China Announces Five and Fifteen Year Goals

 

China Announces Five and Fifteen Year Goals 

 

From October 26-29, more than 200 Chinese leaders gathered for a top-level meeting to discuss China's future. At the end of the closed-door gathering, some of the results of the meeting were shared. The highlight of the Fifth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee was the unveiling of the blueprint for the 14th Five-Year Plan. China's Five-Year Plans lay out the leadership's vision and priorities for the next five years, in this case 2021-2025, and cover a range of issues including economics, society, policy goals, and more. The full plan will not be released until next year.

In light of the economic effects of the coronavirus, the blueprint, unlike in the past, does not specify a GDP growth target, instead aiming for “sustained and healthy economic development.” A key priority is increasing per capita GDP growth, although, again, no set numbers are given. Bloomberg economist David Qu said reaching China's growth targets “requires significant enhancement in the quality of the economy, reflected in innovation, more advanced industrial fundamentals, and a more modern economic system.”

Other goals include reducing the rural-urban wage gap, reforming property rights, and promoting “green” development. The communiqué shared after the Plenum also mentions plans to address China's aging population, strengthen its national defense, deepen reforms, and promote reunification with Taiwan, but did not go into detail. It also emphasizes the role of “Xi Jinping thought” in the Chinese Communist Party ideology.

Much of what was discussed at the Plenum has a longer time span than five years. Instead, 2035 is frequently mentioned as the year by which many of these goals should be achieved. These include reaching a per capita GDP of “moderately developed nations,” achieving “breakthroughs” in vital technologies and, most notably, becoming a “modern socialist country” by 2035.

This deadline is more than a decade ahead of the People's Republic of China's 2049 centennial, which had previously been earmarked as the major deadline for China's modern development. Analysts point out that this “Vision 2035” goal likely reflects Xi Jinping's aim to see these ambitious plans completed while he is still leading China, cementing his legacy. While Xi is no longer constrained by term limits, he will already be 82 years old in 2035.

Chinese University of Hong Kong professor Willy Wo-Lap Lam said, “[Xi] is trying to convince the party that only he, Xi Jinping, has the political resources, the experience and the determination to pull China through...This is a big show for Xi Jinping to try to convince the senior cadres that he deserves support to remain supreme leader well beyond 10 years.”

The main economic strategy outlined in the communiqué is “dual circulation.” This strategy has already been promoted by Xi Jinping in recent months and involves an increasingly inward economic focus (the “domestic cycle”), which will be supplemented by external trade (the “international cycle”). Implementation models or other detailed strategies were not released. However, in line with the plan to strengthen China's domestic cycle, is an emphasis on innovation, modernization, and self-reliance, especially in fields of science and technology.

Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard cautioned, “There is no guarantee that efforts to boost self-sufficiency in specific sectors will succeed” and, even if it does, “pursuing self-sufficiency is (literally) a textbook way to depress productivity.” Current global tensions, increasing protectionism, and an ongoing trade war with the U.S., however, might make this domestic focus more of a necessity than a choice. It seems Chinese officials recognize this dynamic, focusing domestically while simultaneously urging other countries – especially the U.S. – to renew economic engagement.

Central Committee officials held a press conference on October 30 following the end of the Plenum and release of their communiqué. The Office of Financial Affairs' deputy director, Han Wenxiu, said, “Decoupling is basically not realistic, and there's no benefit for China or the U.S., or the entire world...Those who want decoupling are few. Those who want collaboration are far more.” He also asserted, “No matter how the international situation changes, we will never waver in our basic national policy of opening up. China will provide countries around the world with larger markets and more opportunities.”

Wang Zhigang, the science and technology minister, also indicated a continued need for international engagement. He said, “China’s technological innovation has never been closed innovation, and in the future it will not close its doors to innovate on its own.” Even acknowledging the global aspects of innovation, Wang still stressed the necessity of self-reliance. He said, “We need to improve our ability to create things independently because we cannot ask for or buy the core technologies from elsewhere.” He also pointed out that “it is the first time ever in the history of our party’s five-year plans…that [China] is placing the plans on science, technology, and innovation before all other sectors.”

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Wang Wenbin discussed the results of the Plenum during a press conference on October 30. He said: “The fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which was just concluded, released a communiqué, stating that China will remain committed to the new concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and inclusive development, pursue quality development, deepen supply-side structural reform, advance reform and innovation to meet people's increasing need for a better life, accelerate efforts to establish a new dual-cycle development pattern with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other, and basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. The communiqué mentioned 'reform' and 'opening-up' more than 20 times, pledging to further expand and deepen opening-up, establish new institutions for an open economy at a higher level, promote high quality BRI [Belt and Road Initiative] cooperation, and pursue win-win international cooperation. It sends out a clear signal that China will remain committed to deepening reform and opening-up and realizing win-win cooperation.”