market opportunities for emerging players. While this pattern first emerged due to energy disruptions in the wake of the pandemic, increased volatility in global energy markets in the wake of the US–Israeli war on Iran promises to further accelerate this trend The China–UAE renewable energy axis is more than a commercial partnership. It is a convergence of state-capitalist models that is reshaping energy transitions in the Global South. By jointly expanding their global energy engagements, China and the UAE are systematically extending their strategic and commercial footprints in global energy markets, and in doing so ushering in an increasingly multipolar global energy order. Fossil fuels still supply nearly 60 per cent of global electricity generation, with nuclear accounting for 9 per cent and renewables around one third. But the balance is beginning to shift, as renewables now drive nearly three-quarters of the year-on-year growth in electricity generation — even as fossil-fuel output continues to rise. The drivers are largely economic. Hybrid solar and wind systems combined with battery storage can now deliver electricity at costs competitive with coal and gas. With financing and infrastructure support, green transitions are not only viable but financially rational. Geopolitical shocks have strengthened this shift, beginning with the disruption to global oil and gas markets following international sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 80 per cent of crude oil and 90 per cent of liquefied natural gas bound for Asian markets, has triggered a severe oil supply shock. Policy responses have been contradictory. Some governments have sought to ensure fossil fuel accessibility by ramping up coal output and reinstating energy subsidies. But the crisis has also accelerated a longer-term reorientation. India is fast-tracking its wind and solar pipelines alongside emergency coal measures, while Indonesia has ordered 100 gigawatts of solar capacity and is targeting full vehicle electrification. The Philippines has also fast-tracked 1.5 gigawatts of renewable projects to secure domestic power delivery. Against this backdrop, Chinese and Gulf companies, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are positioned to supply renewable energy infrastructure. As the world’s largest green technology producer, China already holds a structural advantage. It controls 80–90 per cent of global solar photovoltaic manufacturing capacity while Chinese firms account for 78 per centof the global wind turbine market. Chinese firms are also dominant in lithium-ion battery production and the processing of rare earth elements and critical minerals. A decade of state-backed investment has driven solar photovoltaic and battery production costs down by 90 per cent, eroding the market share of Western companies like Vestas and Siemens and making Chinese firms dominant global suppliers of reliable, low-cost energy technologies. But rising trade barriers in the West and parts of Asia, along with geopolitical tensions, have curtailed Chinese firms’ role as developers. China is responding by pivoting from developer to enabler, partnering with Gulf entities like Masdar, AMEA Power and Saudi Arabia’s Acwa to finance and develop projects that deploy Chinese technology. The logic of the alliance is straightforward. Gulf sovereign wealth-backed developers collaborate with Chinese suppliers and contractors to construct renewable energy facilities. Gulf companies originate, design and manage projects, using diplomatic relationships to win concessions and secure financing. Chinese entities remain involved as suppliers and engineering, procurement and construction contractors. As structural demand surges in markets where the China–Gulf axis is active, these actors are positioned as the most competitive bidders for tenders across Asia, Africa and Latin America. Masdar’s state backing gives it an exceptionally low cost of capital, enabling it to bid the lowest electricity tariffs seen in any emerging market and win government tenders across Asia, including in Uzbekistan and Indonesia. It has also set a record low solar tariff in Africa through a joint venture in Cote d’Ivoire. Masdar relies on Chinese suppliers and contractors to win competitive tenders while bypassing Western manufacturers. The result is deeper entrenchment of Chinese technology and supply chains across Global South energy infrastructure. The China–Gulf axis is reshaping who builds and finances renewable energy in the Global South. More importantly, it is also influencing where projects are built, on what political terms and within whose geostrategic orbit countries access and govern their energy future. The International Energy Agency projects global renewable electricity capacity will expand by thousands of gigawatts by 2030, with global state-backed utilities positioned to dominate this landscape. The emerging risk is that the energy transition, conceived as an ecological project, is being consolidated into a new model of capital accumulation and infrastructure dependency, with a new set of state-backed green utility managers at its centre. Safa Joudeh is Postdoctoral Researcher at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter. The research for this article was supported by Carnegie Corporation New York, Mapping Connections Project, University of Exeter. --