[Salon] Trump tosses a Hail Mary pass with the Abraham Accords - ArabDigest.org Guest Post

Trump tosses a Hail Mary pass with the Abraham Accords Summary: as uncertainty escalates over just what Donald Trump is hoping to achieve with an Iran peace deal his efforts to bring more Muslim nations into the Abraham Accords fold has already backfired badly. Donald Trump the deal-maker in chief played a surprise card last week-end calling on Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Türkiye, Egypt and Qatar to join the Abraham Accords, his signature achievement and arguably the sole foreign policy success from his first term in office. Unquestionably the 2020 deal that saw the UAE and Bahrain, shortly followed by Sudan and Morocco and then in 2025 Kazakhstan recognising the state of Israel has moved the Middle East needle in a direction no other US president had achieved. Why just at this moment Trump has pushed six other nations to join is curious to say the least particularly given that Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994 had already recognised Israel. As ever with the president foreign policy is decided in the heat of the moment. Writing on his Truth Social account in language that suggests the president is increasingly detached from reality, he called for “mandatory (acceptance) that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords.” Doing so will create “a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM, even during this time of Conflict and War.” As evidence, the president claimed that those countries already in the Abraham Accords had benefitted greatly. Now, it can be argued that the UAE - with its already close ties with Israel before signing on - and Morocco have seen economic windfalls. Bahrain not so much. And Sudan, where the UAE is backing the Rapid Support Forces (who stand accused of genocide in Darfur) in a vicious civil war, has nothing to show other than massive civilian casualties and the worst refugee crisis in the world. As for Kazakhstan it is probably a little early to announce its winnings in the AA sweepstakes. In a further surreal flight Trump announced that all six “would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords.” After all, once the peace treaty with Iran is done they would be party to a deal not of the century but one that would “bring true Power, Strength, and Peace to the Middle East for the first time in 5,000 years.” And bringing in Iran would mean…well let the president say what it would mean: “Wow, now that would be something special!” Grassroots opposition: public sentiment in Tehran starkly contrasts with Washington’s “Deal of the Century” aspirations, demonstrating why regional analysts view the inclusion of Iran in the Accords as entirely detached from reality. Lindsey Graham Trump’s cheerleader in chief in the Senate called the president’s salvo “simply brilliant.” And the senator informed those whom Trump had summoned to join that he “expects our Arab allies to embrace this….Focusing on this task as failure is not an option.” Setting aside for the moment the arrogance - and the blatant racism - inherent in the idea that Arabs should without question accept the diktats emerging from Washington what is Donald Trump playing at? Maged Mandour in yesterday’s podcast provides a thoughtful answer to that question: I cannot imagine a scenario where, for example, the Saudis would sign on, considering how the US and the Israelis dragged them into a war that they did not want and that is really hurting them. But it highlights something that we've been seeing over the past few years and it's not just limited to Trump. It is how the United States is behaving like a revisionist power. It is effectively working to transform the region outside of the architecture that it itself had built in a way that is clearly placing Israeli goals, security and strategy ahead of the goals of (Arab) allies. Mandour describes what he calls a revisionist axis that sees the UAE throwing in its lot - albeit cautiously and privately - with the Americans and the Israelis. Given the growing tension between Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed the positioning of the Emiratis may in the coming weeks and months fall more into the public domain. As ever though MbZ will see which way the winds are blowing. He well understands that Tehran still holds the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz and the kinetic message that Iran sent by striking the UAE harder than it hit Israel when the war was hot has not been lost on him. The Emiratis understand they remain highly vulnerable should the ceasefire be ruptured. Meanwhile the Qataris, the Turks, the Pakistanis and the Saudis have all roundly rejected the Trump demand. And in doing so the call for a two-state solution as embodied in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 has been made that much louder. Undeterred Benjamin Netanyahu continues his wars. On Tuesday at least 31 people were killed in strikes in southern Lebanon with the Israelis claiming to have hit Hezbollah installations, despite reports of many civilians being killed or injured. And the ethnic cleansing of towns and villages continues with forced evacuations causing thousands to flee in panic. Iran, which has made the cessation of IDF attacks in Lebanon a condition of any peace deal, accused Washington of a “gross violation” of the ceasefire after US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz which the Pentagon claimed had struck missile sites and mine laying boats in what it called defensive strikes. For Netanyahu - with a broad swathe of Israelis continuing to back military might over diplomatic negotiations - continuing the wars on several fronts will keep paying dividends in the run-up to an anticipated election in the autumn. The political landscape facing Trump is altogether different. Though he has displayed contempt for Congress and the Senate, routinely bypassing them with late night Truth Social orders and launching the Iran war with not so much as a nod in their direction, Republicans are facing a mid-term wipeout. More and more are speaking out as petrol prices at the pump remain high heading into the summer driving season. The MAGA movement is fracturing; Trump is facing pressure from the hawks who want to ‘finish the job’ and the America Firsters who see the president’s leap into the Iran conflict as a betrayal of his promise to keep the US out of forever foreign wars. Trump likes to brag that the American people love him but another slice or reality he will sidestep are his approval ratings and they are abysmal. The call to join the Abraham Accords may be an attempt to puff up his credentials but it has more than a whiff of the desperate about it. Hoping to embellish a first term foreign policy success by bringing more Muslim nations into the Accords means little to the average American and even less to those who voted for Trump in 2024.