[Salon] Iran digs in for a long struggle - ArabDigest.org Guest Post

Iran digs in for a long struggle Summary: America's illegal and brutal war on Iran has catastrophically backfired, trapping Washington and its Gulf state allies in the Iranian mangle while the myth of US and Israeli invincibility is systematically dismantled. This is a war that is illegal, immoral and brutal, a crime of aggression and a naked violation of the United Nations Charter, launched without international sanction or the justification of self-defence. It is built on the cynical manipulation of public opinion, on nuclear smoke screens and recycled propaganda borrowed from Iraq and Libya. And it is exceptional in its brutality, from the Tomahawk missile strike that killed at least 175, almost all of them school girls, in the town of Minab in the south of Iran to the relentless bombardment that has seen the United States and Israel launch hundreds of strikes on Iran since February 28. But for all its firepower, this war represents something far more damning than a military and moral failure. It is a self-inflicted wound for the United States. Washington and Tel Aviv have catastrophically mistaken “inflicting punishment” for “strategic victory.” Thirteen days into their illegal adventure, there is no victory, no surrender, no collapsed regime. There is only a dangerous stalemate, a quagmire that promises no escape. Nowhere is this miscalculation more painfully evident than in the Gulf states. These absolute monarchies long wrapped in an American security blanket now find themselves exposed, hostages to a war they never wanted, being fought using bases on their soil, wreaking havoc on their cities. The United Arab Emirates has borne the heaviest punishment. More than 1,800 missiles and drones have targeted this tiny state, a near ceaseless rain of fire – much of it hitting Dubai – that American-supplied defences cannot fully stop. Officials frame the 93% interception rate as a “successful outcome” but the psychological shock of sustained attack has shattered something far more delicate: Dubai's carefully constructed aura of stability. Civilian infrastructure has been directly and repeatedly hit. Debris from interceptions caused a fire at the towering landmark Burj Al Arab. Direct strikes hit the Fairmont Hotel on the Palm Jumeirah. A drone attack on Dubai International Airport on March 11 wounded four labourers, the very people who built these monuments but cannot afford to flee them. A British national was arrested simply for filming the missiles. Now America and Israel's illegal war has catastrophically backfired Iran is seeking to decolonise West Asia The psychological shock has been profound. The myth of Dubai as a “safe haven,” robustly cultivated by Western influencers paid in petrodollars, has been shattered. Real estate transactions have halted, with analysts predicting price drops of 25% to 33%. An institutional investor reportedly withdrew a bid worth hundreds of millions for a logistics park in Jebel Ali after it was struck. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil once flowed, has virtually stopped. The economic model that built modern Dubai - low taxes, stability, openness - is under existential threat. Meanwhile, the human reality is one of division and desperation. Some residents stay, buoyed by influencer campaigns insisting “everything is normal.” Others flee at any cost. Private jet evacuations for a family of four can reach US$250,000. Taxi fares to Oman’s capital Muscat have jumped from a few hundred dollars to over US$5,000. Banks are evacuating staff: Citi and Goldman Sachs have ordered Dubai employees to leave their offices and there are credible reports of unofficial capital controls introducing a US$100,000 limit on outbound transfers. The Gulf states import over 90% of their food, with 70% passing through the now largely blocked Strait of Hormuz. Logistics giant Kühne+Nagel warns that Dubai may have only ten days of fresh produce left. Emergency airlifts - LuLu Group has flown in 80 tonnes of meat and 80 tonnes of vegetables from India - are expensive stopgaps, not solutions. Even more alarming is the water crisis. Saudi Arabia depends on desalination for 70% of its water; a single plant provides 90% of the water for Riyadh. Kuwait relies on desalination for 90% of its needs, Oman for 76%. With a plant in Bahrain heavily damaged by the Iranians these are not abstract vulnerabilities. With the destruction of desalination plants Iran could render these states virtually uninhabitable. If the war ends soon, the UAE has options: the “Covid playbook” of stimulus packages, perhaps even the long-discussed “casino option” to lure back tourism. But if the fighting continues, the consequences are profound. A prolonged war threatens the fundamental social pact of the Gulf monarchies: very limited political rights in exchange for extreme prosperity and safety. If oil revenue and investment dry up, the contract between rulers and the ruled will crack. On March 9, US Senator Lindsey Graham issued a threat: Saudi Arabia and the GCC countries must join the fight against Iran. “If not, consequences will follow.” The response from the Gulf was instructive and unprecedented. Khalaf al-Habtoor, a billionaire close to the UAE's ruling circles, delivered a stinging rebuke - later deleted but widely understood to reflect regime sentiment. “If President Donald Trump and Senator Graham are prepared to risk their country and the lives of Americans for Israel’s interests, that is their choice,” Habtoor wrote. “As for us, we will not do the same. Anyone who hears your statements might think you're a member of the Israeli Knesset.” Saudi influencers joined the chorus, openly cursing Graham on social media. “You are a senator from South Carolina, not the President of the United States and certainly not the commander of Saudi Arabia's military. So STFU and know your place.” This exchange exposes the deep fracture separating the Gulf states from their supposed allies. They no longer trust any party to this war. They cannot rely on the US for security, seeing Washington prioritise Israeli goals over Arab stability. They fear America will declare victory and leave behind a mess. They fear Israel dragging them into the conflict. They fear Iran. But most of all the ruling families fear prolonged war will expose their own fragile foundations. Gulf rulers face an impossible choice. Join the American war and become legitimate targets for Iran's retaliation. Refuse and risk the wrath of their protector. This is the trap of client status, the inevitable cost of allowing America to be the GCC's security guarantor. As discussed by Andreas Krieg in our 5 March podcast the United States has no strategy. Its war plans have changed multiple times. It is running out of interceptor missiles. Meanwhile, Iran executes a strategic plan decades long in preparation without deviation. It has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, crashing global energy markets and sending US petrol prices climbing toward $4.00 per gallon, directly threatening Trump’s political base. The colonial strategy of “divide and conquer” has been reversed. Iran now fractures its enemies. A growing gap separates Washington and Tel Aviv based on incompatible war aims. Israel, driven by its quest for “Greater Israel” and a racist supremacist ideology wants destruction regardless of global economic fallout. The United States, bound by material interests, must calculate the cost of what could become a global economic apocalypse. Trump, characteristically, is in denial, attempting to manage a military catastrophe with the playbook of a New York con man, changing his story every few hours, hoping to talk his way out of reality. But reality cannot be talked away. Washington and Tel Aviv now face a prolonged conflict they did not prepare for, cannot sustain and cannot win. By destroying US early detection systems and radars in the first ten days, Iran has pushed the American military into a corner it had failed to anticipate. The American plan to escalate will backfire as Iran can damage the Gulf states more than the United States can defend them. Iran is prepared to endure significant punishment. It has learned from Vietnam, from Algeria, from every successful struggle against colonial domination. Though for most Iranians survival and an end to the war will suffice, the regime’s goals are grander: the complete defeat of American imperialism in West Asia, the humiliation of the Trump administration and the final decolonisation of the region. As Mohsen Rezaee a former Revolutionary Guard commander observed: “Look, the big mistake they made was that they came and designed a short-term war, but they didn’t realise this might turn into a long-term one.”