[Salon] The US election and Palestinian self-determination - ArabDigest.org guest post

The US election Summary: in what is the most consequential presidential election in modern US history will it matter to the Middle East who emerges the winner? On the surface it should be of great importance to the region whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who sits in the Oval Office come 20 January 2025. Trump, it is widely presumed, is the president Benjamin Netanyahu would see as his best bet to continue his war of attrition in Lebanon and the genocide in Gaza. But the unpredictability and indeed the increasingly disturbed rants and ramblings of the former president Netanyahu once called Israel’s best friend may give the prime minister some pause for thought. (Their relationship has been strained since the 2020 election and his congratulatory call to Joe Biden which enraged Trump though in recent months Netanyahu has been at pains to patch matters up.) Certainly, however, Netanyahu will be less than happy at the thought of a Harris presidency. As Americans go to the polls today the vice president is working hard to woo the Arab-American voters she needs, most critically in the swing state of Michigan. On Sunday at a rally in the state she acknowledged the extent of human suffering in Lebanon and Gaza: It is devastating and as president I will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza, to bring the hostages home, end the suffering in Gaza, ensure Israel is secure and ensure the Palestinian people can realise their right to dignity, freedom, security and self-determination. The call for Palestinian self-determination drew thunderous applause and with polls indicating that undecided voters are shifting to Harris a win in Michigan combined with wins in two other swing states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would in an extremely tight election give her a total of 44 electoral college votes, enough to carry her across the line and secure the presidency. Observers wonder whether it will make any difference to the Middle East whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election Trump’s view stated repeatedly is that he wants “the war to end quickly” and at a meeting in July at Mar-a -Lago he told Netanyahu he wanted it over by the time he returns to office. That 20 January deadline is one that the Israeli PM is unlikely to meet even in the event he wanted to. Meanwhile the former president has taken to musing about the potential of the Strip as a tourist destination for the ultra wealthy: “[Gaza] could be better than Monaco. It has the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best everything.” Regardless of who emerges the winner, Americans are by and large not thinking of the war in the Middle East. It is the economy and abortion rights that are determining the vote and who will become the 47th president. Others though and principally America’s friends and foes in the region and beyond will be watching with acute interest. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has threatened both Israel and the US with “a crushing response.” Should Trump lose and embark on a second insurrection to challenge the results – this one with the potential to roil not just Washington DC but the entire country in violent protest – Khamenei may be tempted to carry out his threat. That is a scenario that would deeply alarm the regional powers Saudi Arabia and the UAE given that Israel would retaliate with maximum force, something Joe Biden was able to convince them not to do in their recent response to Iran’s 1 October missile barrage. Observers will be wondering too that in the event of a Trump victory is there any reason to believe that his arbitrary deadline for an end to the fighting will be met? And should Harris prevail will her apparent commitment to Palestine self-determination prove to have any value beyond an election tactic to garner the votes she needs? Will a President Harris halt the flow of weapons to force Netanyahu’s hand? It seems unlikely and so the unimaginable suffering of the Palestinians and the war in Lebanon will continue while Israel and its enablers in the West carry on unravelling international law and the rules-based order upon which liberal democracy is founded. On 7 November geo-political analyst Jon Hoffman joins the podcast from Washington to discuss US policy in the Middle East in the wake of the results. Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Arab Digest website