[Salon] How Israel could lose - ArabDigest.org

How Israel could lose Summary: Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza is estranging itself from its international partners and turning it into an international pariah creating an unprecedented opportunity for a change in the balance of power not just in the Palestinian struggle but against dictators across the Arab world. It is still too early to say how Israel’s assault on Gaza is going to end but as the window of opportunity to destroy Hamas closes it looks increasingly unlikely Israel is going to be able to meet at least one of its key military objectives. As a result, when the war ends Israel could find itself in a much worse position than it was before 7 October and with few good options going forward; in other words defeated. Other than a comprehensive political solution, the only way Israel can conclusively “win” at this stage is by either the extermination of everyone in Gaza or the evacuation of the entire population into Egypt. Neither is acceptable to Israel’s Western allies. In a recent article Israel Could Lose Arab Digest member Jon Alterman reflected on the possibility the war will not end well for Israel: Most discussions about the war in Gaza assume that, in the end, Israel will win. The stakes are so high for Israel, and Israel’s edge over Hamas is so large, that any outcome other than victory is unthinkable. The only questions are in what timeframe and at what cost. As former Hamas chief Khaled Meshal made clear in his Al Arabiya interview on October 19, Hamas is working on a completely different timeframe and cost than Israel’s. Nations are not easily liberated. The Russians sacrificed 30 million people in World War II, in order to be free from Hitler’s attack. The Vietnamese sacrificed 3.5 million people until they defeated the Americans. Afghanistan sacrificed millions of martyrs to defeat the USSR and then the US. The Algerian people sacrificed six million martyrs over 130 years. The Palestinians are just like any other nation. Jon Alterman continues: Hamas sees victory not in one year or five, but from engaging with decades of struggle that increase Palestinian solidarity and increase Israel’s isolation. In this scenario, Hamas rallies a besieged population in Gaza around it in anger and helps collapse the Palestinian Authority government by ensuring Palestinians see it even more as a feckless adjunct to Israeli military authority. Meanwhile, Arab states move strongly away from normalisation, the Global South aligns strongly with the Palestinian cause, Europe recoils at the Israeli army’s excesses, and an American debate erupts over Israel, destroying the bipartisan support Israel has enjoyed here since the early 1970s. All the signs are that this is Hamas’ strategy and it is working like a clock, as in its rage and thirst for revenge against an elusive guerrilla enemy Israel is steadily estranging itself from its international partners and turning itself into an international pariah. The Palestinian resistance have created an unprecedented opportunity for a change in the balance of power not just in the struggle against Israel but across the whole Arab world [photo credit: Saraya Al Quds] Though Western governments still offer Israel their wholehearted support, the atrocities Israel is committing and which are available to view 24 hours a day for everyone on their timeline and social media feed are leading to rapid changes in public opinion, especially in the US where pro-Palestine demonstrations have swept cities and university campuses. This is putting Israel on a trajectory to becoming an uninvestable pariah like the apartheid regime in South Africa, which also had full western backing before its collapse. Of course many continue to support Israel strongly and the Israeli lobby remains extremely influential, but slowly the realisation is dawning on western public policy makers that while in the past Israel served a useful purpose for the West, it is becoming a liability, both in terms of absorbing huge sums of money and creating vast numbers of unnecessary Arab and Muslim enemies. The longer the atrocities go on, the wider these sentiments spread. At the same time the situation inside Israel itself is also difficult. Hamas continues to pepper Tel Aviv with large barrages of rockets. Israeli businesses have been buckling under the war. The country remains in a state of shock, struggling to come to terms with the impact of October 7. The security failures surrounding the attack have led to a collapse in trust both in the army and political institutions. The general public is deeply divided, with people being arrested for opposing the war and chaos in the Knesset as families of the Israeli hostages row with ministers. Large numbers of Israelis are reported to be leaving the country. As Arab Digest reported at the time, existential problems in Israel were rising even before the October 7 attack because of Netanyahu’s extreme right-wing government pushing through controversial judicial reforms which would also serve to keep Netanyahu himself out of prison. Five hundred Israeli reserve pilots had threatened to refuse to serve because of the government’s plan. As long as the war continues these divisions can be mostly papered over but if it ends without Hamas being eradicated or all the hostages being rescued, the divisions will grow deeper. Meanwhile, there is mounting anger in the Arab world about what is happening in Gaza. The most volatile situation is in the West Bank and in Jordan where more than half the 6.3 million population is of Palestinian origin. An Intifada erupting in the West Bank would be another disaster for Israel. Mahmoud Abbas has 60,000 Palestinian policemen under his command whose main job is guaranteeing Israeli security. If that control were to end, either through revolution or by his dying (he is 88) and a succession crisis then the Palestinian Authority will collapse, the people will rise up and Israel will be facing a war on a new front. Other Arab leaders are also in a difficult position. In public they must show support for Palestine but behind closed doors they back Israel and are doing whatever they can to contain growing public outrage. This is not sustainable indefinitely and Jordan and Egypt in particular are ripe for a coup or revolution. Deep down, Israelis know the current situation is exceptional and cannot last forever. Sooner or later the Arab Spring will return, current Arab regimes will be overthrown and Israel will find itself faced with hundreds of millions of hostile Arabs who are led by rulers not so ready to betray the Palestinians. This is why Arab dictators have long since operated on the principle that pleasing Israel is the best way to garner US support to remain in power and why Israel is so keen for US and European governments to back the current Arab regimes, even at the cost of western principles, interests and security. Had it not been for the Hamas attack on October 7 the situation would have continued until a full normalisation between Israel and the Arabs had been realised and the Palestinian resistance eradicated. Instead, despite the ferocity of the siege and all Hamas’ military and technological disadvantages, the way Israel has chosen to conduct the war ensures at best a Pyrrhic victory that promises to reshape the region and re-ignite the suppressed aspirations for freedom that fuelled the Arab Spring.