[Salon] Netanyahu and Nasrallah - ArabDigest.org Guest Post

Netanyahu and Nasrallah Summary: the killing of Hassan Nasrallah was a bold tactical victory for Israel but one that begs the question what is the strategy behind it and where is Benjamin Netanyahu taking us? The assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has delivered a huge blow to the organisation, one that follows the successful pager and walkie-talkie attacks two weeks ago that left 14 dead and more than 3000 wounded. Many of the wounded were Hezbollah operatives and cadres but many too were civilians, among them children and health service workers. Those who survive have suffered catastrophic injuries blinded and with severe facial wounds and hands with fingers blown off. The infiltration of Hezbollah’s communication systems was so complete that it was only a matter of time before the Israelis located Nasrallah and killed him. The timing was in itself a statement by the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu that nothing his friends and allies could say would stop him from the next step in his war to destroy Hamas and eradicate Hezbollah. The prime minister was in New York at the UN General Assembly to deliver his message that there would be no ceasefire and no let up in the war when he gave the order to take out Nasrallah. His greatest ally America was not informed nor was the UK. Netanyahu was saying again to Washington, London and all his Western backers and weapons suppliers that their entreaties were to be ignored, if not treated with disdain or outright contempt. While it is clear that the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad have scored great tactical victories over a powerful and well-armed enemy what is the strategy at play here? Will the IDF follow up with a land invasion into the south of Lebanon in a bid not simply to drive Hezbollah north of the Litani River but to utterly and completely destroy them? To do that the Israelis would need to seize control of all of Lebanon and most particularly lay siege to and then militarily secure Beirut. To the first task that of driving Hezbollah north and creating a DMZ in order to allow for the return of the more than 60000 Israelis who fled from Hezbollah rocket attacks after the 7 October Hamas assault, that in itself will be a daunting military task. In the rugged terrain of the south Hezbollah is well dug in with tunnel systems built into mountains, rather like Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. And like the jihadists there Hezbollah can use terrain to their advantage in a guerrilla war. The IDF will prevail but with casualties in all likelihood far higher than those it has already sustained in the Gaza war. But if Netanyahu is serious about fully eradicating Hezbollah he will have to order the IDF to drive north. He will need to subdue the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut where Hezbollah is entrenched. That will necessitate urban warfare of the sort in Gaza the IDF has shown a ruthless capability at excelling at by targeting the homes of civilians, their schools, medical facilities, sewage, water and electricity infrastructure. The IDF will take casualties but of course civilian casualties will be on a scale that will run far higher than the already more than 40000 killed in Gaza. And this in a country that is on its knees economically, politically and with a population traumatised, terrified and with its health and social welfare systems already in tatters. Benjamin Netanyahu approving an airstrike on Beirut targeting Hezbollah’s main headquarters [photo credit: Israeli prime minister's office] Israel will win militarily. How could it be otherwise given the steady flow of weapons with which the US, the UK and other Western countries are providing Netanyahu as he continues his campaign to wipe out Hamas and Hezbollah and thus, in his eyes, end the threat of Iran by destroying its proxies in the Levant? His is a vainglorious and self-serving war, one that keeps him in office while catering to his extremist ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Netanyahu wants to be able to say that he has secured Israel’s future by crushing its enemies, that the massive security failures of 7 October that happened on his watch are now redeemed. On Sunday while continuing to pummel Lebanon the Israeli air force launched a heavy bombing raid on Red Sea ports held by Yemen's Huthis further widening the range and scope of the war. But Netanyahu’s is a war without a clear strategy. He has pushed Hezbollah to the brink and threatens to do the same to Iran. Should the leadership that follows Nasrallah – who though ruthless was also astute in playing a calibrated tit for tat game with Israel – panic and decide to unleash their arsenals of missiles before the IDF destroys them the result for Israel’s civilian population will be catastrophic. That in itself will provoke a rage at the Iranians, the suppliers of the arsenals. With their axis of resistance in the Levant largely destroyed Iran’s hardliners may well push through with securing nuclear weapons capability. Indeed they could be just weeks or a few months away from achieving that capability. The Saudis have said if Iran goes nuclear so will they. Israel is already nuclear armed. Three nations in the world’s most volatile region and one of them, Iran, with its stated policy to destroy Israel. This is a recipe that paves the way to a hellish landscape. And yet Netanyahu drives us all to that landscape while our Western governments call for restraint and diplomacy, whistling in the wind of a greater war that is blowing ever closer to becoming reality. Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Arab Digest website